mains2007

from above

Thriving against the predictions

 

At the very least, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s three-day official visit to China has contributed incrementally to the maturation and diversification of a bilateral relationship that has done hearteningly well over the last two decades, notwithstanding ideologically driven subjective interpretations that suggest the contrary. It resulted in the signing of ten documents, the most important of which was “A Shared Vision for the 21st Century,” and the ann ouncement of ten additional non-documentary outcomes. The key formulation, the defining theme of the visit was that the India-China relationship in this Asian century would have a “significant regional and global influence,” and further that the friendship and common development of the two largest developing countries would have “a positive influence on the future of the international system.” The vision document goes on to characterise India-China relations as a relationship of friendship and trust, based on equality, in which each partner is sensitive to the concerns and aspirations of the other, and not targeted at any other country. The Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity that was established during Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to India in April 2005 is certainly thriving against the trend of predictions by the ideologically allergic who can see only ‘trust deficits.’

There have been incremental political gains, notably China’s commitment to promote bilateral civilian nuclear cooperation consistent with its international commitments and its support for “India’s aspirations to play a greater role in the United Nations, including in the Security Council.” The planning of more top-level visits in 2008-2009, the decision to have the Foreign Ministers visit each other’s country in 2008, the establishment of a Business Leaders Forum, the holding of joint military training exercises, the launch of a joint medical mission, and the initiation of joint science and technology projects in four identified areas testify to the assurance, range, and depth the bilateral relationship has acquired. India-China relations might not have graduated to a stage where annual summits, on the India-Russia pattern, will be held. But the reality is that every few months, the top leaders of the two countries hold talks on the sidelines of multilateral meetings.

Economics, as Dr. Singh noted, has become a principal driver of the relationship; and the solid, sustained growth of the two largest developing countries against the backdrop of growing uncertainties in the world economy is “in the nature of being an international public good.” China’s, and India’s, investment in the other country may be nothing much to talk about yet — but bilateral trade is galloping ahead. China is already India’s second largest trading partner and the stage has been set for exploring the prospects of a Regional Trading Arrangement. The value of bilateral trade in 2007 was $38.6 billion. With the target of $20 billion set for 2008 reached two years ahead of schedule and the revised target of $40 billion by 2010 likely to be reached by 2008, an enhanced target of $60 billion by 2010 has been set during the visit. Some concern has been expressed over India recently running up a sizeable trade deficit with China, upwards of $10 billion in 2007. It is unlikely that this situation will be transformed any time soon. First, the issue relates to the structure of the bilateral trade. Secondly, as Dr. Singh noted in his address to Indian businesspersons in Beijing, while there were some elements in government policy that hurt the competitiveness of Indian industry and needed to be rectified, “the deficit has to be corrected…by building the strength of Indian industry…[which must] think big.” Thirdly, there are specific trade issues that need to be addressed by both sides. Finally, in this age of globalisation, it is the aggregate picture that matters for a large economy when trade deficits and surpluses are discussed.

 

It is worth recalling two decades on that the breakthrough that made all this possible was a political accord forged — at the initiative of Deng Xiaoping — during Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s December 1988 visit to China. The accord, which was elaborated and firmed up in bilateral agreements signed in 1993, 1996, and 2003, was that while the two sides would do their best to arrive at a fair, reasonable, and mutually acceptable settlement of the longstanding boundary dispute, they would maintain “peace and tranquillity” along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) pending a settlement. Meanwhile, the differences would not be allowed to obstruct the all-round development of India-China relations. Progress towards a package settlement, attempted in numerous discussions, Joint Working Group sessions, and 11 rounds of Special Representative-level talks, has been snail-paced. Interestingly, the Special Representatives, National Security Adviser M. K. Narayanan and Executive Vice Minister Bai Bingguo, have been re-instructed to “complete at an early date the task of arriving at an agreed framework of settlement.” This they must do on the basis of the Agreement on Political Parameters and Guiding Principles for the Settlement of India-China Boundary Question signed in April 2005. Nobody seriously expects the United Progressive Alliance government to pull out of its hat, before its elected term is over, a final package settlement of this highly sensitive question ‘left over by history.’ A fair, reasonable, and mutually acceptable boundary settlement can come only through give and take, by whatever name called. ‘Giving’ large areas of territory held, or agreeing to significant transfers of population across the LAC, does not seem to be politically feasible for either country. An agreed framework of settlement that is politically saleable will certainly be a big feather in the cap of the UPA government.

Corruption in NREGA: myths and reality

 

Jean Drèze, Reetika Khera & Siddhartha

 

 

 

Corruption can be eradicated from NREGA, and the way to do it is to enforce the transparency safeguards that are built into the Act and the guidelines.

 

 

 

 

 

The National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA), launched two years ago in 200 districts, is going through a critical learning phase. During this period there are bound to be many procedural problems, all the more so as the NREGA guidelines are very exacting. This does not detract from the fundamentally positive nature of this initiative, or from the possibility of making it a success. But it did give the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) good reasons to demand rem edial action when the programme came under its redoubtable scanner.

Contrary to media reports, the draft CAG report on NREGA does not present much evidence of large-scale embezzlement of funds, nor does it conclude that NREGA is “a failure.” The report focusses mainly on procedural lapses, and constructive ways to address them. This is a useful wake-up call, just a few weeks ahead of the extension of NREGA to the whole country.

The question remains whether NREGA funds actually reach the poor. In this connection, we report here some findings of recent “muster roll verification exercises” coordinated by the G.B. Pant Social Science Institute, Allahabad. The survey teams consisted of carefully-trained students from Delhi University and elsewhere. The muster rolls were selected through random sampling and obtained just before the survey, leaving little scope for window-dressing. The investigators interviewed the labourers listed in a particular muster roll and asked them to confirm the details of days worked and wages earned.

The methodology of muster roll verification was developed in Rajasthan in the context of the right to information movement. This learning process was also an opportunity to develop a range of transparency safeguards for public works schemes (such as the pro-active disclosure of muster rolls, regular maintenance of “job cards”, and social audits). Many of them have been incorporated in the Operational Guidelines of NREGA, and even in the Act itself. There is a good deal of informal evidence from Rajasthan that these safeguards can go a long way in preventing corruption. We have reported some of our own observations on this elsewhere (The Hindu, July 13, 2007).

This new series of verification exercises started in May-June 2007 in Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, in areas where we had found evidence of large-scale corruption just two years earlier, under the National Food For Work Programme (NFFWP). For instance, in the Surguja District of Chhattisgarh, there was virtually no check on the embezzlement of NFFWP funds at that time. The situation was so bad that one of us was constrained to describe NFFWP as a “Loot For Work Programme” (Times of India, July 2, 2005).

In the same district, we were interested to hear this year, from a wide range of sources, that the enactment of NREGA had led to a steep decline in the incidence of corruption. This was borne out by the muster roll verification exercises: in a random sample of 9 works implemented by gram panchayats, we found that 95 per cent of the wages that had been paid according to the muster rolls had actually reached the labourers concerned. A similar exercise conducted in Koriya, the neighbouring district, led to similar estimates of “leakages” in the labour component of NREGA — only 5 per cent or so.

In Jharkhand, detailed muster roll verification of NREGA works in five randomly-selected gram panchayats of Ranchi District suggested leakages of around 33 per cent. Clearly, this is totally unacceptable but even this high figure (one of the highest we found anywhere outside Orissa) would not justify the claim that the bulk of NREGA funds fails to reach the poor. Further, in Jharkhand too there was evidence of a gradual retreat of corruption compared with earlier years, when it was not uncommon to find that entire muster rolls had been manufactured from top to bottom.

Next we went to Tamil Nadu to participate in a social audit of NREGA in Villupuram District, conducted in July-August 2007. There we found much evidence of serious efforts to prevent the spread of corruption in NREGA. For instance, the government of Tamil Nadu has initiated an imaginative system of muster roll maintenance, whereby each labourer has to enter her signature or thumbprint in the muster roll every day by way of marking attendance. This ensures not only that the muster roll is available for public scrutiny at the worksite, as required by the NREGA guidelines, but also that large numbers of people actually see it every day. In this and other ways, much progress had evidently been made towards a leak-proof system. Unfortunately, it was not possible to quantify the leakages, as the Villupuram social audit did not include systematic muster roll verification exercises.

A brief follow-up visit to Andhra Pradesh enabled us to observe and appreciate various initiatives to prevent corruption in NREGA. For instance, the government of Andhra Pradesh has taken the bold step of paying all NREGA wages through post offices. This is an example of the “separation of payment agencies from implementing agencies,” recommended in the NREGA guidelines. This system virtually removes any incentive the implementing agencies have to fudge muster rolls, since the payments are beyond their reach. In addition, Andhra Pradesh has put in place a system of institutionalised social audits, involving routine verification of NREGA records through participatory processes. Judging from our brief visit, and from the social audit reports, these safeguards are quite effective. While various forms of petty corruption (such as bribes being taken by postmasters) have emerged from the social audits, there is no evidence of the sort of large-scale fraud that plagued public works schemes in Andhra Pradesh just a few years ago.

Rude shock

 

 

After these relatively upbeat discoveries, we had a rude shock in Orissa, where muster roll verification exercises were conducted in October 2007 for 30 randomly-selected worksites spread over three districts (Bolangir, Boudh and Kalahandi). The findings of this investigation have been reported elsewhere (The Hindu, November 20, 2007). Briefly, we found that Orissa had barely begun the transition from the “traditional system” of corruption in public works schemes (involving private contractors, mass fudging of muster rolls, and institutionalised kickbacks) towards a transparent and accountable system. The transparency safeguards had been sabotaged by vested interests and the system was virtually unverifiable. In Bolangir and Kalahandi, the infamous “PC system” (whereby various functionaries demand fixed percentages of scheme funds) continued and seemed to absorb around 22 per cent of NREGA funds. The silver lining is that even in this corruption-ridden region, there were many indications of positive change. As checks and balances are put in place, the system is becoming harder for vested interests to manipulate, and corruption is coming down. The clampdown on corruption has recently intensified, after Orissa earned a bad name for mass corruption in NREGA.

After this, it was refreshing (literally) to head for the hills of Himachal Pradesh in December 2007. A sharp contrast emerged there between the two survey districts — Kangra and Sirmaur. In Kangra, we found a remarkable culture of transparency in public records, including NREGA. The muster rolls and other NREGA records were usually available for public scrutiny at the gram panchayat office, often in computerised form. Further, with one major exception (Minta gram panchayat), there was an almost perfect match between the muster rolls and workers’ testimonies.

In Sirmaur, however, there was evidence of significant fudging of muster rolls. In some cases, this had been done (illegally) to augment the material component of the scheme, without appropriating any funds, but there were also cases where embezzlement was involved.

More extensive investigations are obviously required to consolidate these findings, but even small-scale surveys of this kind yield rich insights. All the relevant information, including muster rolls and verification sheets, is available on request. These records would be useful reading for those who believe that NREGA funds are systematically going down the drain. Equally enlightening are people’s testimonies. No sensitive person can fail to be moved by the words they have used to describe how NREGA employment helps them to live with dignity, feed their children and send them to school.

Behind the diversity of these findings is one overarching lesson. Corruption can be eradicated from NREGA, and the way to do it is to enforce the transparency safeguards that are built into the Act and the guidelines. Along with this, swift action needs to be taken whenever corruption is exposed. This is not the time for a loss of nerve.

(The authors are associated with the G.B. Pant Social Science Institute, Allahabad University.)

“Our methods for teaching of reading are quite obsolete”

 

Meera Srinivasan

 

 

 

More attention to Classes I and II, focus on basic reading and arithmetic skills in lower classes, better teacher training and stronger State Councils of Educational Research and Training are the immediate goals to be achieved in the realm of school education, says NCERT directorKrishna Kumarin an interview. Excerpts:

 

 

 

 

 

 

— FILE Photo: V. Ganesan

Krishna Kumar: “Good teaching always situates learning in the child’s context, whatever the topic… teaching succeeds when it offers a ‘taste of understanding’ which is wholesome, creative and enjoyable.

 

In 2007, the NCERT set up a Reading Cell in order to provide academic support to the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA) for improvement in the pedagogy of reading in Classes I and II. Can you explain the idea behind this?

 

 

Our Reading Development Cell is now fully functional. We have housed it in the Central Institute of Educational Technology (CIET) — a constituent unit of NCERT — in order to ensure that modern technology is actively used for promotion and advocacy of a new approach to the teaching of reading in the early primary classes. NCERT decided to focus on reading because reading is the heart of every subject and the children’s overall progress depends on their ability to read and to derive joy from reading. Sadly, the methods used for the teaching of reading in the early classes are quite obsolete and incapable of sustaining the child’s motivation. Rather, these traditional methods turn reading into a chore. Visit any primary school and you will inevitably hear collective chanting of the letters of the alphabet. The whole process is so irrational and exhausting that it is hardly surprising to find children unable to read comfortably even in Class V. Even those children who succeed in learning how to read don’t become habitual readers. Traditional approaches don’t allow us to recognise the little child’s search for meaning. Modern pedagogies of reading lay stress on starting with meaningful units, such as words and sentences and bring in analytic features of language later. Emphasis is also laid on linking reading with storytelling and children’s own emotive writing. Children want to make sense of the world in every activity. Language is a remarkable sense-making faculty we humans are gifted with.

Children’s introduction to reading should enable them to expand the scope of their innate linguistic competence, in an atmosphere of joy and encouragement. That is the perspective of National Curriculum Framework (NCF 2005) which recommends a language-across-the curriculum perspective.

The States were expected to take a similar initiative and to establish their own Reading Cells. How much progress has been made on this front so far?

 

 

NCERT is trying to persuade all States to set up their own Reading Cells, but the progress has been rather slow. We are not surprised or disappointed by the slow initial progress because the focus is so new even though the problem is so old and widespread. Our universities have failed to keep abreast of scientific research in early reading. In fact, this area has been ignored for more than three decades during which important advances have been made in psycholinguistics and neurology to explain how children learn to read and how we can nurture their innate strengths with the help of sensible curricular strategies. The SSA units in several States have responded positively to NCERT’s call to focus on early reading.

We are pleased that the SSA in Tamil Nadu is also considering our suggestion and has taken the first steps by creating a small group. States like Tamil Nadu are quite aware of the nature of the problem, and they also have access to good local groups capable of providing support. For instance, Tulika has published excellent reading material for children which needs to be used widely. One problem is that the importance of books for the youngest age-group is not fully recognised or understood. Card-based strategies can never give the same results even though they can give some short-term satisfaction. We must appreciate the nature of systemic reform required to create a reading culture in our schools and society. Institutions like the National Book Trust, NCERT and State bodies must come together to create a book-oriented environment in every town and village. Kerala has set up an institute of children’s literature to liberate school education from a textbook-centred approach. NCERT’s Reading Cell will soon bring out a graded reading series consisting of nearly 40 titles, divided into four levels. The idea is to give little children the joy of negotiating a book and finding another one slightly more challenging. Reading requires so much more exercise.

How do you assess the progress of the SSA? Has it achieved its goals? What role has it been assigned in the 11th Plan?

 

 

SSA has a very varied picture in different States. In certain States it has made very good progress. Especially in States where the Panchayati Raj system is in good health and the Village Education Committees are working properly, SSA has come close to attaining its major goal of bringing every child to school. In States where village-level bodies are sluggish, the picture is poor. However, the question of quality applies uniformly to the entire country. SSA was envisaged as a movement, and it has indeed generated an enormous amount of social and professional energy. The challenge now is to institutionalise this energy so that the gains don’t become a pleasant memory. Institutionalisation of SSA’s gains requires drastic systemic reforms of the kind recommended in NCF. The focus group appointed under NCF to work out systemic reforms was chaired by Professor Shantha Sinha who has described rural children’s plight as a ‘battle for school.’ There are far too many obstacles that the rigid school system poses to rural children. NCERT hopes to establish a rural education cell to study some of these problems, especially those resulting from poverty, migration and the agrarian crisis which has hit the peasantry in many parts of the country. For SSA to succeed, State governments must strengthen their SCERTs and District Institutes of Education and Training (DIETs). The 11th Plan offers an unprecedented increase in funds available for children’s education although we still have a long way to go to match what the East Asian and Western countries spend on their children and schools. The 11th Plan also proposes to move in the direction of taking SSA upwards to cover Class X. Clearly, the immediate goal is to improve enrolment and retention in the upper primary classes where the present situation is quite worrisome, especially in the context of girls. Improving the quality of pedagogy, pedagogic material, and teacher training presents quite a canvas of tasks to be attended to in the immediate future. In this list, the last one seems most difficult, considering both the long-term neglect and the recent commercialisation of teacher training. We must revisit the Chattopadhyaya Commission’s recommendations given in the mid-1980s and start undoing some of the confused steps taken over the 1990s if we want to utilise the financial outlay offered in the 11th Plan.

There has been some discussion on the uniformity of syllabus in States like Tamil Nadu which continues to provide four distinct streams in school education. What is your view on this?

 

 

This matter was brought to our attention a few months ago. We reminded the Tamil Nadu government that this kind of reform has been long overdue. Way back in 1966, the Kothari commission had recommended a composite school model covering Classes I to XII. It is a sad reflection of our consensus-building capacity that 40 years later quite a few States have varying school structures. Maharashtra, for instance, has seven years of elementary education, which is hardly in keeping with the Constitution’s promise of eight years of elementary schooling.

In States like Tamil Nadu, more than one Board conducts examinations. In the early 1990s, a central government committee had recommended that every State should have only one Board. It will be a good idea for Tamil Nadu to move in this direction, but then it must do so along with several other things. Without a specialised workforce being nurtured under SCERT, quality goals cannot be achieved in different sectors of school education. Universities and colleges also must join in the effort to improve the quality of elementary education. We had expected that Tamil Nadu’s performance in NCERT’s mid-term survey of Class V achievement levels would be better than it was in the base-line survey conducted in 2002. That has not happened, but I am quite aware of the enthusiasm I now see for certain reforms such as amalgamation of the four streams you mentioned. I also realise that there is considerable resistance to it and scepticism as well. The NCF provides a very cohesive view on how syllabus and textbooks should be designed and dealt with in the classroom at different stages of education.

To talk about a higher or lower standard syllabus is to miss the heart of a child-centred approach. There is so much stress on our children today precisely because we don’t recognise individual differences and we want every child to be taught and examined the same way. No wonder our system is actually as cruel as Taare Zameen Par shows. NCF asks us to take into account the child’s perspective and see what knowledge, which skills should be offered to children at what point in their lives. I am very happy that a popular film like Taare Zameen Par is spreading this message, but the system of education has a long way to go in the NCF direction.

We need to provide flexibility and room for initiative in all spheres of the system. This year, the CBSE examination is expected to feature at least a small proportion of questions which don’t require rote answers. The Kerala Board is also moving in this direction. The real issue is not whether syllabi should be uniform or different. Good teaching always situates learning in the child’s context, whatever the topic. To use a term Professor Yashpal, who led the NCF process, has coined, teaching succeeds when it offers a ‘taste of understanding’ which is wholesome, creative and enjoyable. If this does not happen, schools will only traumatise children with a burden of information and the fear of failure or unsatisfactory performance in the examination.

 Superpower under challenge

 

India’s 72-run win in the third Test at Perth is not just an encore of its giant-killing prowess that saw it end Australia’s unbroken Test-winning sequence of 16 at Kolkata’s Eden Gardens in 2001. It does not just stop the world champion’s unbeaten run lasting 27 Tests that began more than two years ago. The victory at Perth is special because it bolsters India’s recently acquired reputation as a side that can deliver outside the sub-continent . Beginning 2006, it has won Tests in Kingston, Johannesburg, Nottingham, and now at the WACA where the last time the home team was undone was 11 years ago. The victories in Kingston and Nottingham were series-clinching efforts against the West Indies and England; and the upset at Johannesburg was India’s first Test win in South Africa. Perth witnessed an inspiring comeback after cricket’s reputation took a demoralising blow at Sydney and India failed to hold the fort in the end, seeming to crumble mentally under pressure. Under sporting conditions at the WACA, an accomplished batting line-up — reinvigorated by the inclusion of Virendra Sehwag, who should have played the first two Tests, and continuing to feature the world’s best in Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid, and V.V.S. Laxman — was able to combine forces with a vibrant trio of young pacemen to winning effect. Australia was beaten at its own game, although, as Ricky Ponting has suggested, it might have unwittingly made it easier for India by misreading the conditions and omitting the left-arm spinner Brad Hogg.

Although they lost, Ponting’s men redeemed themselves in the third Test by showing sportsmanship, which was in scarce supply at the Sydney Cricket Ground. The Indians regrouped and demonstrated both resilience and team spirit. Secondly, while Australia is indisputably the best Test side in the world, its superpower status is beginning to come under challenge, with bowling weaknesses showing up in the post-Glenn McGrath-Shane Warne era along with chinks in the batting line-up that other sides will be studying keenly. Thirdly, India has found an exemplary leader in Kumble who capped his feat of crossing 600 Test wickets with outstanding captaincy, beginning with the bold decision to bat first. He marshalled his resources intelligently to make up for the absence (owing to injury) of his frontline pacemen. His confidence in the future was brilliantly upheld by Irfan Pathan, who has rediscovered his swing and whose batting provides the side with good options; by Rudra Pratap Singh, who with his sharpness, swing, and bounce has demonstrated that he is a threat to batsmen everywhere; and by Ishant Sharma, whose ability to seam the ball both ways and extract bounce around the off-stump has been a revelation. Finally, India has got its balance of forces, the old and the new, right. The series has come alive, with everything pointing to a rousing finale at Adelaide.

 Growing confidence in the euro

 

The eurozone has expanded to 15 countries after Malta and Cyprus adopted the European Union’s common currency in January. The entry of the Mediterranean islands, and Slovenia in 2007, is in line with the expectation that among eurozone outsiders the smaller economies would meet the so-called convergence criteria sooner than their diversified and larger counterparts. The latest development coincides with the steady rise of the euro as the second global currency after the US dollar, with over 25 per cent share in the world’s foreign exchange reserves. The growing tendency among third-country governments to spread the risk and hold an increasing proportion of their forex reserves in euro is due to the eurozone’s global attractiveness as the world’s largest trading destination and its stable currency. The US dollar recently dipped to a record eight-year low against the euro, triggering a rethink in some Asian countries on the dollar as the sole currency peg for exchange rates. In particular, the eurozone is said to be better placed to respond to demands from emerging economies and oil rich states.

The single currency — first introduced as a unit of account in 1999 and as banknotes and coins in 2002 — enables consumers (about 320 million) in the 15 states to compare prices of goods and services and do away with the cost of changing currency for travel within the euro area. For the 12 non-eurozone states in the EU, their ability to influence common policies, which affect decision-making domestically, has been restricted. This is a considerable price to pay in a highly integrated region. Hence, leaders in the accession states of the 2004 enlargement, besides Romania and Bulgaria, should eschew nationalist and populist rhetoric on the question of euro adoption, although they have legitimate concerns about enforcing curbs on public spending, a precondition for membership. The consolidation of the eurozone makes the United Kingdom’s reasoning for its opt-out decision much less convincing, besides diminishing its own financial and economic clout on the European stage. Sweden and Denmark, where the euro was rejected in popular referenda in the 1990s, but nevertheless remain putative members of the eurozone, should create the political climate for formal euro entry and exert their weight on the policy framework.

 Will war lead to peace in Sri Lanka?

 

Ram Manikkalingam

 

 

 

With the phoney ceasefire over and the Sri Lankan military pressing in on the LTTE’s northern heartland, three distinct scenarios are possible. But in all of them, the constructive role friends of Sri Lanka, in the region and outside, can play is the same.

 

 

 

 

 

Sri Lanka’s phoney peace is over. By abrogating the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, the Sri Lankan government has finally proclaimed what has been a reality for two years — the effective end of the ceasefire brokered by the Norwegians six years ago. The Sinhala-dominated government and the Tamil Tigers have decided that war is not only inevitable but also required, before any fresh political process can emerge. President Mah inda Rajapaksa has promised to eradicate terrorism. His brother, Defence Secretary Gothabaya Rajapaksa, has promised to kill Velupillai Prabakaran, the leader of the Tamil Tigers. Scenting victory, the Sri Lankan military is pressing in on the Tiger heartland of the north on several fronts, while targeting Tiger leaders for assassination.

Meanwhile, the LTTE leader has proclaimed that only military force will work to change the government’s policy. He has directed attacks against hard military targets such as Air Force bases and soft political targets like ministers and civil guardsmen. The Tamil Tigers are using a combination of hit and run attacks, bombings and assassinations to deter and delay the government’s impending assault.

The Sri Lankan government has newly acquired armaments — multi-barrel rocket launchers, heavier artillery, precision guided missiles, and bunker busters — and has recruited 30,000 new recruits into its armed forces. The Tamil Tigers have developed an air wing, an effective sea wing, and have heavily infiltrated population centres in the Sinhala-dominated South. This next round of violence will lead to the deaths of thousands, the displacement of hundreds of thousands, and the destruction of property on a larger scale than what we have ever witnessed before in Sri Lanka.

The LTTE can emerge defeated, weakened, or emboldened from this fighting. The Tigers will be defeated if the government succeeds in ejecting them from territory they control and in eliminating their leadership. They will be weakened if the government ejects the Tigers from territory they control but they can still continue as an insurgent organisation capable of guerrilla operations and terrorist attacks. The LTTE will be emboldened, of course, if it succeeds in bringing the government offensive to a standstill. While these three scenarios are very different, the role that friends of Sri Lanka, in the region and outside, can play in helping to move the country towards a stable peace is the same in all of them.

The first scenario is the government deals a decisive blow to the LTTE — ejecting it from territory it controls and eliminating its leadership. The hope, in this scenario, is that a Sri Lanka liberated from war will find the will to seek peace. Sinhala hardliners fearful of Tamil autonomy in LTTE hands will be less opposed to granting it after a Tiger defeat. Tamil hardliners seeking a separate state will stop doing so. This will create the opportunity for a new politics of co-existence among all communities on the island. But the fear is that military victory may instead embolden Sinhala hardliners to reject any concession to the minorities — Tamil and Muslim — compelling them to live at the sufferance of the majority. War will give way, not to peace and reconciliation, but to bitterness and recrimination. Sri Lanka may not have war but neither will it have a just peace.

The second scenario points to a weakened, though not defeated, LTTE. It is ejected from territory it controls, but continues as a formidable insurgent organisation capable of guerrilla operations and terrorist attacks. The hope here is that both parties will declare victory and call a truce. The government will view further efforts at defeating the LTTE as too costly, and the Tigers will accept that they cannot get what they want by military means alone. Each will give up on its preferred political objective. The government will give up on centralising all power in Colombo and the LTTE will give up on the establishment of a separate state. The result will be the classic federal compromise that most people see as the only reasonable solution. The fear is that neither party will have the political sagacity to stop at a partial victory or defeat. Rather the Sri Lankan government will press on in the hope of eliminating the LTTE permanently. And the Tamil Tigers will refuse to accept a new balance of power where they do not control territory and administer populations. Each side will seek to continue the war. Neither will prevail.

The final scenario is a bloody stalemate — where the government fails to eject the LTTE and the Tamil Tigers fail to make military headway themselves. The government will unleash all it has, but will not dislodge the LTTE from territory it controls. The Tamil Tigers will hold firm but they will not be able to expand their hold on territory or population. The result will be a stalemate, but after spilling a lot of blood. The hope is that after much cost to the people of the country, the government and the Tamil Tigers will have relearned the lesson that war alone will not alter the political dynamic of the country. They will initiate a political process that will keep the strengths and redress the weaknesses of the previous one. This process, with a combination of internal acceptance and external support, will get somewhere. The fear in this scenario is that a combination of Sinhala extremism and political rivalry in the South and Tamil extremism and militarism in the North will prevent the parties from seizing the opportunity to move forward toward a fresh process. Instead, they will continue seeking military breakthroughs only to be further mired in a bloodier stalemate.

While these three scenarios are distinct, the role friends of Sri Lanka, in the region and outside, can play in helping to move the country towards the more hopeful scenarios, and away from the fearful ones, is the same.

The Sri Lankan government as a responsible state in the international system has some basic obligations even while fighting an insurgency. These include upholding the human rights of all its citizens, irrespective of their ethnic affiliation; respecting the laws of war; providing humanitarian assistance to those affected by the conflict, including refugees; and ensuring access to humanitarian organisations, local and international, seeking to assist those affected by the armed violence. Sri Lanka’s friends can help it fulfil these responsibilities.

At the same time, the world can also impress upon the Tamil Tigers that while they are no state, they must still respect the laws of war as an armed group engaged in a conflict. These include, but are not limited to, refraining from deliberately targeting civilians, ensuring humanitarian access to those affected by war, and refraining from recruiting children. They must emphasise that the future role of the Tamil Tigers as serious political interlocutors in a peace settlement will depend on how they conduct themselves during war.

Sri Lanka’s friends can also prod the two parties to lay out their respective visions of a political settlement without evading it. These must not be the reiteration of tired old positions by both sides — where the LTTE repeats its call for an interim administration that only it controls, and the Sri Lankan government reiterates its commitment to a unitary state that only it controls. Rather it must be an imaginative effort to describe both an end goal — where they would like to see the country end up — and a pathway for getting there — how they would like to set about achieving it. This will invariably involve a permanent political settlement, an interim structure for getting there, a process for disarmament on the part of the LTTE and demilitarisation on the part of the state, and finally, a mechanism for post-war reconstruction that can rebuild the shattered lives of all communities.

Finally, the world can also help amplify Sri Lankan voices that support a solution that respects the concerns of all communities equally within an undivided country. These include the Muslims, the upcountry Tamils, and the left-liberal political actors, whose significant presence has been ignored, precisely because they have not been obstacles to peace.

While none of these steps are easy, they are also not impossible. But the window of opportunity for initiating them will be very brief, immediately after the next round of fighting ends, and just before both parties forget about the bloody futility of war. While the belligerents make war, those who are seeking peace in Sri Lanka from within and those who wish to help from without must begin their plans for making peace. The people of Sri Lanka deserve another chance.

(Ram Manikkalingam ( r.manikkalingam@uva.nl) is a Visiting Professor of Political Science at the University of Amsterdam and an advisor to the Humanitarian Dialogue Centre in Geneva. He served as senior advisor in the peace process to the previous President of Sri Lanka.)

 Russia’s new energy strategy

 

Vladimir Radyuhin

 

 

 

Two major deals with Bulgaria last week are seen to be the last link in President Putin’s plan to consolidate Russia’s control of energy flows to Europe.

 

 

 

 

 

Russia has tightened its grip on the European energy market, winning Bulgaria’s support for a major new pipeline to export natural gas to Europe.

President Vladimir Putin struck a deal to build the South Stream pipeline during a visit to Bulgaria last week. South Stream, a joint venture between Russia’s Gazprom and Italy’s Eni set up last year, calls for the construction of a 900-km pipeline under the Black Sea that will carry 30 billion cubic metres of gas a year from Russia to Bulgaria, from where it would split to Greece and southern Italy and to Romania, Hungary, and Austria before reaching its final destination in northern Italy.

In another major deal, Russia and Bulgaria agreed to set up a company to build and operate a new oil pipeline from the Black Sea port of Burgas in Bulgaria to Greece’s Alexandroupolis on the Aegean. This will allow Russia to increase its oil exports across the Black Sea, which have been constrained by the congested Bosphorus Straits.

The Bulgarian deals fill the last missing link in Mr. Putin’s ambitious plan to consolidate Russia’s control of energy flows to Europe. In less than a year, Moscow has struck deals with half a dozen nations to open a new energy transportation route from Central Asia to Europe.

Last May, Mr. Putin signed agreements with the leaders of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan to build a new pipeline and expand an existing one that would increase Central Asian gas exports to Russia from 60 billion to 80-90 billion cubic metres a year by 2010. The bulk of these additional gas volumes will be pumped through the South Stream pipeline scheduled to be completed in 2013. Last May, Mr. Putin reached an agreement with Kazakhstan to expand a pipeline carrying its oil to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, from where it will be fed by tankers into the Bugras-Alexandroupolis pipeline.

South Stream stands out as a particularly landmark achievement for Russia. It deals a fatal blow to the U.S.-pushed Nabucco pipeline project to deliver Central Asian and Caspian gas to Europe bypassing Russia.

“Ten years of efforts to set up Nabucco have fallen through,” said Dr. Leonid Grigoriev of the Institute of Energy and Finances. “There is just not enough gas around to fill the Nabucco pipe.”

U.S. efforts fail

 

 

The United States, which plans to set up three military bases in Bulgaria, had pressed Sofia to say no to South Stream. After U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza publicly urged Bulgaria to choose Nabucco over South Stream last month, Bulgaria promised to heed the American advice and said it needed more time to study the Russian proposal. However, following dramatic late night talks with Mr. Putin’s delegation, the Bulgarian government inked the deal on Friday.

South Stream will allow Russia to expand its strategic foothold in the Balkans that was critically weakened after the break-up of Yugoslavia. Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica on Friday publicly backed a Russian offer of an energy pact that could see Serbia included in the South Stream pipeline in return for Gazprom getting a stake in Serbia’s oil monopoly NIS. Earlier, Greece expressed willingness to join South Stream.

The European Union already imports almost half of its natural gas and 30 per cent of its oil from Russia. South Stream and North Stream, another major gas pipeline Russia is planning to build jointly with Germany under the Baltic Sea, will further consolidate Moscow’s dominant position in the European energy market. The new pipelines will also weaken Russia’s dependence on export gas pipelines running through Ukraine and Belarus.

American strategists say the Russian onslaught is undermining U.S. positions in Europe.

“Moscow is pursuing a comprehensive strategy that could increase Europe’s political and economic dependence on Russian energy,” Dr. Ariel Cohen of Heritage Foundation wrote in a November backgrounder. “Such dependence could negatively affect transatlantic relations, common values, goals, strategic objectives, and security policies. Without a policy dialogue and coordination between Washington and European capitals, Europe’s strategic drift away from the United States will continue unabated.”

The caste question

 

The article “Discrimination for dummies: V. 2008” (Jan. 18) gives a refreshingly different perspective of India’s hierarchical caste system. It is journalism at its best in the midst of the triumphalist din that India is on the brink of global success with a record growth rate of almost 10 per cent and is poised to become a superpower. Respectable elites profess equal rights without realising that they are meaningless in a society in which opportunities are unequal. For all the talk of the fading away of the caste consciousness, it is no secret that depressed caste people are hated and harassed. As a result of their growing awareness and assertion over the past few decades, they have access to the constitutionally guaranteed reservation in education and employment. That a vast majority of those at the bottom of the caste system suffer from dehumanising poverty and lead a miserable existence is no excuse to do away with positive discrimination.

G. David Milton,

Maruthancode

 

* * *

 

Caste discrimination goes back a few thousand years, and it cannot be undone by a few decades of half-hearted reservation. Till such time as there are caste-based matrimonial advertisements, caste-based reservation should continue. Given the stranglehold of the upper castes over the media, it is not surprising that AIIMS-type campaign journalism proliferates. One cannot help feeling that the consent for economic liberalisation is a sly way of undermining reservation.

 

Sanjay Ghosh,

New Delhi

 

* * *

 

Caste in India is a hard reality and caste consciousness is deepening by the day. Reservation has surely made a change to the caste scenario though not at the expected pace. Would anyone have imagined two decades ago that a Dalit would become Chief Minister of the most populous Indian State?

 

P. Rajen,

New Delhi

 

* * *

 

The article rightly points to the media approach to caste which misses the broader picture. To call what happened at Khairlanji — a national shame — an incident is to undermine the gravity of the offence. Despite some educational progress by Dalits, they continue to face discrimination in different walks of life in some form or the other. There is an urgent need to understand the social malaise of caste discrimination in its right perspective. The media must let the truth prevail.

 

Sunil Kumar,

New Delhi

Civilised society cannot encourage discrimination on the basis of one’s birth. Just as we allow religious conversions by law, we should encourage caste conversions to protect the most backward from exploitation by political groups in the name of reservation.

G.L.N. Murthy,

Hyderabad

 

* * *

 

The article is a count-by-count rebuttal of the lies being spread by the media and a section of the elite. The overzealous media fail to see merit in affirmative action for the disadvantaged and feed the public with stories of upper caste victimisation. Unless the media present Dalit issues in a right perspective, bad blood will continue to flow.

 

Bankim Samaddar,

Faridabad

 

* * *

 

Cries of ‘reverse discrimination’ and ‘dwindling privileges’ are a sinister misrepresentation engineered by the powerful elitist lobby. Such jargons are dished out by the privileged only to create confusion among the naive and slow down corrective action. Just because our economic system is unable to achieve equal opportunities for all and eliminate inequalities, we cannot withdraw the helping hand of extending reservation to the weakest sections of our social fabric.

 

Kasim Sait,

Chennai

 

* * *

 

Even though ancient Brahmins were responsible for providing religious and moral sanction to the caste system, Brahmins today have no role in the injustices and inhuman cruelties inflicted on Dalits. It is only those sections which feel their economic and social status is threatened by the empowerment of Dalits that perpetrate atrocities against them.

 

S.P. Asokan,

Cuddalore

 

* * *

 

While Brahmins may not be the ones abusing Dalits in this day and age, it cannot be denied that caste oppression is the creation of Brahmins of the bygone past. To eradicate casteism, we should do away with caste-based reservation and ban the use of the word “caste” in the media. Let reservation be need-based: 40 per cent for the socially and economically backward, and 15 per cent each for only the socially backward and only the economically backward. Thirty per cent of education and employment should be merit-based.

 

Koti Sreekrishna,

Mason, Ohio

 

* * *

 

It is no one’s case that Dalits are not marginalised or that they do not need all the help that can be made available by the state. What the WSJ article rightly termed reverse discrimination takes place not in backward regions but in the highest echelons of Indian academia. Its effects are felt severely in higher education where the deserving are denied admission in favour of those who are less competent. Offering sops at such levels is not only ineffective in uplifting the poor Dalits of rural India but also introduces severe distortions.

As regards the Brahmin super-convention in Pune, it may be pointed out that the convention was held on private premises and did not disrupt normal life. No one has any issues with even the Shivaji Park meeting except that Mumbai is ill-equipped to cater to such a large gathering that forces the offices in and around the park to remain closed on December 6.

Hrishikesh Vidyadhar Ganu,

Kozhikode

 

* * *

 

The huge success of the BSP in the Uttar Pradesh elections is a perfect example of the fact that it is not Brahmins whom the Dalits consider their oppressors. It is time for Dalit sympathisers to identify the real oppressors and stop blaming the upper castes for everything.  

 A string of political frauds

 

The last time he survived a confidence vote in the Assembly, in July 2007, Goa Chief Minister Digambar Kamat needed extra-constitutional help from Speaker Pratapsinh Rane. This time, in the face of another crisis situation for the Congress-led government he is heading, Mr. Kamat has turned to Governor S.C. Jamir for help beyond the provisions of the Constitution. By proroguing the Assembly on the advice of the Cabinet, even before the House could pass the Appropriation Bill, the Governor was clearly buying political time for the Kamat government. With three members of the Nationalist Congress Party and one Independent withdrawing support, a defeat in the vote on the Bill would have been fatal for the seven-month-old government. By getting the Assembly prorogued, and not merely adjourned sine die, the government achieved two things: first, there will now be a longer interval between now and the next sitting of the House, and secondly, the decision-making power on convening the House is taken out of the hands of the Speaker, whose son Vishwajit Rane is the Independent who withdrew support. In political bargaining, time is of the essence, and it remains to be seen if the carrot-and-stick method of mixing appeasement with threats will pay dividends. The four dissidents are the target of intense negotiations, with the national leadership of the NCP warning its MLAs of disqualification under the anti-defection law. In the event of these manoeuvres succeeding, the tottering government may well get a fresh lease of life.

No matter how this political drama plays out, the Governor’s blatantly partisan decision is cause for serious concern. Mr. Jamir conspired with the government to delay a floor test when the proper course of action would have been to expedite such a test as the government’s majority was clearly in doubt. By acting as a political agent of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance ruling at the Centre, Mr. Jamir has again revived the debate on the proper constitutional role of the Governor in a federal set-up. Although the Supreme Court through the Bommai judgment has effectively put an end to any blatant misuse of Article 356, the post of the Governor remains a potential instrument for political mischief. Each time the Kamat government survives a crisis, it is the Constitution that takes a beating. Even if Mr. Kamat overcomes the current difficulties, it is only a matter of time before another crisis overtakes the rickety coalition that he heads. In its desperation to cling to power, the Congress-led government is putting the Constitution and legislative procedures continually to test in Goa.

Check on insider trading

 

A recent proposal by the capital market regulator, SEBI, to check insider trading in shares calls for careful consideration even as it bristles with some practical difficulties. Its main aim is to force insiders to surrender to the company short-term profits made by them from transactions relating to the scrips. Specifying a time span of six months, the regulator has suggested that any “short-swing profits” accruing to an insider within that period either through a buy or a sell transaction will have to be passed on to the company. With such a regulation in place, company insiders will be discouraged from taking advantage of the information they have access to and profit from short-term swings. In the regulator’s view, insiders are expected to have a long-term investment horizon, not to make short-term investment decisions for speculative gain. The implication is that such transactions would be based on at least some level of superior access to information, whether material or not. The term “insider” is proposed to cover not only the top management but also all directors of the company and all officers who are the beneficial owners of at least 10 per cent of the company’s equity shares. Another alternative is to enlarge the definition to include, apart from the officers of the company, all beneficial owners with a holding in excess of 10 per cent, singly or in concert. Either way, the concept of designated insider will be narrower than the existing concept of a deemed insider.

The idea of making a share market participant disgorge ill-gotten gains is not new to capital market regulation in India or elsewhere. SEBI’s order of disgorgement against well known depositories and depository participants who allegedly submitted multiple applications in a few public offers has been appealed against. As in the developed world, in India too the need to speed up quasi-judicial processes is well recognised especially where they relate to matters such as insider trading. It has been made amply clear that a direction to surrender short-term gains carries no implication or admission of any form of guilt. Secondly, the mere fact of the trade will be sufficient for surrendering short-term profits. Finally, liability will be imposed without any wrongfulness being established. However, after notification, the new regulatory measure is almost certain to face roadblocks, including legal challenges. There will be genuine difficulties in keeping out of the new regulation’s ambit certain exempted categories such as employees’ stock options and shares arising out of inheritances. On the whole, SEBI needs to be commended for pragmatically addressing a problem that cannot be tackled by existing laws alone

 IT opportunities & challenges in Russia

 

Vladimir Radyuhin

 

 

 

 

 

---

Russia was a late starter on the IT market, but is fast catching up. Last year, it emerged as the third largest outsourcing destinations after India and China

---

 

 

When people in India or elsewhere in the world use a scanner or a digital camera to convert a pile of documents into computer-readable and editable texts they more likely than not use software developed by Russian programmers. FineReader, an Optical Character Recognition technology produced by Russia’s ABBYY company is today shipped with scanning devices made by leading manufacturers such as Xerox, Panasonic and Fujitsu.

Russia was a late starter on the information technology market, but it is fast catching up and may soon pose a serious challenge to global IT leaders, including India. After visiting India’s “Silicon Valley” in Bangalore in December 2004, President Vladimir Putin earmarked $2 billion for IT development and pushed for vast tax breaks to help businessmen in his country create “Russian Bangalores.” Last year the Russian government launched the construction of seven major technology parks in the country: IT firms will be prominently represented there.

Driven by the oil boom

 

 

The Russian oil boom is driving the domestic IT sector to grow nearly three times faster than the rest of the economy, at about 25 per cent annually, which is the highest growth rate in the world. Meanwhile, software exports have been growing at the rate of 40 to 50 per cent annually over the last few years. The Russian IT sector expanded in value terms from just over $0.5 billion in 1999 to $18 billion in 2007. Now it is set to grow to $40 billion by 2010.

Last year Russia emerged as the third largest outsourcing destination after India and China. Even though it is still a distant third, exports are growing at a breathtaking pace. They crossed the $1 billion mark in 2005, and are projected to grow to $13 billion by 2010.

What spurs this growth is the high quality of Russian technical specialists. Russia still boasts a world-class system of science education. Almost 50 per cent of Russian students major in technology, science or engineering — which is far more than in India, China, Japan or the U.S. Russian science graduates spend between five and six years at university before entering the workforce. This ensures a more thorough training. Russia has 20 times more scientists per capita than India, and up to 40 per cent more scientists per capita than Germany, France or the United Kingdom, according to Forrester Research. Russians consistently win top prizes at international programming competitions. There is not a single high-tech company in New York that does not have a Russian in a top executive position. In some departments at Microsoft, Russian is the main working language. The Google empire was founded by Russian-born Sergei Brin, who is today the second richest American under 40.

Today Western companies are setting up shop in Russia to tap Russian talent. Global giants such as Microsoft, IBM, Cisco, Dell, Boeing, Motorola, Siemens, and Hewlett Packard have opened software development centres in Russia. Intel and Sun have in Russia their largest programming units outside the U.S.

India’s presence

 

 

India is about the only country whose IT companies are conspicuous by their absence on the Russian market. I-Flex Solutions is the sole exception: two years ago it set up a branch in Russia. Some other companies, like Infosys, have established a client base in Russia, but do not have local offices.

Indian IT companies have a rather condescending view of the Russian software industry as being no match to India in terms of volumes and costs. To be sure, India’s vast English-speaking workforce dwarfs that of Russia.

But Russian providers have important advantages over their Indian competitors: they offer high-end software and embedded software product development, which acts as a differentiator from low-price offerings from Indian companies.

“Solid training and high technical skills of our personnel enables Russian companies to develop sophisticated, comprehensive projects, which is a trademark of the Russian IT industry,” says Natalia Khvatova, marketing director Russia & CIS, Luxoft.

Luxoft is Russia’s largest provider of high-end IT outsourcing services and product development to global companies such as Boeing, Deutsche Bank, Dell, IBM, Microsoft, UBS, T-Mobile, Alcatel, and Areva.

Many Russian software companies have overtaken Indian providers as far as costs and workforce turnover are concerned and are fast closing the gap in English language skills.

“India’s popularity as an outsourcing destination has led to a rise in labour costs and attrition rates,” Ms. Khvatova told The Hindu. “Today we can offer offshore products at a lower price than Indian companies. The employee turnover in Luxoft is 6 per cent, compared to 30 per cent in India and 23 per cent in China. This gives us an advantage in outsourcing.”

President of Intel Russia Steve Chase agrees that Russians are the best in tackling complex problems. “The policy we have at Intel is simple,” he said in an interview. “If we can, we commit difficult problems to engineers in the U.S. If the task is very labour-intensive, we assign it to Indian specialists. If the problem cannot be solved, we offer it to Russians.”

Western high-tech and software companies are increasingly picking Russian IT providers for strategic partnerships. Intel’s Mr. Chase says his Russian workers have qualities that are hard to find elsewhere.

Different approach

 

 

“A typical software programmer in Russia is not a programmer by education,” he said. “He is more of a scientist — he is a chemist, or a physicist, or a mathematician. They approach problems differently, and we love that, because they are creative.”

Deutsche Bank’s Daniel Marovitz explains the difference between Indian and Russian programmers:

“In India, people want to say ‘yes’ to please and to follow instructions. That can create problems sometimes. In Russia, people aren’t afraid to tell you that you have a silly idea that makes no sense whatsoever. But that’s what you need.”

The former Russian Economic Development Minister, German Gref, is convinced that Russia will overtake India in IT in less than 10 years. “Russian programmers will create absolutely new products that will have no analogues anywhere,” he said.

A study by the global research firm IDC last year revealed that many U.S. and West European corporations even today prefer Russian IT providers to Indian ones. Their choice is influenced by such advantages of Russian firms as the ability to implement complex projects, creativity and problem-solving oriented thinking.

These translate into higher “uptime,” with projects moving faster, and the cost per line of working software declining.

While drawing inspiration from the Indian IT boom, Russian IT firms are not trying to replicate the Indian experience.

“It is useless to compete in market volumes, since Russia is far behind India and China in population terms,” says Data Art director-general Mikhail Zavileisky. “So, Russia should try to boost the income from clients by way of producing complex and expensive products.”

Experts say there is plenty of scope, not only for competition but also for cooperation between Indian and Russian IT companies.

Valentin Makarov, president of Russoft, the Russian equivalent of Nasscom, thinks cooperation between Indian and Russian IT companies could generate a strong synergy effect.

“Russian and Indian companies could be mutually complementary. Russians are strong in high-end solutions, while Indian firms at good at supplying mid-range software that does not require specialised engineering skills,” Mr. Makarov told The Hindu.

“Russia geographically, culturally and historically is close to Europe, and Indian IT companies may find it easier to penetrate the European market in a tie-up with Russian partners. A further reason for cooperation is that both Russia and India are growing IT markets, and Russian products gradually find their way to the Indian market, while Indian banking products are marketed in Russia.”

The current year may offer more opportunities for cooperation. According to an annual forecast for the IT outsourcing industry compiled by Luxoft, a tendency seen in 2007 for vendors to set up shop in other countries in order to tap into talent resources in an increasingly tightened market will gather momentum in 2008.

It is high time Indian IT companies took a closer look at the Russian market.

 Migrants, now an election issue in U.S.

 

Ewen MacAskill & Dan Glaister

 

 

 

 

 

---

Opposition to “illegals” could prove crucial in Republican primary in South Carolina

---

 

 

 

— Photo: AP

Facing flak: Republican presidential hopeful John McCain is facing criticism for backing bipartisan reform that would have offered immigrants a route to legality.

 

Ignacio, a Mexican teenager standing outside a rundown trailer home not far from the South Carolina state capital of Columbia, is lonely and a little scared. He misses his family in Jalisco, and twice in recent months people have come through his trailer park waving guns and shooting.

The 19-year-old, who preferred not to provide his surname, walked over the border in 2005 in search of a livelihood. He was caught and deported but a day later he tried again and was successful.

He now works in the construction industry, earning $400 for a six-day week, and shares the small trailer with four other single Mexicans — one of hundreds of such homes lining the bleak Old Peculiar Road, about 15 miles from Columbia.

“It is sad because we have no family. We work from 7 a.m. until the sun goes down. We only see each other when we are getting ready for bed,” he said.

Ignacio and his fellow illegal immigrants, numbering between 12 and 20 million, have become the hot issue of the 2008 presidential campaign. The influx of the Latino population into the U.S. in the past decade, the biggest wave of immigration since the 19th century, has aroused emotions that range from outright racism to the righteous anger of liberal activists who see in their plight a cause similar to the 1960s civil rights movement.

The controversy could determine the outcome of the Republican primary in South Carolina on Saturday. It will also have an impact on the contests that follow and eventually in November’s presidential election.

Ignacio is aware of the calls by Republican candidates that illegal immigrants should be arrested and sent home, but sees a contradiction in U.S. attitudes. “Yes, I am here illegally,” he said. “But we work the hardest. We are doing the jobs Americans will not do. We are building their homes, washing their dishes. We do all their work and they do not like us.”

While much of the resentment comes from a white community in a state with a reputation for racism, it comes too from the black community, amid accusations that the Latino workers are taking their jobs. Ignacio said the trailer park has twice been shot up in recent months by African-Americans.

While states near the Mexican border have long been accustomed to “illegals” — or undocumented workers, as sympathisers prefer to call them — what is new is their arrival in large numbers in states that had previously seen little immigration. South Carolina has one of the fastest-growing Latino populations in the country. The number of illegal immigrants is estimated at between 1,50,000 and 4,00,000 in a state with a population of 4.3 million.

The impact is felt strongest in small rural communities whose families have often lived in the same place since the 18th century. They now suddenly find shops and restaurants with names such as Guadalajara and where the staff speak only Spanish, and see large numbers of illegal immigrants in local schools or queues for the clinic.

The state legislature has about 40 bills pending proposing punitive actions to force such immigrants to move to another state or out of the U.S. A committee this week discussed a bill that would make it a criminal act to help illegal immigrants, with a penalty of five or more years in jail. Among those speaking in favour was Roan Garcia-Quintana, a U.S. citizen originally from Cuba who is director of the Americans Have Had Enough Coalition. “We are being overrun,” he said. “You see them everywhere.”

He criticised the Republican candidate John McCain for backing bipartisan reform that would have offered immigrants such as Ignacio a route to legality.

Mr. McCain is the most liberal of the Republicans on immigration — and that will cost him votes. Other candidates have adopted increasingly anti-illegal immigrant rhetoric, particularly Mike Huckabee, in spite of being relatively benign on the issue while governor of Arkansas.

The issue is also important in Nevada, which holds its caucuses on Saturday, but for a different reason.

Unlike the migrant Latino populations in the east and middle of the country who have no votes, Latinos in the western states are more established, with citizenship and votes.The Democratic candidates, unlike the Republicans, oppose deporting illegal immigrants.

 Migrants, now an election issue in U.S.

 

Ewen MacAskill & Dan Glaister

 

 

 

 

 

---

Opposition to “illegals” could prove crucial in Republican primary in South Carolina

---

 

 

 

— Photo: AP

Facing flak: Republican presidential hopeful John McCain is facing criticism for backing bipartisan reform that would have offered immigrants a route to legality.

 

Ignacio, a Mexican teenager standing outside a rundown trailer home not far from the South Carolina state capital of Columbia, is lonely and a little scared. He misses his family in Jalisco, and twice in recent months people have come through his trailer park waving guns and shooting.

The 19-year-old, who preferred not to provide his surname, walked over the border in 2005 in search of a livelihood. He was caught and deported but a day later he tried again and was successful.

He now works in the construction industry, earning $400 for a six-day week, and shares the small trailer with four other single Mexicans — one of hundreds of such homes lining the bleak Old Peculiar Road, about 15 miles from Columbia.

“It is sad because we have no family. We work from 7 a.m. until the sun goes down. We only see each other when we are getting ready for bed,” he said.

Ignacio and his fellow illegal immigrants, numbering between 12 and 20 million, have become the hot issue of the 2008 presidential campaign. The influx of the Latino population into the U.S. in the past decade, the biggest wave of immigration since the 19th century, has aroused emotions that range from outright racism to the righteous anger of liberal activists who see in their plight a cause similar to the 1960s civil rights movement.

The controversy could determine the outcome of the Republican primary in South Carolina on Saturday. It will also have an impact on the contests that follow and eventually in November’s presidential election.

Ignacio is aware of the calls by Republican candidates that illegal immigrants should be arrested and sent home, but sees a contradiction in U.S. attitudes. “Yes, I am here illegally,” he said. “But we work the hardest. We are doing the jobs Americans will not do. We are building their homes, washing their dishes. We do all their work and they do not like us.”

While much of the resentment comes from a white community in a state with a reputation for racism, it comes too from the black community, amid accusations that the Latino workers are taking their jobs. Ignacio said the trailer park has twice been shot up in recent months by African-Americans.

While states near the Mexican border have long been accustomed to “illegals” — or undocumented workers, as sympathisers prefer to call them — what is new is their arrival in large numbers in states that had previously seen little immigration. South Carolina has one of the fastest-growing Latino populations in the country. The number of illegal immigrants is estimated at between 1,50,000 and 4,00,000 in a state with a population of 4.3 million.

The impact is felt strongest in small rural communities whose families have often lived in the same place since the 18th century. They now suddenly find shops and restaurants with names such as Guadalajara and where the staff speak only Spanish, and see large numbers of illegal immigrants in local schools or queues for the clinic.

The state legislature has about 40 bills pending proposing punitive actions to force such immigrants to move to another state or out of the U.S. A committee this week discussed a bill that would make it a criminal act to help illegal immigrants, with a penalty of five or more years in jail. Among those speaking in favour was Roan Garcia-Quintana, a U.S. citizen originally from Cuba who is director of the Americans Have Had Enough Coalition. “We are being overrun,” he said. “You see them everywhere.”

He criticised the Republican candidate John McCain for backing bipartisan reform that would have offered immigrants such as Ignacio a route to legality.

Mr. McCain is the most liberal of the Republicans on immigration — and that will cost him votes. Other candidates have adopted increasingly anti-illegal immigrant rhetoric, particularly Mike Huckabee, in spite of being relatively benign on the issue while governor of Arkansas.

The issue is also important in Nevada, which holds its caucuses on Saturday, but for a different reason.

Unlike the migrant Latino populations in the east and middle of the country who have no votes, Latinos in the western states are more established, with citizenship and votes.The Democratic candidates, unlike the Republicans, oppose deporting illegal immigrants.

 Impact of death penalty that’s not carried out

 

Alexander Chancellor

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kenny Richey, the 43-year-old Scotsman who returned home 10 days ago after 21 years on death row in the U.S., says he has never been more miserable than since he was let out. In a BBC interview, he reveals that he has considered suicide more often in the past week than during all his time in an American jail. He says that in Scotland he feels “left behind” by a world that has “moved on,” and that he is finding it hard to fit in. “So much has changed — even the scenery,” he says. “This is a society that has grown up without me.”

Richey has always protested his innocence of causing the death of a two-year-old girl, killed in an alleged arson attack in Ohio on the house of his former girlfriend and her lover in 1986. I believe in his innocence, since he even refused a plea bargain that would have changed his conviction from murder to manslaughter and reduced his sentence from death to 11 years. As a result, he once came within an hour of being executed.

Yet even this horror pales before what he has endured since becoming a free man again. This may seem extraordinary, but it is a well-documented fact that his experience is far from unique. In the great controversy that continues to rage in America about the death penalty — that great blot on the country’s reputation for humanity and human rights — the plight of those on death row who are eventually released is almost totally overlooked.

They may have been spared the terrible finality of lethal injection or the electric chair, but nevertheless they have had to spend years in prison expecting it, dreading it and preparing for it. Then, all of a sudden, when doubt as to their guilt is grudgingly recognised by the authorities, they are suddenly set free. But to what? Not to a normal life, but to broken marriages, unemployment and social ostracism.

 

It has repeatedly been shown that the death penalty doesn’t have to be carried out to rob people of their lives. Richey, it seems, is one such victim. Asked if he feels bitter, he replies: “They took 21-and-a-half years of my life for something I didn’t do. Of course I’m bitter. Who wouldn’t be?” It is terribly sad.

 Caste discrimination

 

The article “Discrimination for dummies: V. 2008” (Jan. 18) has rightly analysed the issues that surround the caste system in India. Caste is not restricted to reservation in education and employment; it penetrates deep into the lives of the people. The apathy of the media towards the issues affecting the lower caste people is disturbing. At the same time, it must be said that reservation has done little good. A very small number of people benefit from it while a majority of backward Indians have been left out. The most significant effect of reservation has been to widen the gap within different sections of people.

Vaibhav Sharma,

Chennai

 

* * *

 

I fully agree with the author’s views on the discriminatory attitude of national and international media towards Dalits. Dalit perspectives and issues never get decent space and coverage in the mainstream media. These perspectives are stereotyped as ideological constructs of lesser merit. The problems and concerns of Dalits are trivialised and ridiculed. Because of their dehumanised past, they are devalued, their capacity to think is questioned. Thus they become a static community, prisoners of a stereotype. To counter this, we need socially committed media intellectuals and activists who can present the Dalit perspective in a right manner.

Harish S. Wankhede,

New Delhi

 

* * *

 

What struck me was the media apathy towards Dalit issues — the several instances of Dalit victimisation which they have downplayed while providing extensive coverage to stories that reflect the concerns of the upper castes. Dalits seem to be fighting a losing battle as the public opinion formed by such partial and biased media coverage is bound to be prejudiced against them.

P. Sudeep Nettur,

Bangalore

 

* * *

 

The caste system, which has prevailed in India for centuries, has become a burden on those with a conscience and rational mind. Those who call themselves Hindus but practise apartheid in the name of caste ought to do their homework first. The fact that untouchability is still practised in some Hindu temples makes a mockery of the ever-evolving nature of Hinduism.

Maitree Mishra,

Indore

 

* * *

 

That discrimination against Dalits continues even after six decades of independence is unfortunate. The atrocities the article refers to are extremely shocking and are enough to shame all Indians.

But will reservation in education and jobs alleviate their suffering? Are governments really concerned about Dalits or are they using them as vote bank? It is no doubt necessary to continue with the reservation policy to uplift those who have suffered for centuries. But it is more important to elevate them to a level where they can send their children to schools. Reservation should be regulated to benefit those who really deserve it.

Ambika Gupta,

New Delhi

 

* * *

 

Casteism is still practised in our country and there still exists a mental divide between the upper and lower castes. The number of arranged marriages that takes place testifies to the caste divide. But what is the solution to the problem? Is caste-based reservation, with the creamy layer included and the list of OBCs increasing, the only solution?

Reservation is necessary but only for the downtrodden, irrespective of caste. Caste-based reservation has become such a big political issue that nobody dares to think differently. I think it is time to do away with it and look for bridging the divide instead of deepening it.

Shikhar Sharma,

Hyderabad

 

* * *

 

The opposition to reservation in jobs and education is triggered by the fear that a large chunk of the benefit will be utilised by the creamy layer. It makes sense to provide support in the form of reservation to those who need it.

But when Dalits who continue to suffer are unable to derive its benefits, the entire purpose of reservation stands defeated. The media, instead of having a positive debate on how to make reservation more meaningful, are caught in the popular sentiments of the middle and upper-middle class groups.

Rahul Sharma,

New Delhi

 

* * *

 

Can we deny that reverse discrimination against Brahmins, as pointed out by the Wall Street Journal article, exists? It is not Brahmins who were responsible for the Khairlanji incident. It is not Brahmins who gouged out the eyes of a young Dalit for marrying a girl from another caste.

It is not Brahmins who are responsible for a huge percentage of Dalits living below the poverty line. Why, then, should they be at the receiving end of the quota system?

K. Hari Krishnan,

Tuticorin

 

* * *

 

The injustices meted out to Dalits are cruel and unconscionable. The state’s response should be to punish those perpetrating them while providing generous development assistance to the victimised communities. Depriving a whole class of ‘upper’ caste people of opportunities is not fair. Two wrongs do not make a right. It is not fair to blame the present generation for centuries-old social ills.

Mukundagiri Sadagopan,

Wheaton, Illinois

 

* * *

 

The article blames the Indian elite as a whole for its attitude towards Dalits and the stand on reverse discrimination. It does not spare even the media for its ‘sin’ of covering the AIIMS agitation. It conveniently fails to mention that it is the media that have been in the forefront of bringing to light instances of atrocities against Dalits. The elite and all sections of the media need not have identical views on all social issues. If, despite the existence of reservation for so many decades, there is not even a slow-paced improvement in the plight of the under-privileged, there is no point in defending it or denying the existence of reverse discrimination.

Navuluri Venkateswara Rao,

 Ladakh’s vanishing rivers of ice

 

Praveen Swami

 

 

 

 

 

---

Glacial retreat in Jammu and Kashmir could plunge South Asia into crisis.

---

 

 

“In memory,” reads the small stone plaque by the side of the world’s highest road “of 18 men of the 201 Engineer Regiment who lost their lives fording the Khardung La.” Back in 1976, when soldiers began to blast their way through the 18,200-foot La, or pass, the road beyond the plaque opened on to a wall of ice. Trucks and cars moving northwest from Leh to villages in the Nobra Valley had to traverse a bridge across the Khardung glacier. Through much of the winter, maintenance crews had to battle the snow to keep the road open for military convoys making their way to the ring of frontier outposts that support Indian troops on the Siachen glacier.

For the past five years, though, Ladakh has seen unusually mild winters and low snowfall. The Khardung glacier has thinned to the point of dispensing with the bridge that traversed it. “Over the years, I’ve watched this river of ice disappear. It is bizarre,” says Nobra’s representative in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly, Pinto Norbu. In a region which sees less than 50 millimetres of rain every year, glacial melt is the principal source of water — and Ladakh residents fear that they will count among the victims of global warming. If the fears prove well founded, the consequences will be various for much of Pakistan and India, both depending on river systems fed by Ladakh’s glaciers for much of their water needs.

The Ladakh residents’ fears are based on what they have seen. Mountaineering guides, for example, say glaciers which once needed sophisticated ice craft to traverse can now be negotiated by trekkers. The residents note that the region has also seen freak weather in recent years, including flash foods which swept through Leh and the Nobra Valley last summer.

Science appears to bear out their concerns. Measurements of one glacier in the Karakoram Range, conducted by paleo-climatologist Bahadur Kotlia using a Global Positioning System, showed it had retreated between 15 and 20 metres a year between 2001 and 2003. “This rate is chaos; this should not be happening,” he said in a recent interview. Mr. Kotlia’s findings have been borne out by a study of 466 glaciers in the Chenab, Baspa and Parbati river basins, published by the Indian Space Research Organisation’s Anil Kulkarni and six other scientists in January 2007. Writing in the journal Current Science, Mr. Kulkarni and his co-authors reported an “overall reduction from 2077 square kilometres in 1962 to 1682 square kilometres at present, an overall deglaciation of 21%.”

Of the consequences of these developments, Mr. Kulkarni and his colleagues left little doubt: “In the future, if additional global warming takes place, the processes of glacial fragmentation and retreat will increase which will have a profound effect on availability of water resources in the Himalayan region.”

Glacial retreat could provoke a meltdown of the India-Pakistan peace process. In a report for the international science organisation Pugwash, environmental scientist Erin Blankenship has pointed out that retreating glaciers mean less water in the rivers both countries depend on — and this at a time when their needs are growing. Back in 1960, India and Pakistan hammered out the Indus Waters Treaty, or IWT, to regulate their use of the rivers which head west from Jammu and Kashmir. Despite three wars since, the agreement has held. Glacial retreat, though, could erode this keystone of India-Pakistan peace.

Dr. Blankenship has recorded that Pakistan, dependent on the Indus for an estimated 90 per cent of its irrigation needs, saw per capita water availability decline from 5,600 cubic metres in 1947 to just 1,200 cubic metres in 2005. Groundwater reserves are reported to have fallen to an alarming level in over half of Pakistan’s 45 canal commands. Worse, silt deposits in Pakistan’s major Indus dams means they can store less water for the months when it is most needed. By 2010, experts estimate, Pakistan may lose over half of its water storage capacity.

India, too, has been moving inexorably towards a water crisis. In 1950, per capita availability stood at over 5,000 cubic metres; in 2005, it was 1,800 cubic metres. Some States have reported per-capita water availability below 1,000 cubic metres, the crisis threshold used by the World Bank. Farmers in States critical to agriculture such as Punjab and Haryana have responded to the shortage by overusing groundwater, leading to precipitate falls in the water table. In time, pressures on Indian policy-makers to use more water than what the IWT allows could well grow. Punjab’s 1994 decision to abrogate water agreements with other States, though symbolic, involved a repudiation of the IWT — and it also provides a glimpse of the future. While water shortages alone put a serious strain on the IWT, Dr. Blankenship argues, “to add the projected human population growth is to raise the stakes to an entirely different level.” India’s population in 2025 is projected to rise to 1.3 billion, thrice that of the time when the IWT was signed. Pakistan by then is expected to have 270 million residents, more than six times its original population.

Within Jammu and Kashmir, politicians cutting across party lines have already begun making precisely such demands. The IWT permits the construction of hydro-electric dams storing 3.6 million acre-feet on the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers, and irrigation of only 1,21,000 hectares of land. The IWT restrictions, Dr. Blankenship argues, “act as a chokehold on Kashmir’s capacity for progress.” Jammu and Kashmir is treaty-bound to use only a fraction of its 15,000 MW hydro-electricity potential, and has been able to irrigate only 10 per cent of its farmland, as opposed to 80 per cent in Pakistan.

Solutions do exist — and have been pushed with increasing urgency by experts. Writing in The Tribune in 2005, B.G. Verghese called for a revised ‘Indus-II’ treaty, built on “joint investment, construction, management and control” of the three western rivers. He argued that Indus-II “should be fed into the current peace process as a means both of defusing current political strains over Indus-I and insuring against climate change.”

The former Union Water Resources Secretary, Ramaswamy Iyer, has also called for a reworking of the IWT. In a recent article in the Economic and Political Weekly, he succinctly argued that the IWT was “a negative, partitioning treaty, a coda to the portioning of the land.” While politicians debate whether or not to explore new possibilities, the stark fact is that time is running out. With the glaciers in retreat, there may not be just enough water to go around.

For some in Pakistan, that fear has been enough to justify war. In 1947, when Major-General Akbar Khan ordered the first Pakistani irregulars into Jammu and Kashmir — sparking off a conflict without apparent end — water occupied a central place in his strategic vision. Pakistan, General Khan wrote in his memoirs, Raiders in Kashmir, simply could not afford India having control of its irrigation headworks at Mangala, and of the sources of its most important river system, the Indus. Last year, Lashkar-e-Taiba leaders pointed to the same concerns to justify calls for a renewed jihad against India.

Speaking in 1999, UNESCO Director-General Klaus Toepfer warned that as water “becomes increasingly rare, it becomes coveted; capable of unleashing conflicts. More than over land or oil, it is over water that the most bitter conflicts of the near future may be fought.”

Panic, though, isn’t a response Leh District Magistrate Mandeep Bhandari believes will be useful. Leh’s groundwater levels, he points out, are excellent: handpumps installed to meet villagers’ needs hit aquifers at six metres or less, and farmers report an abundant flow of water from glacier-fed mountain streams. “It is not as if there is a crisis staring us in the face,” Mr. Bhandari says, “but we need to start thinking hard whether we’re using water in ways that are appropriate to our environment.”

Part of the problem is a consequence of well-meaning efforts to improve the economy. With road links to Himachal Pradesh and the rest of Jammu and Kashmir severed for several months a year, farmers in Ladakh have been encouraged to cultivate vegetables. While the high-altitude desert now meets a significant part of its vegetable needs locally, cultivation on its dry soil demands constant irrigation. Trees planted to meet the rural need for firewood, too, have created new demands for water. “People are pumping too much water,” says Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council chief executive Tsering Dorjay. This, “in practice, means using our glacial reserves without care for the future.”

Tourism, too, has created new problems. While most rural Ladakh and old town Leh residents make do with buckets filled from handpumps, the growing influx of tourists has spurred the creation of modern hotels which draw copious quantities of water to feed showers and baths. As tourism expands in the region, so too will hotels — and other water-intensive facilities for the upmarket tourists Ladakh hopes to draw, like swimming pools and golf courses.

Ladakh, then, faces an anxious future. Its fate will be shared by all of South Asia’s peoples

 The global slowdown

 

According to the World Bank report, Global Economic Prospects 2008, resilience of the developing economies is cushioning the current slowdown in the United States. The world economy is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent, marginally lower than the 3.6 per cent recorded last year. The recent moderation in growth at the global level — during 2006 it was 3.9 per cent — is largely attributed to the weaker growth registered by the high income countries. While the developing countries will continue to provide the stimulus to global growth, their growth is projected at a lower rate of 7.1 per cent. High income countries will grow by a modest 2.2 per cent. Neither the analysis nor the prognosis is new but they are extremely relevant for decision making across the globe. The spectre of a recession looms large in the U.S., with the dollar on a long decline and the housing and credit market crises accentuating the volatility in global financial markets. If the U.S. economy worsens, the global economy may not have the soft-landing that policy makers are hoping for. Developing countries would get lesser capital inflows. Their export revenues would fall and the value of the dollar investments depreciate sharply. In fact, the resilience of the developing economies would be severely tested in the event of a much sharper downturn in the American economy. Coincidentally, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has come out with a dire warning that the outlook for 2008 has worsened. Monetary measures by themselves may not be enough to prevent a slide into recession.

Clearly, the global economic linkages are going to be a challenge to developing countries in many unexpected ways. The recent increase in global food prices, which is attributable in part to the diversion of grain for biofuels, is hurting the urban poor in the developing countries. On a positive note, the GEP 2008 records that better macroeconomic management and technological progress have helped in increasing total productivity and real income growth in developing countries over the past 15 years, and that trend may contribute to reduction in poverty level over the next decade. Technology has been used to lower costs, improve quality and reach new markets. Besides, the use of relatively simple skills can fetch far-reaching development benefits. The technology gap between the rich and the poor countries has narrowed but it is still wide. Globalisation has been a key driver of technological progress. The World Bank report is a balanced assessment of the global economy and the prospects for this year, which in the context of the problems in the U.S., has begun on a highly uncertain note.

Telangana issue to the fore

 

The Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) has raised the separate Statehood issue once again, setting a deadline for the Congress and the United Progressive Alliance government it heads at the Centre to come out with a firm commitment. The TRS has set many deadlines and issued several ultimatums in the past. Obviously with an eye on the elections to the Assembly and Parliament, which are due in 2009, the party appears set to push the statehood issue to the centre stage. The TRS fought the 2004 general elections as an ally of the Congress and joined the UPA government. But its president K. Chandrasekhar Rao quit the Cabinet since he could not have his way with the Centre on carving out a separate State for the Telangana region in Andhra Pradesh — something the Congress had agreed, during the 2004 elections, to consider. The Congress line, at least initially, was to refer the issue, along with other demands for new States in various parts of the country, to a second States Reorganisation Commission. Though there was talk recently of setting up such a Commission, there has been no formal announcement as yet. All that the Centre did, under pressure from the TRS, was to constitute a Cabinet sub-committee headed by External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee for going into the Telangana issue, and the committee has not yet given its report.

In the event of the Centre not responding positively to the statehood demand by March 6, the TRS has threatened to get its Members of Parliament and the State legislature to resign en masse. For its part, the Congress has not taken a clear stand. It has done precious little by way of making out a strong case for Telangana before the Pranab Mukherjee committee, nor has it taken any initiative to get the State Assembly adopt a resolution supporting the cause. The State unit of the Congress appears to be divided on the question, with those hailing from Telangana strongly favouring statehood — lurking behind their support is the fear that the TRS might steal a march over the Congress in the elections — and the rest insisting that Andhra Pradesh should not be partitioned. Once the Telangana demand is conceded, the clamour for separate Rayalaseema is bound to arise before long. In fact, the whole issue has to be approached holistically, not from the standpoint of narrow electoral gains or losses. It may be worthwhile to pursue the idea of constituting the second SRC. The new Commission could be asked to evolve general principles on statehood applicable to distinct and specific regions within a State where such demands have been raised

 Discrimination for dummies: V. 2008

 

P. Sainath

 

 

 

 

 

---

Increasingly, job quotas are cited as ‘discrimination’ — in reverse. But the word discrimination in terms of caste means something very different that the media mostly do not, or choose not to, understand.

---

 

 

A signal achievement of the Indian elite in recent years has been to take caste, give it a fresh coat of paint, and repackage it as a struggle for equality. The agitations in the All-India Institute of Medical Sciences and other such institutions were fine examples of this. Casteism is no longer in defensive denial the way it once was. (“Oh, caste? That was 50 years ago, now it barely exists.”) Today, it asserts that caste is killing the nation — but its victims are the upper castes. And the villains are the lower orders who crowd them out of the seats and jobs long held by those with merit in their genes.

This allows for a happy situation. You can practise casteism of a visceral kind — and feel noble about it. You are, after all, standing up for equal rights, calling for a caste-free society. Truth and justice are on your side. More importantly, so are the media. Remember how the AIIMS agitation was covered?

The idea of “reverse discrimination” (read: the upper castes are suffering) is catching on. In a curious report on India, The Wall Street Journal, for instance, buys into this big time. It profiles one such upper caste victim of “reverse discrimination” with sympathy. (“Reversal of Fortunes Isolates India’s Brahmins,” Dec. 29, 2007.) “In today’s India,” it says, “high caste privileges are dwindling.” The father of the story’s protagonist is “more liberal” than his grandfather. After all, “he doesn’t expect lower-caste neighbours to take off their sandals in his presence.” Gee, that’s nice. They can keep their Guccis on.

A lot of this hinges, of course, on what we like to perceive as privilege and what we choose to see as discrimination. Like many others, the WSJ report reduces both to just one thing: quotas in education and jobs. No other form of it exists in this view. But it does in the real world. Dalit students are routinely humiliated and harassed at school. Many drop out because of this. They are seated separately in the classroom and at mid-day meals in countless schools across the country. This does not happen to those of “dwindling privileges.”

Students from the upper castes do not get slapped by the teacher for drinking water from the common pitcher. Nor is there much chance of acid being thrown on their faces in the village if they do well in studies. Nor are they segregated in hostels and in the dining rooms of the colleges they go to. Discrimination dogs Dalit students at every turn, every level. As it does Dalits at workplace.

Yet, as Subodh Varma observes (The Times of India, December 12, 2006), their achievements in the face of such odds are impressive. Between 1961 and 2001, when literacy in the population as a whole doubled, it quadrupled among Dalits. Sure, that must be seen in the context of their starting from a very low base. But it happened in the face of everyday adversity for millions. Yet, the impact of this feat in terms of their prosperity is very limited.

The WSJ story says “close to half of Brahmin households earn less than $100 (or Rs. 4,000) a month.” Fair enough. (The table the story runs itself shows that with Dalits that is over 90 per cent of households.) But the journalist seems unaware, for example, of the report of the National Commission for Enterprises in the Unorganised Sector. Which says that 836 million Indians live on less than Rs.20, or 50 cents, a day. That is, about $15 a month. As many as 88 per cent of Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (and many from the Other Backward Classes and Muslims) fall into that group. Of course, there are poor Brahmins and other upper caste people who suffer real poverty. But twisting that to argue “reverse discrimination,” as this WSJ story does, won’t wash. More so when the story admits that, on average, “[Brahmins] are better educated and better paid than the rest of Indian people.”

Oddly enough, just two days before this piece, the WSJ ran a very good summary of the Khairlanji atrocity a year after it occurred. That story, from a different reporter, rightly suggests that the economic betterment and success of the Bhotmange family had stoked the jealousy of dominant caste neighbours in that Vidharbha village. But it ascribes that success to India’s “prolonged economic boom which has improved the lot of millions of the nation’s poorest, including Dalits.” Which raises the question: were other, dominant caste groups not gaining from the “boom?” How come? Were Dalits the only “gainers?”

As Varma points out, 36 per cent of rural and 38 per cent of urban Dalits are below the poverty line. That’s against 23 per cent of rural and 27 per cent of urban India as a whole. (Official poverty stats are a fraud, but that’s another story.) More than a quarter of Dalits, mostly landless, get work for less than six months a year. If half their households earned even $50 a month, that would be a revolution.

Let us face it, though. Most of the Indian media share the WSJ’s “reverse discrimination” views. Take the recent Brahmin super-convention in Pune. Within this explicitly caste-based meeting were further surname-based conclaves that seated people by clan or sub-group. You don’t get more caste-focussed than that. None of this, though, was seen as odd by the media. Almost at the same time, there was another high-profile meeting on within the Marathas. That is, the dominant community of Maharashtra. The meeting flatly demanded caste-based quotas for themselves. Again, not seen as unusual.

But Dalit meetings are always measured in caste, even racist, terms. This, although Dalits are not a caste but include people from hundreds of social groups that have suffered untouchability. The annual gathering in memory of Dr. B.R. Ambedkar on December 6 in Mumbai has been written of with fear. The damage and risks the city has to stoically bear when the noisy mass gathers. The disruption of traffic. The threat to law and order. How a possible exodus looms of the gentle elite of Shivaji Park. (In fear of the hordes about to disturb their polite terrain.) And of course, the sanitation problem (never left unstated for it serves to reinforce the worst of caste prejudice and allows “us” to view “them” as unclean).

But back to the real world. How many upper caste men have had their eyes gouged out for marrying outside their caste? Ask young Chandrakant in Sategaon village of Nanded in Maharashtra why he thinks it happened to him last week. How many higher caste bastis have been torched and razed in land or other disputes? How many upper caste folk lose a limb or even their lives for daring to enter a temple?

How many Brahmins or Thakurs get beaten up, even burnt alive, for drawing water from the village well? How many from those whose “privileges are dwindling” have to walk four kilometres to fetch water? How many upper caste groups are forced to live on the outskirts of the village, locked into an eternal form of indigenous apartheid? Now that’s discrimination. But it is a kind that the WSJ reporter does not see, can never fathom.

In 2006, National Crime Records Bureau data tell us, atrocities against Dalits increased across a range of offences. Cases under the Protection of Civil Rights Act shot up by almost 40 per cent. Dalits were also hit by more murders, rapes and kidnapping than in 2005. Arson, robbery and dacoity directed against them — those went up too.

It’s good that the molestation or rape of foreign tourists (particularly in Rajasthan) is causing concern and sparking action. Not so good that Dalit and tribal women suffer the same and much worse on a colossal scale without getting a fraction of the importance the tourists do. The same Rajasthan saw an infamous rape case tossed out because in the judge’s view, an upper caste man was most unlikely to have raped a lower caste woman.

In the Kumher massacre which claimed 17 Dalit lives in that State, charges could not be framed for seven years. In a case involving a foreign tourist, a court handed down a guilty verdict in 14 days. For Dalits, 14 years would be lucky. Take contemporary Maharashtra, home to India’s richest. The attention given to the Mumbai molestation case — where 14 arrested men remained in jail for five days after being granted bail — stands out in sharp contrast to what has happened in Latur or Nanded. In the Latur rape case, the victim was a poor Muslim, in Nanded the young man who was ghoulishly blinded, a Dalit. The Latur case was close to being covered up but for the determination of the victim’s community.

The discrimination that pervades Dalit lives follows them after death too. They are denied the use of village graveyards. Dalits burying their dead in any place the upper castes object to could find the bodies of their loved ones torn out of the ground. Every year, more and more instances of all these and other atrocities enter official records. This never happens to the upper castes of “dwindling privileges.” The theorists of “reverse discrimination” are really upholders of perverse practice.

 The idea of India is under assault statecraft

 

Harish Khare

 

 

 

 

 

---

A dangerous imbalance has crept in between the Centre’s political capacity to govern and its constitutional responsibility to ensure the welfare and progress of all sections.

---

 

 

In less than two weeks we shall be performing in New Delhi and the various State capitals the all familiar Republic Day ceremonies and rituals, presumably reaffirming our collective national persona. In the context of the institutional disarray in our immediate neighbourhood, we may permit ourselves to feel satisfied, even superior, about the durability of the Republic and the depth of the republican sentiment. Yet, we will find our joy somewhat soured if we take a real ha rd look at the balance between the shrinking national sentiment and the expanding regional assertiveness. The signs of an imbalance are all too visible.

Narendra Modi seems to have won a famous victory, touting among other slogans and sentiments something called “Gujarat asmita.” The bottom line of that victory is the success he has had in rancorously pitting “Gujarati pride” against the rest of India. Rather than regret that a dichotomy can be invented between Gujarati pride and the pan-Indian sentiments, that victory has been particularly savoured by those who have reason to disapprove of the Congress. That is the Congress’ problem and challenge. But the trouble is that Mr. Modi belongs to a party that once spoke the language of “akhand bharat” and which still takes pride in positioning itself as the only viable and robust custodian of Indian national interests. Yet the Bharatiya Janata Party’s entire national leadership found it expedient to indulge Mr. Modi in his parochial assertiveness. A separatist incision into the notion of togetherness has been celebrated as a wholesome development.

Then, we have the spectacle of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati grousing unremittingly against the Centre. Sometimes she demands that the law be changed to provide her the super-elite SPG protection because she sees a massive threat to her life from enemies; sometimes she demands exemption and impunity from various authorities, including the taxman; sometimes she complains that the Centre is not allotting Rs.80,000 crore for Uttar Pradesh, as per her desire. Worse, those who man the Centre find it expedient to want to arrive at some kind of quid pro quo with her.

Then, there is the Chief Minister of Bihar. The other day, Nitish Kumar wrote to the Prime Minister, protesting against what he called “inadequate arrangements made for the Haj pilgrims in Saudi Arabia.” Since a large number of the pilgrims were from Bihar, he obviously felt he was entitled to protest. Maybe Mr. Kumar was trying to score a point over his regional rivals, who lay better claim to the allegiance of Muslim voters, but this solicitousness about Bihari Haj pilgrims fits the larger — and worrying — pattern of Chief Ministers willing to tap sentiments which tend to exclude larger loyalties and to weaken the obligation of each and every citizen of the republic to have a pan-Indian allegiance.

Such regional expressions are not new; from time to time, we have had the experience of regional outfits making special claims on a section of citizens but in due course all such expressions and resentments got harmonised with the “mainstream.” And as the polity moved into the coalition era, regional bosses found themselves in a position of having to sustain governing arrangements at the Centre. H.D. Deve Gowda became Prime Minister, and, later N. Chandrababu Naidu emerged the critical prop for the National Democratic Alliance. Whereas earlier it was the outsider railing against the insider, the new strain appears to be the incumbent insider carving out a different — and distinct — space against other insiders.

The reverse phenomenon

 

 

Curiously enough, there is also the reverse phenomenon. When Indian immigrants get roughed up in Malaysia, the Tamil political leaders demand of the Prime Minister that he should intervene — and intervene forcefully. When some Indian expatriates get caught in Kenya’s internal political turmoil, the Chief Minister of Gujarat promptly positions himself as the long-distance protector of the “Gujaratis” and demands that the Prime Minister should do “something.” On the one hand, there is this inclination to weaken, ignore, and dilute the Central ruling arrangement, Central institutions and constraints, and, on the other, the expectation remains high that the Centre should be able to protect and promote anyone who invokes an “Indian” connection, however removed. The balance between the Centre’s political capacity and its constitutional responsibilities is becoming precarious by the day.

Two related developments have aggravated this larger weakening of the pan-Indian sentiment that must ultimately sustain the Indian state. First, since Rajiv Gandhi we have not had a Prime Minister who truly commanded a pan-Indian image and respect. Name-recognition does accrue to anyone who becomes Prime Minister, but that does not necessarily convert itself into a confidence-generating, affection-creating, awe-inspiring national presence, commensurate with the pan-Indian authority that he seeks to command. V.P. Singh and S. Chandra Shekhar, both Uttar Pradesh-centric leaders, depended on regional bosses to purchase a bit of political acceptability in the country. Even Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s appeal remained confined mostly to the Hindi-speaking areas. Until we are able to discover a new all-India helmsman, the task of negotiating central authority would continue to remain difficult.

Short-sightedness

 

 

The second development that has contributed to the decline of the Centre is the short-sightedness of the “national” political elites. There is an irresistible temptation between the two principal national parties — the BJP and the Congress — to want to win the most immediate next electoral battle or, inversely, to see to it that the other party is denied victory, even if it means humouring and accommodating the most sectarian or separatist outfit. For instance, in the last elections in Andhra Pradesh, the Congress blithely aligned itself with the Telangana votaries, without thinking through the implications. Or, in Chhattisgarh, both the Congress and the BJP have varyingly teamed up with assorted naxalite groups to ensure victory in a few constituencies.

The two parties have ended up providing space, respectability, resources and moral arguments to regional outfits, complicating the recovery of their own national following and appeal across the nation.

In the last two decades, the decline of the Congress has been widely hailed, mostly because of the arrogance and ineptitude the leadership displayed during its heyday, especially in the 1980s. Historically, this decline would not have caused worry had any other all-India political formation taken its place and role. For a while it did look that perhaps a working alliance of regional outfits would be the ideal way of forging provincial resentments and local aspirations into a powerful national synergy; however, the three experiments of the United Front, the National Democratic Alliance and the current United Progressive Alliance do not induce any confidence in terms of producing a coherent governing culture.

We could arguably go on stumbling from one weak arrangement to another — except that we have also invented for ourselves aspirations of a great power. If that dream is to be realised, we need to be alert in three areas. First, it is obvious that we will need to regroup our resources as to how we deal with the challenge of global terror groups, who respect no national boundaries and certainly do not recognise States’ autonomy. The persistent opposition from the State governments to the idea of a “federal” force, first proposed by the NDA regime, is the most painful reminder of the indifference to the need to retrieve the capacity of the Central authority. Secondly, there is the emergence of powerful all-India corporate players, who are virtually corralling weak State governments into their greedy agendas. The ideologue will, of course, see this as an inevitable triumph of the market, but without a strong and vigilant Centre, the globalised political economy of pain and pleasure can easily end up producing massive chaos at home. Thirdly, there is the question of India’s reputation and efficacy as an international player, as has been so poignantly brought home in the course of the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal negotiations.

The weakening of the Central authority has a way of encouraging unhelpful external players to crowd in on New Delhi. The onus to arrest the decline of the Central authority is on all those who think they have a stake in India transforming itself into a global player abroad and a sensitive arrangement at home. Neither partisanship nor narrow ambitions would help produce the much-needed transformative leadership to resuscitate the idea of India.

 Religion and the politics of Hindraf

 

P.S. Suryanarayana

 

 

 

 

 

---

The Hindu Rights Action Force sees the archetypal Hindu temple in

Malaysia as the icon of the identity of ethnic Indians in all fields.

---

 

 

Does the Hindu Rights Action Force (Hindraf) define its ongoing “struggle” as the espousal of the religious “cause” of the ethnic Indian minority in Muslim-majority Malaysia? Alternatively, does religion really dominate the politics of Hindraf?

These questions have come to the fore following Malaysia’s affirmation that it wants to encourage the appointment of its own Indian-origin people as priests at Hindu temples in the country.

The future recruitment of Hindu priests from India will be considered case by case. However, no ban has been imposed on the traditional practice of Malaysian Indians seeking the services of such religious persons from abroad, especially India. Nonetheless, “stringent” assessments will be made, from now on, for renewing the work visas of those already officiating at temples in Malaysia. The number of such priests is over 5,000.

Malaysia’s transparent objectives are to prevent its Hindu temples from becoming a theatre of the Hindraf-style politics and to do so by not affecting relations with India. The reasoning can be traced to the centrality of the Hindu temple in the lives of a large number of Malaysian Indians. The delicacy of ties between India and Malaysia is another factor.

Hinduism is the dominant religion among the two-million Malaysian Indians, who account for about eight per cent of the country’s population. The majority ethnic group of Malays practises Islam.

Hindraf, according to Malaysian authorities, is an unregistered group, which, therefore, has not been formally banned, despite its penchant for religion-based politics and for organising “illegal” rallies. Malaysia remains wary of issue-based street demonstrations, especially anti-government rallies, which, in its opinion, can cause breach of peace.

In this situation, Hindraf has started using temples, more visibly in the past few weeks, for “protesting” against the “prolonged” detention of five of its leaders under Malaysia’s tough Internal Security Act (ISA). Prayers are often offered, complete with the devotees shaving their heads, as a form of political “protest.”

Temples are also being used by Hindraf as safe sanctuaries for delivering short speeches on the need to promote the constitutional rights of Malaysian Indians. And, according to Hindraf coordinator Thanenthiran, the temple priests are coming under “pressure” from the authorities to deny the group such access.

Importantly, the priests are Indian citizens, in most cases. So, the issue bristles with an accidental possibility of a collateral crisis involving India and Malaysia in the basic context of confrontation between Hindraf and the Malaysian government. From the standpoint of the activist group, though, this collateral aspect may well reinforce the utility of temples as sanctuaries for advocating the rights of Malaysian Indians and mobilising their support for anti-government protests.

From the Malaysian government’s perspective, it makes eminent sense, therefore, to adopt a policy of encouraging the local Indian-origin people to take to Hindu priesthood. Add to this Malaysia’s new move of allowing priests from India only on a case-by-case basis and being stringent about renewing the work visas of Indian-citizen priests.

And what emerges is a picture of the Malaysian government’s long-term strategy of avoiding a possible collateral crisis involving India and facing the challenge of neutralising Hindraf’s access to temples as a political theatre. In this scenario, the new policy of appointing Malaysian Indians as priests can be suitably regulated to deny Hindraf, or any other group like it, easy access to temples for political sanctuary. The reason is that efforts can be made to ensure that the Malaysian-Indian priests are government-friendly. And, if the number of Indian-citizen priests dwindles as a result, the chances of their getting caught in possible confrontations between Hindraf and the Malaysian government will diminish. This should be good for India-Malaysia ties. So runs Malaysia’s unstated but discernible reasoning.

According to the Hindraf leaders, their decade-long campaign, which has only now hit the headlines, can be traced to the need to “protect” the rights of Malaysian Indians. In prime focus is the demand for the reversal of their alleged “marginalisation” in many fields, ranging from education to employment.

An emotion-surcharged concern of the Hindraf leadership centres on the archetypal Hindu temple in Malaysia as an icon of the identity of the country’s ethnic Indian community in all fields, including politics. These leaders draw attention to the alleged “insensitivity” of the authorities in having allowed the demolition of temples in recent years.

The government’s general counter-argument, though, is that the demolition of any place of worship, not just Hindu temples, is based in law. A prime consideration is said to be the fact whether land was duly acquired for building the temples.

Significantly, a rallying cry for the Hindraf-organised protest march in Kuala Lumpur on November 25 last was the demolition of a temple a few weeks before Deepavali.

During the bygone British Raj, Hindu temples were built dotting the plantation estates, where indentured workers from South India were forced to work long hours and make a harsh living. Most among today’s Malaysian Indians are descendants of those workers, and the outward mobility of a number of them accounts for today’s larger presence of this ethnic community elsewhere in the country too. Yet, according to Hindraf, about 70 per cent of Malaysian Indians are still in the “poor underclass.”

This aspect of their “plight” is disputed by the Malaysian Indian Congress, a constituent of successive ruling coalitions at the federal level. Significantly, however, the MIC too is now busy drawing up temple protection plans for the government’s consideration.

In recent years, the issue of conversions to Islam has begun to trouble not only Malaysian Indians but also the broadly-affluent ethnic Chinese, who constitute the country’s largest minority. Yet, for the present, the politics of Hindraf centres mainly on temple protection and the “basic rights” of Malaysian Indians. Hindraf leader P. Waytha Moorthy, now camping in London, has called for a protest rally to coincide with Valentine’s Day in February. The stated plan is to present two roses of different colours to Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi — one symbolising the demand for the release of the detained Hindraf leaders and the other to convey the group’s peaceful intentions. It is said to be a plan to woo, not wound, the Malaysian state

 Containment is the key

 

The bird flu outbreak in two districts of West Bengal has come a month after India declared itself bird flu-free in New Delhi at the International Ministerial Conference on Avian and Pandemic Influenza and became, for the first time, a donor to fight the menace. The last outbreak was in 2006 at Navapur in Nandurbar district of Maharashtra when several thousand birds were killed by the virus. The latest episode, confirmed by the Bhopal-based laboratory to be an attack of the widely prevalent H5H1 strain, has killed nearly 35,000 birds over the past one week. The government has issued orders to cull all birds within a radius of five kilometres and to look out for possible human infections. With the outbreak seen mostly in backyard poultry, the success of the culling operations will largely depend on the timely compensation offered to owners. It is comforting that a door-to-door inspection of people with suspected symptoms of bird flu has already been undertaken. How well the authorities succeed in containing the spread and preventing any human infection would indicate the robustness of the government’s “full-fledged action plan to combat avian influenza pandemic when and if it strikes.” Only a timely containment would help prevent a bird flu pandemic, which was seen a few years ago. Unlike in 2006 when the outbreak was initially dismissed as some kind of a chicken malady, the cause of death this time has been confirmed unequivocally, thanks to greater preparedness. While containment is the immediate priority, the task of identifying the strain and comparing it with samples collected from earlier outbreaks to check for any mutation is equally important.

Though precise information on the route of virus transmission is not yet available, there is a strong possibility that the bird flu has come from Bangladesh. The H5N1 avian virus, first reported near Dhaka in March last year, has been spreading; it has affected 23 of the 64 districts in that country so far. Migratory birds have been found to be responsible for long distance transmission of the virus, and within a region it has been well documented that the movement of men and material carrying the virus is a sufficient cause for H5N1 to spread. In the latest case, the continuing trade in birds across the international border appears to have provided the transmission route. Immediate measures have to be taken to avoid such movement of birds, especially when avian flu is still prevalent in Bangladesh. This is important as Bangladesh, which has been unable to stop the spread of the disease for the last ten months, may well have let the virus become deeply entrenched among its bird population

 Partnership with States

 

Union Civil Aviation Minister Praful Patel will be doing the right thing in briefing Chief Ministers about infrastructure development and seeking the States’ partnership in the growth of the civil aviation sector. Though some of the State governments have been actively promoting the development or modernisation of airports in their regions, not all have shown the same level of involvement. The task of strengthening the aviation infrastructure goes beyond the mere construction, expansion or modernisation of airports. The greenfield airports in Hyderabad and Bangalore are all set for commissioning in March or April, but the passengers using them will realise that connectivity is still very much a problem. Though the airports have been under development for three years or more, a multi-modal transport system to link the city with the new airport, situated some 30 km away, is not yet ready in both cases. This goes also for the elevated or surface toll way intended to provide an easier access to the airport. These are seen as failures of the State governments and the inter-departmental coordination mechanisms that are supposed to sort out these problems.

Mr. Patel has noted that there are 80 operational airports in the country, with another 20 greenfield projects under development. In addition, there are at least 300 airstrips lying unused in different States. A question therefore arises as to how to revive the airstrips as part of the expansion of the aviation network and put them to use at least in a limited way. The Civil Aviation Ministry and the Airports Authority of India already have their hands full with projects for the development of airports in operation and the construction of new ones. It is only appropriate that the States undertake the task of preparing blueprints for the development of support infrastructure and for newer airports to match the growth of aviation industry. The States need to prioritise their tourism and aviation development projects and go for Public-Private Partnership to implement them, with support from the Centre. In parallel, they have to seriously address the related infrastructure issues such as the city side development of the airport, providing services and connectivity, and linking up with tourism and the hospitality industry so that visitors and business travellers are assured of a pleasant experience. In 2008, designated the ‘Year of Helicopters,’ development of heliports or helipads is expected to get special attention, and these could be planned in such a way that they provide connectivity to the new airports too.

 Democratic campaign: America at its best

 

Ramesh Thakur

 

 

 

Barring a truly spectacular upset, regardless of what happens from now on, the Democratic Party will have either a black or a woman as its presidential candidate.

 

 

 

 

 

Several readers have wondered about my reaction after Barack Obama’s loss to Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary, and then been surprised at my answer. For on balance, it was a satisfying and pleasing outcome, for four reasons.

First, there is at least a symmetry, if not consistency, to the results from Iowa and New Hampshire. In both cases, public opinion polls and the media had been proclaiming a coronation: of Hillary before Iowa and Barack after. In both cases, the people delivered a sharp rebuke to the pundits as well as the candidates: we want a contest, not a coronation. Don’t take us for granted. Don’t tell us how we are going to vote, especially if we ourselves haven’t made up our minds yet.

That said, the puzzle of the polls being so wrong remains, especially as they proved remarkably accurate for the Republican Party’s field. Both Iowa and New Hampshire had large numbers of people deciding at the last moment, torn between two equally attractive candidates if for different reasons with differing strengths and weaknesses. In Iowa they balanced out in the final result, in New Hampshire they broke disproportionately for Ms Clinton. One popular explanation is “the moment” when Hillary teared up and revealed an unexpected vulnerability. (Ironically, the woman who asked the question that provoked this response voted for Mr. Obama in the end.)

TV stations replayed the scene endlessly in the last two days of the campaign. Many argued it was a synthetic moment. (It seemed authentic enough.) Others argued that even if genuine, it was an “Edmund Muskie” moment in that the meltdown would prove to voters that Hillary just wasn’t strong enough to be President. The worst of the conservative talkshow hosts mocked and ridiculed her. Then there was the man with the sign asking her to iron his shirt. Cumulatively, they had the effect, predictable and understandable, of riling large numbers of women, especially those old enough to remember that rights and opportunities that women take for granted today had to be bitterly fought for by earlier generations, and that Hillary was indeed speaking for them. The open display of sexism fired them up and energised them into identifying and closing ranks with Ms Clinton. It was a show of spontaneous solidarity and defiance, and good on them. On top of that, in a rare slip, Mr. Obama himself had been patronising and condescending in saying Hillary was likeable enough.

It may also be that the opinion polls proved self-defeating. With double digit leads for Mr. Obama, some potential supporters had the luxury of venting their anger at Ms Clinton’s treatment confident that Mr. Obama would still win. An alternative, less attractive explanation, finally, is that some people are simply not ready to vote for an African-American (in the case of Mr. Obama, this terminology is of course literally accurate) in the privacy of the polling booth but not prepared to admit to this in opinion polling. We can only hope this, if true, is restricted to a tiny minority.

Secondly, as someone who believes strongly in democracy, and argued passionately for it even when it was highly unfashionable in much of the third world, I would have been aghast if the two major parties’ presidential standard bearers had been chosen by less than half a per cent of the eligible voters. It’s okay for the first two events to influence and shape, even disproportionately, the campaign for the nominations. It would have been a travesty of democratic elections for them to determine the outcome. It is conceivable that the process may go all the way to the convention, and wouldn’t that be exciting.

Thirdly, my sympathies and bias are with the Democratic Party: not always, not even mostly, but certainly in this year’s contest. As a long-time admirer of America, I have been profoundly dismayed and distressed at the collapse of the United States’ reputation and moral authority just about all over the world (ironically, India is one of the few major exceptions alongside Israel) under the Bush administration. A genuinely and fiercely fought contest between Mr. Obama and Ms Clinton will have a doubly beneficial consequence. On the one hand, it will expose the weaknesses and vulnerabilities during the primary stage itself, rather than have the candidate implode during the election campaign against the Republican opponent, as happened with John Kerry in the last election when he was belittled mercilessly, unfairly but successfully and a new word entered the political lexicon: “swiftboating”. On the other hand, it will toughen up both candidates, make them battle hardened and far better prepared against everything that the Republican Party will throw at them. In Hillary’s words, it will leave the eventual candidate truly tested and vetted.

As a specific example, consider Hillary’s famous moment in her victory speech after New Hampshire when she declared that during the preceding week she had listened to the voters and in the process found her own voice. One could be nasty and point out the inconvenient truth: if she had not found her voice until the final week of the New Hampshire primary, what of her vaunted decades of experience and readiness to govern from day one? Still, better late than never. Conversely, the Obama campaign fell into the trap of complacency and showed itself to be less hungry than Ms Clinton in pursuing every last possible voter from the first moment every morning until the last moment in the final evening. She connected to the voters through interactive Q&A sessions, he spoke to them through stump speeches. He no doubt has learnt from and will not repeat the mistake.

Having said all this, let us look at a few positives that have come out of the campaign so far, happily showcasing America at its best. The people get to choose the party’s standard bearers. This is in sharp and joyous contrast to the parliamentary system — including Australia, Canada, India and Japan — where the party can replace a Prime Minister, who may have led it to success at the polls, with someone else solely through internal party decisions. In the U.K., the Labour Party was led to triumph by Tony Blair but the Prime Minister today is Gordon Brown who is yet to be voted on by the people. America’s is the more openly democratic process.

Moreover, the outcome of the process will be determined by a contest of visions and ideas for what is best for the country’s governance. My sympathies this year for the Democrats notwithstanding, I am pleased that on the Republican side the new front-runner is John McCain. I disagree with his views on Iraq, but I respect the fact that in his case they are rooted in genuine and honourable convictions. Let us not forget that he was among the earliest to call for the dismissal of the disastrous Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in an act of accountability for the serial disasters in Iraq. Even more critically, he has been an outspoken and consistent critic of the shameful resort to torture by the U.S. that has proven so damaging politically without producing any tangible benefits operationally. And his life story is compelling, a true life history of heroism on a gripping scale.

Most importantly, barring a truly spectacular upset, regardless of what happens from here on, the Democratic Party will have either a black or a woman as its presidential candidate. As long as neither Mr. Obama nor Ms Clinton wins every single primary from now, this campaign will have broken through the two profound taboos of race and gender. Never before has either won a major primary. It is already a historic outcome. The true destination of a discrimination-free world is when we vote for or against candidates without a moment’s thought to a person’s race, religion or gender. As someone said of Hillary Clinton, they have a problem not with her first but with her second name. In the race for the Democratic Party nomination, people will now vote largely on grounds of the performance, personality and promise of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton; their respective competence (the prose that informs) and competing visions (the poetry that inspires). That is cause enough for us to celebrate.

My abiding memory of those who protest about the United States is the placard that read “Yankee go home — and take me with you!” With any one of the three among Ms Clinton, Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama, America can come home to its founding values and begin to restore the aura and allure of the city on the hill.

(Ramesh Thakur is Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation and Professor of Political Science at the University of Waterloo.)

 Bush drumming up support for Ahmadinejad

 

Simon Jenkins

 

 

 

In talking war and being feted by autocrats in the Gulf, the U.S. President is, in fact, helping his Iranian counterpart.

 

 

 

 

 

Only one man can rescue embattled Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from his growing domestic unpopularity. That man is George W. Bush. Mr. Ahmadinejad faces elections in March and an increasingly disaffected clergy, but he feeds on Mr. Bush’s antagonism. This week Mr. Bush has duly obliged. He has raced round the Middle East drumming up support for his Iranian foe.

Mr. Bush has denounced Mr. Ahmadinejad at every turn. He has offered to sanction him, embargo him, isolate him, even bomb him. He has portrayed him as a monster of evil and “leading sponsor of terror.” He has showered the Saudis and the Gulf states with $20 billion of weapons to confront him “before it is too late.” When Mr. Ahmadinejad thanked “divine intervention” for making him President in 2005, he should also have thanked God for having first selected Mr. Bush. To have Washington as your enemy in these parts is to have every man your friend.

The dwindling raggle-taggle army of neocons is currently trying to portray U.S. strategy in the region as a success after all. This is entirely based on news from Iraq, where General David Petraeus has reduced the death rate of Americans and Iraqis from the astronomical to the merely appalling. Since this conflict is far too dangerous to report properly, world opinion is reliant on a notional monthly kill rate to measure progress. General Petraeus, or at least the exhausted citizens of Iraq, have thus offered the White House a respite from horror.

The tactics are exactly those that General Petraeus’ predecessors rejected in the past four years of mayhem. He has encouraged and armed local militias, good and bad, to defend their communities. In Anbar province, this has meant backing Sunni sheikhs and former Ba’athist gangsters, styled “the awakening,” to face down the Al-Qaeda mafia. This was suggested by British MI6 agents in 2003 and rejected by the Pentagon. In Baghdad, the tactic has meant building fortified and ethnically cleansed ghettos, mostly in Sunni areas, and arming them against the former campaign of slaughter by the Shia militia/police, many of whom work for the Interior Ministry.

Wise commander

 

 

Within the ambit of American protection, this has meant a modified return to normality. General Petraeus has proved a wise commander. His men do not go kicking their way into women’s bedrooms, shooting family parties and shelling villages, which was Donald Rumsfeld’s way of winning hearts and minds. There is also a limit to how long any citizenry can remain in a state of medieval siege. Markets will struggle to operate. Schools will try to reopen.

Elsewhere, old habits die hard. Last week the biggest bombing raid since the invasion was unleashed on a populated area in Diyala, north-east of Baghdad, causing as yet unrecorded devastation. On January 14, one of Iraq’s most distinguished judges was left unprotected and was assassinated. Water and power supplies to the capital are said to be worse than ever. No effort has been made to stave off the conflict likely to envelop oil-rich Kirkuk, let alone a simmering war on the Kurdish-Turkish border. In other words, it remained unthinkable that Mr. Bush’s lap of honour round the region last week might include the city he supposedly “liberated.”

Sooner or later the Americans must withdraw from the enclaves they have de facto partitioned. A new, home-grown, home-fought balance of power will be found in Iraq. General Petraeus’ strategy is certainly the best yet tried by the coalition, but it offers no long-term surety of law and order because it is backed by no political settlement. It is worth noting that Basra, from whose civil chaos British troops withdrew in despair last year, has dropped from the radar. It is strange what happens when alien forces withdraw from occupied lands.

Stripped of its post-9/11 retribution, bombast, and militarism, American policy towards the Muslim world has been to promote democracy as the one sure means to prosperity and peace. Condoleezza Rice and others declared in 2005 that “the bad old days of favouring stability over democracy are over.” Even friends such as the Egyptians and the Saudis were mildly rebuked for turning a deaf ear to this message. As policy, this was noble. If America (and Britain) were ill-advised to call it a crusade, there are certainly worse causes to promote.

Yet Mr. Bush and Tony Blair were unaware of how their inevitably “neo-imperial” wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, coupled with American support for Israel’s expansionism, would render their crusade hopelessly hypocritical. Muslim democracy is a moot concept, but it has made a sort of imprint on Iran, Palestine, Lebanon, and even Iraq and Pakistan. Yet it was not these leaders that Mr. Bush graced with a visit this past week. He went to Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Bahrain, where he was feted with gifts of gold, rubies, emeralds, and diamonds. It sure beat a walkabout in downtown Baghdad.

Taliban ‘blowback’

 

 

In Pakistan, Mr. Bush continues to back dictatorship and must suffer the resulting Taliban “blowback” in Afghanistan. In Palestine he ignores the winner of an election, Hamas. He appeases Hosni Mubarak’s dictatorship in Egypt and is craven to the leaders of Saudi Arabia. His spokesman, Steve Hadley, challenged on what such rulers contribute to democracy, could only bumble that “these folks are on board with the freedom agenda, and are pursuing it in their own fashion.” Stability trumped democracy after all.

Insofar as any strategy lay behind the Bush trip, it was a hope that the monarchs of the Gulf might support the U.S. in military action against Mr. Bush’s pet hate, Mr. Ahmadinejad. Yet if there is one lesson these rulers know, it is to live at peace with the wilder regimes to their north and east. Indeed, keeping them wild suits them fine. Dubai is built on the funk money of the region. The last thing the Persian Gulf intends to do is help the U.S. to yet another war, least of all with Iran.

Final irony

 

 

Meanwhile, Mr. Bush cannot even see the final irony. The one thing that might unseat Mr. Ahmadinejad is a poor showing against the moderates in the half-free parliamentary elections in March. If his party does badly, there is a chance of a more reasonable regime taking over, reasonable on anything from Iraq to nuclear weapons. At least it is worth waiting.

Yet Mr. Bush does everything to generate the paranoia on which Mr. Ahmadinejad bases his electoral appeal. He threatens him with the constraint of war, and thus dilutes the constraint of democracy. Does Mr. Bush not realise how attack from outside helps an embattled leader? Has he forgotten 9/11?

 Race for Bharat Ratna

 

Ever since the BJP leader and Leader of the Opposition L.K. Advani wrote to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recommending Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s name for Bharat Ratna, a growing list of names has started doing the rounds. The selection of the recipient of the prestigious award should be the sole prerogative of the President.

T.K. Raman,

Kochi

 

* * *

 

Campaigning for any award devalues its prestige. By going public with the names for Bharat Ratna, the proposers have caused embarrassment to the nominees as well as the jury. In successive acts of me-too-ism, politicians have named the senior leaders of their parties or communities. To put an end to this unseemly development, it would be wise for the government to discontinue the award.

D. Balasubramanian,

 Sydney Test

 

The article “The Sydney Test: will it revive fairness?” (Jan. 15) presented a brilliant and outstanding analysis. Not only in Australia but also in inter-club matches back home, fielders indulge in verbal jousts against the opponents. Is it not the duty and responsibility of local cricket associations to come down heavily on such uncivilised behaviour? I think the “pack of wild dogs” is here, there and everywhere.

B.R. Kumar,

Chennai

 

* * *

 

The Harbhajan issue as dealt with by Mike Proctor and the conclusion reached by him are amazing, to say the least. Of the three Australians who are said to have heard the so-called racist remark, one knew he was out but did not walk, and another stood waiting for the umpire’s signal when he had clearly nicked the ball to the slip and was caught and, more importantly, claimed that he held a grounded catch.

Harbhajan denies making the comment, the umpires did not hear him; nor did Ricky Ponting or Sachin Tendulkar. But Mr. Procter is satisfied that the words were said. If one has decided to take the word of the person making the accusation and his friends, what is the need for a ‘hearing?’

S. Suryanarayanan,

 “The issue is the cost of health care”

 

Ramya Kannan

 

 

 

Michael O. Leavitt, U.S. Secretary of State for Health, on making health care more transparent in quality and price, and reducing the time and expense of bringing safe and effective drugs to the market.

 

 

 

 

 

 

— Photo: S. R. Raghunathan

Michael O Leavitt: “There is a lot to be learnt from what has been in practice in India for many, many centuries — we are interested in that.”

 

As Secretary of State for Health in the United States, Michael O. Leavitt heads one of the largest civilian departments in the federal government with a budget that accounts for almost one out of every four federal dollars spent. In India recently, on the invitation of Union Health Minister Anbumani Ramadoss, Mr. Leavitt spent time interacting with senior officials, leaders of the health care and export industries in India, visiting sites that produce food and medicines for export to the U.S. and reviewing facilities that deliver polio vaccine and provide care and treatment for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. In Chennai, on the first leg of his tour, Mr. Leavitt spoke to The Hindu, making a strong case for collaborations to standardise the quality of food and drug products to ensure safe and effective treatments. Excerpts:

Coming from the insurance sector yourself you must be aware that there are concerns about medical insurance worldwide. People in India do have health insurance cards, but not sufficient institutions where they can use the cards. The card itself is only notional in many cases. In the U.S. too, there are concerns about the rising costs of health insurance and universal coverage. Do you have plans to address some of these issues?

 

 

As you point out, the issue is the cost of health care. Access to health insurance is a closely related one, because the higher the cost the fewer the people who can afford health insurance. You also make a very important point — that is — just because people are provided a card, it does not necessarily mean they get care and if they do not have a card it does not necessarily mean that they do not get care. In the United States, there are roughly 47 million people who do not have insurance but there are mechanisms in place for them to get care. And they do. We need to solve the problem of those 47 million people — because they are not part of the insurance mechanism, it has the effect of distorting the costs to everyone else. And the best system is when everyone is included and every American is part of the insurance system.

In the United States the cost has become extraordinarily high, even unsustainably high. In the United States, health care is 16 per cent of the GDP and it is headed for 20 per cent. That is a great concern. So we are working to get at the root of that, which is learning to measure quality and value. In the United States there are very few people who know how much their health care costs because the insurance company pays for it. There are very few people who know the quality they get in comparison to others. So our objective is to create a system where people have access to information about the quality of care they are receiving in relationship to the cost. We have learnt over time in every other sector of our economy that if people have information about the cost and quality they will make choices that will drive the quality up and costs down. So that is the primary focus of our effort — giving consumers more information about cost and quality and creating a market based on value.

You talk of unsustainable health care costs. Will that lead to the U.S. looking at India as a health care destination?

 

 

There are many countries in the world that have made health tourism/medical tourism a targeted industry. I had conversations with the Minister for Health Anbumani Ramadoss and am aware of India’s interests in that. I expect that there will be interest on the part of some private parties in the United States to participate. However, I don’t expect that we will see our government programmes necessarily turning [in] that direction.

There are several areas of collaboration between the U.S. and India in the health sector. Are you looking, with this trip, to enhance the portfolio in some way?

 

 

I would generally like to continue the good, positive relationship we have with India on health. I will be spending time on how to avoid problems related to product safety in the future. In the past we have been co-operating on HIV, vaccine, biotechnology, malaria, and training of scientists. I want to add to that portfolio the area of product safety — food, feed, drugs and devices. Particularly in the area of product safety we have a mutual interest that is focussed on health. That is an important component of our economic relationship as well. It is in the interests of Indian producers of products to have them well-defined as high quality and safe because the world marketplace will punish, harshly and swiftly, anyone who is not perceived to have safe, effective products. As we see the world marketplace mature, a system will have to be put into place to do that and we want to co-operate with India to make certain that not only our citizens are protected, but that the brand “Made in India” is protected. We have seen in the United States incidents, relatively isolated, where the safety of imported products has created a lot of concern. We are working hard with the Chinese to make certain the systems are in place to give people confidence about the safety of imported products they are consuming. It would be well for us in our relationship with India to learn from that rather than wait for an incident that might somehow be overstated or somehow become a symbol.

With reference to setting standards, Dr. Anbumani Ramadoss has been talking about a Food and Drug Authority-like regulatory body in India. Will you extend support towards setting up this institution?

 

 

One thing we have in common is a desire to have safe and effective treatments — whether it is drugs or devices. And we fully support the Indian government’s efforts to create a drug safety administration referred to as the Central Drug Authority. We have extended, and will continue to extend, technical assistance in its development. We think that is not only important for Indian interest but the United States has an inherent interest because many of the products our consumers use come from India.

Are you concerned about the safety, standard of drugs that come from India?

 

 

I have no particular concern about drugs from India. However I want to be clear that as the global market matures, and more and more goods come from other countries, whether India or any other country, my responsibility is to ensure that they are safe and effective for citizens and consumers in the United States. I know my colleagues here have the same interest about their citizens. But we now need to begin to co-ordinate our systems so that as we have trade that involves medicines or drugs or foods, we have systems that will accommodate our respective needs for safety.

There is a huge thrust on validating treatments and formulations from the Indian Systems of Medicine (ISM) in India today. Is the U.S. looking at using treatments from the ISM?

 

 

I recently spent a considerable amount of time in China looking at their traditional medicine. We have at our National Institutes of Health (NIH), one centre that focusses on alternative and complementary methods. We think there is a great deal of potential that can be learnt using traditional methods of healing as long as we are applying good science. So our effort is to take things, understand it better, apply good science to it and apply it or use it. I met in China Mr. Chim, who is world renowned for treating leukaemia. He told me that he had been trained in traditional Chinese medicine and had a hunch that if arsenic was introduced into the treatment it could have a potent effect, because he had seen that in traditional Chinese medicine. And it became the keystone to saving tens of thousands of lives all over the world. That is an example of how using traditional methods of healing will benefit us. There is a lot to be learnt from what has been in practice in India for many, many centuries — we are interested in that.

Would you be willing as a nation to collaborate on validation of some of the formulations in the ISM?

 

 

Yes.

One change that the Indian health care industry has been hoping for is to have a certain common medical curriculum across nations. The U.S. has a lot of Indians working as doctors and now there is an influx of nurses. Will it help if we have a common medical curriculum, in terms of exchange of human resources?

 

 

I want to answer that in a more general way and then we can talk more specifically. One of my primary purposes in visiting [India] is import safety. We have a common interest in safe products for Indian citizens and citizens of the U.S. In order to accomplish that, we need to have high standards and methods of being able to certify that those standards have been met. It is impossible for those who are producing the goods to meet varying standards with any level of efficiency and therefore it is important that we begin to develop common standards for products. One could carry that to the point of recognising that there is value in having common standards with respect to the training of health professionals as well. There is a lot happening in that area already. I was told that we have nearly 350 Indian physicians and scientists who are currently working in the United States in partnership with the Centers for Disease Control and the NIH. I suppose we have some people in the FDA too. There are an extraordinary number of students who attend medical schools in the United States. I think as the global market begins to mature, there will be a natural need for us to find standards.

You have already been at the Tambaram Sanatorium, which is one of the key areas of interaction between India and the U.S. in terms of health. What are your impressions?

 

 

I am very proud of the partnership that exists between my department at the United States government and the Ministry of Health and other Ministries. [At Tambaram] I saw a very good example of the work India has done, not only in terms of progress, but also aspirations. I understand that the clinic we attended today [January 7] is a model and they want to expand it to other areas. I was impressed by many of the things I saw. Most of all, I think I was there to not just see what they are doing but also express the pleasure we have in being partners

 Why not a Rs.5000 computer?

 

A fully featured low cost computer to bridge the digital divide in the less developed world remains elusive, despite advances in computing technologies. Affordability is a major barrier to wider computer and Internet access. When the non-profit One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) project was presented to the World Economic Forum in 2005, outlining the goal of providing a hundred dollar laptop to every poor child, it received a rapturous welcome. Children and teachers who got the first bright green XO laptops under the project during trials in countries such as Nigeria were thrilled. Few will argue about the laptop’s virtues: it has no moving parts; can withstand hot weather, rough handling, monsoons, and dust; sports a backlit screen visible in daylight; runs on open source software; and wirelessly connects to the Internet. For these reasons the OLPC product, which is yet to reach its aspirational price point, enthused digital divide campaigners, including the then United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan. Fifty countries have shown interest. But true scaling up is an arduous exercise and needs massive manufacturing facilities. Unsurprisingly, therefore, the recent exit of chip-making giant Intel, which joined OLPC last year, is seen as a serious setback to the project.

The difficulties involved in scaling up low cost computing devices to reach the masses are all too familiar in India. The indigenously developed Simputer and the low cost Mobilis — once hailed as wondrous answers to the digital divide — did not make it to the market. By contrast, mobile phone penetration has grown by leaps and bounds. The trends in mobile telephony touching most sections of the working class — the wireless subscriber base grew to over 225 millions by November 2007 — show that the right devices with a good value proposition are assured of success. The psychological equivalent in the automotive world is the introduction of Tata Motors’ Nano at the inconceivably low price of Rs.1 lakh. If the IT industry sets itself a benchmark of, say, Rs.5,000 and achieves scales of manufacture, it could yet come up with a computer of inestimable educational and social value in rising India where deprivation on a gigantic scale is a reality. The advantages of running thin computing systems, where the bulk of software resides in a server and not with the user, make it technically possible to produce low cost but versatile and quality machines. Next generation mobile networks with higher bandwidths can provide wireless Internet connectivity. Only such bold, technologically and socially imaginative, out-of-the-box approaches can connect India’s underprivileged, above all children, to the knowledge economy

Little chance of success

 

The United States President George W. Bush must be out of touch with reality if he believes that he will be able to persuade Israelis and Palestinians to reach a peace agreement before he leaves office in January 2009. Mr. Bush does not even appear to have realised that the deal he outlined during his visit to West Asia could well aggravate the problem. On merits, the proposals put forward are not outlandish. After years of negotiations, it seems very likely that the borders of a Palestinian state will be based on, but not be identical to, the armistice line that prevailed between 1948 and 1967. There is also little chance that Israel will allow Palestinian refugees to return in large numbers to its territories. But, in highlighting these two points while refusing to comment on the future of Jerusalem and the West Bank settlements, Mr. Bush strengthened the impression that he can see the dispute only from the Israeli perspective. As Palestinian commentators have observed, the U.S. President, in effect, reiterated the four “No’s” that have underpinned the Zionist state’s approach to the negotiations: no reaffirmation of the 1967 border; no return of refugees; no dismantlement of settlements; and no sharing of Jerusalem. A peace plan presented in this format is hardly likely to be welcomed wholeheartedly by the Palestinian masses.

Israel’s Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas have of course decided to proceed on the basis of the Bush plan. What other choice did they have? The current stalemate is so untenable that violence could break out any time on the scale witnessed in the early 2000s. Mr. Olmert and Mr. Abbas have to create an impression that they are moving forward. But both leaders have scant popular support and will find it very difficult to arrive at an agreement that deals adequately with all contentious issues. While the various plans drawn up over the years did have much in common, the two sides were not able to clinch a final settlement even when the leadership on either side was strong. Under present circumstances, Israelis and Palestinians are not likely to reconcile their differences unless pressured by the international community. The Arab League has put forward a plan that offers Israel an opportunity for integrating into the region if it renders justice to the Palestinians. The U.S. too is supposed to be working together with the European Union, Russia, and the United Nations. However, Mr. Bush has neither taken their help nor thrown the full weight of his own country behind his peace proposals.

 The Sydney Test: will it revive fairness?

 

Anil Divan

 

 

 

 

 

---

Planned, systematic, expert-supported attack by verbal jousts and other tactics to ‘mentally disintegrate’ the opposition is subversive of the spirit of the game. It must be banned.

---

 

 

The Sydney Test is a milestone in cricket history. It has spawned many issues and raised innumerable questions of reforms in the International Cricket Council rules. Peter Roebuck’s felicitous phrase “a pack of wild dogs” will forever remain in collective cricket memory. In India, it has already achieved ‘Vedic status.’

The Sydney imbroglio revives memories of the bodyline controversy of 1932-33 during the Ashes Series in Australia. Its condemnation was best expressed by Walter Hammond, a member of Douglas Jardine’s English team and later captain of England, “I condemn it absolutely. Bodyline is dangerous. I have had to face it, and I would have got out of the game if it had been allowed to persist.”

Bodyline cricket targeted a batsman physically. Currently, the Australian philosophy as now supported by James Sutherland (Cricket Australia) is to attack the opponents’ minds and achieve ‘mental disintegration’. If bodyline is banned because it is a dangerous physical threat, why tactics of ‘mental disintegration’ are not?

But let me first congratulate a large segment of the Australian media and sportspersons which has vigorously criticised its own team. Australia is a cricket-loving nation and so is India. The two countries are vibrant democracies with a shared vision and cherished values of freedom of speech and media, the rule of law and a passion for fairness and equality.

I have, as Lawasia president, interacted with the Australian legal fraternity — judges and lawyers. They have nurtured and preserved an independent and fearless legal system based on fairness. Recently, Indian doctor Mohammed Haneef’s visa was cancelled as a consequence of his suspected links with abortive terror attacks in London and Glasgow. The efforts of barristers Peter Russo and Stephen Keim were highly appreciated in India.

 

For many cricket-lovers in India, Don Bradman is still considered numero uno, surpassing W.G. Grace, Ranji, and our own Sachin Tendulkar. Bradman in his Farewell to Cricket narrates how the bodyline controversy was given a quietus by the MCC ruling that any form of bowling which is obviously a direct attack by the bowler on the batsmen would be an offence against the spirit of the game and was therefore unfair. Bradman mentions the comment of Sir Pelham Warner in 1932 even before the bodyline controversy arose in an English cricket match — “Bowes must alter his tactics. Bowes bowled with five men on the on-side and sent down several very short-pitched balls which repeatedly bounced head-high and more. Now that is not bowling, indeed it is not cricket.”

The ICC must seriously consider the whole philosophy and tactics of ‘mental disintegration’ and ‘sledging’ raised to the level of a science by Cricket Australia. A deliberate, well-planned, intensely rehearsed and fine-tuned campaign with the assistance of expert psychologists including media blitz and abusive on-field verbal ‘sledging’. ‘Sledging’ literally means hitting with a heavy blacksmith hammer. Cricket is all about ‘fairness,’ and ‘fair’ means honest, just and straight-forward.

Steve Waugh refers to an article by John Thicknesse in 1994 in Wisden which said “Border (Allan) will be remembered in England with respect than affection stemmed from his condoning not infrequently his participation in the sledging of opponents and umpires during play in open violation of ICC’s Code of Conduct.” Waugh continues “Direct abuse to me is sledging — and should never be allowed … Occasionally abuse did arise, and it was an area we needed to clean up as we were aware kids were copying our every move and such an example was not the one we wanted to set.” Waugh’s plea has fallen on deaf years. James Sutherland is in a belligerent, combative and unrepentant mood. He has ridiculed India and said that test cricket is not “tiddly winks” and that Australia played hard and fair and will continue to do so.

Guha Ray quotes Tony Greig on ‘sledging’ by Australians in a speech in Johannesburg (Tehelka, January 19, 2008) — “I have never heard anything like it. The whole thing is getting out of hand and the time has seriously come for the authorities in the game to rethink the question of what players are allowed to say on the field.”

What is the way forward? In the short term, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s advice “to settle the matter at the first available opportunity” and Foreign Minister Stephen Smith’s wise words — it is time for “cool heads” — should be accepted.

But the BCCI should not lower its guard. The text, content and full reasons of Mike Procter’s order banning Harbhajan Singh were on the website of neither the ICC nor the BCCI when this article was written. Nor is the verbatim order available with the media. Why this lack of transparency? Surely, the Indian public is entitled to know.

With difficulty, a full copy was made available to me by a generous source. The charge was Harbhajan calling Andrew Symonds a ‘monkey.’

A few important portions of the reasons given by Procter are extracted:

“The first issue for me is, did Harbhajan Singh say the word ‘monkey’ or ‘big monkey’? I have heard evidence from Andrew Symonds, Michael Clarke and Matthew Hayden that he did say these words. Harbhajan denies saying these words. Both umpires did not hear, nor did Ricky Ponting or Sachin Tendulkar. I am satisfied and sure beyond reasonable doubt that Harbhajan Singh did say these words.”

“I am satisfied that the words were said and that the complaint to the umpires which forms this charge would not have been put forward falsely. I dismiss any suggestion of motive or malice”.

“Whatever may have been said between them prior to Harbhajan Singh calling Andrew Symonds a monkey is irrelevant. There is history between these two players.”

He finds that Tendulkar and the umpires were not in a position to hear the words. He took into account a joint statement issued after the Mumbai incident by the Indian and Australian Boards regarding the rest as irrelevant.

The order has many glaring infirmities.

First, the finding is not clear as to whether what Harbhajan said was ‘monkey’ or ‘big monkey.’ Obviously there is a discrepancy in the evidence. The charge mentioned only ‘monkey.’ Secondly, Australian witnesses were all present at the same time. Evidence should have been taken singly and other witnesses kept out. Thirdly, no reasons are given; only conclusions mentioned. Particularly, the observation “this charge would not have been put forward falsely” — and the unreasoned dismissal of the suggestion of “motive and malice.” The dishonest behaviour of Ponting and Clarke was seen in live television coverage. They repeatedly appealed though the catches were grounded. Harbhajan’s batting on that day had frustrated the Australians. Ponting has repeatedly been dismissed by Harbhajan and is now Harbhajan’s ‘bunny.’

Fourthly, the prior events and conversation between Symonds and Harbhajan — the most relevant fact — is rejected as irrelevant. Harbhajan had patted Brett Lee who never protested nor complained nor came as a witness. Symonds officiously intervened even though “there is history between these two players” and as admitted by him in the Press “he had a go at him” and “took a crack at Harbhajan.” Symonds was then ‘gagged’ by Cricket Australia. Obviously, there was provocative ‘sledging’ — why was it irrelevant? Apparently, a well-planned provocation, leading to a false complaint to remove a thorn from the Australian side. A classic attempt to achieve ‘mental disintegration’. Facts sufficient to raise a reasonable doubt were ignored. Mike Procter’s error, if not bias, is apparent. Fifthly, the BCCI needs to look carefully at the article written by Avirook Sen (Hindustan Times, Jan. 9, 2008) about the biases, views and opinions of Mike Procter during the ‘Apartheid’ days. He reportedly characterised India’s stand against the ban on South African cricket as hypocritical.

In the long term, there is the wider question of fairness and preserving the spirit of the game. Rules have to be modified. Some forms of abuse may be terms of endearment in Australia but in the playing fields of India, they would provoke fisticuffs and even a minor riot. Planned, systematic, expert-supported attack by verbal jousts and other tactics to ‘mentally disintegrate’ the opposition is subversive of the spirit of the game. It must be banned. Further technology must be utilised widely with the players’ right to appeal. Seven out of the eight horrible decisions in the Sydney Test could have been avoided.

If Cricket Australia wants a fight and no change in the rules, the Australian ‘dingo’ will have to be reined in by the ‘British lion’ and the ‘three Asian tigers.’

Finally, I salute the Australian media and its great sportspersons for their forthright criticism while ‘pointing’ an accusing finger at James Sutherland, the face of the “Ugly Australians.”

 Benazir’s heir and the future of Pakistan

 

Hasan Suroor

 

 

 

 

 

---

The sympathy factor will vanish soon, and Bilawal will not be allowed to get away with the sort of stuff he peddled during his first media outing in London.

---

 

 

Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s first international outing last week as the head of the Pakistan People’s Party nearly descended into a shambles, thanks to the ill-advised choice of the venue — the basement of a small London hotel that was apparently his mum’s favourite haunt. Such a setting might have done for a 19-year-old Oxford undergraduate with a less famous name and dynastic ambitions, but — as The Times noted — it proved clearly “unfit for the purpose” at hand, which was to present “Pakistan’s young pretender” to the world press.

Clearly, Mr. Bhutto’s advisers underestimated the media interest in their young leader, resulting in chaotic scenes with scores of journalists crammed into a tiny room jostling for space and yelling for attention.

Except for a few sharp questions about his dynastic succession, Mr. Bhutto was given an easy ride by reporters, some of whom had known his mother. But it was a one-off. Soon, the sympathy factor will vanish, exposing him to closer scrutiny; and with the kid-gloves gone, he will not be allowed to get away with the sort of stuff he peddled that morning.

Yet, for his age and, given the circumstances, he handled it well, appearing to bristle only once when the BBC’s Jeremy Paxman, notorious for his robust interrogation technique, wanted to know if his coronation wasn’t a bit like treating the party as a “piece of family furniture.”

“I did what I had to do”

 

 

“No, it [the leadership] was not handed down as family furniture. In a moment of crisis, I was called and I stepped up and I did what I had to do,” Mr. Bhutto said, though admitting under pressure that continuing the Bhutto “bloodline” was important for the unity of the party.

For the most part, it was a confident and self-assured performance, and if the idea was to unveil the new PPP boss to the world before he lost his innocence, it worked. Particularly, it was his prognosis of Pakistan at this critical juncture that resonated with his mostly Western audience. He told them what they wanted to hear — namely that Pakistan was teetering on the brink, thus confirming the conventional wisdom among British political pundits.

“I fear for my country, I fear that if free and fair elections are not held it may disintegrate,” he said.

“Disintegration” has been a central theme of the debate on Pakistan’s future in the wake of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination. Benazir is seen to have been Pakistan’s “last hope” and with her murder — the argument goes — it is, effectively, all over for that blighted country.

Pakistan’s worst crisis

 

 

Seldom have terms such as “disintegration” and “on the brink of collapse” been used so widely and with such certitude as in relation to Pakistan in recent days. The post-Benazir turmoil has been portrayed as Pakistan’s worst crisis in its 60-year-old tempestuous history — a blow from which, it is argued, it can recover only if President Pervez Musharraf is sent packing, paving the way for full-blooded Western-style democracy.

The venerable Economist declared General (retd.) Musharraf’s Pakistan the “world’s most dangerous place,” and warned that it is in Pakistan that the “war” against Islamist extremism would be “won or lost.” In a chilling depiction of the current state of Pakistan, it had a cover dominated by a hand-grenade painted in the colour of Pakistan’s national flag, and ready to go off. The visual was matched by a relentlessly gloomy analysis arguing that Benazir’s murder had made Pakistan more vulnerable to being overrun by the Taliban brand of Islamic fundamentalism, which could turn it into a version of what Afghanistan was when the Taliban ruled that country.

On President Musharraf and his American patrons, its verdict was that for too long he had been allowed to pay “lip-service to democratic forms” while Washington looked the other way. “It is time to impress upon him and the Generals still propping him up that democracy … is Pakistan’s only hope,” it said.

It is striking how a man who, recently, was regarded as the best bet for Pakistan is now being portrayed as its biggest liability. And, in death, Benazir has become the saviour-who-was-not-to-be. Some of the very same arguments that were once used to justify Western backing for President Musharraf (in a land of “mullahs,” he was hailed as a beacon of secular and liberal values) are now being advanced to glorify Benazir, her added USP being that she was also a “democrat” and, with her Harvard and Oxford background, “one of us.”

It is acknowledged that Benazir’s two terms in office were a disaster — a record of incompetence and broken promises, compounded by allegations of corruption and cronyism. Her role in encouraging the sort of extremists who killed her is also widely recognised, as is the opportunistic nature of her deal with President Musharraf. But, for all that — it is argued — she was the only national leader. And, crucially, she was not General Musharraf — supposedly the most hated figure in Pakistan since his disastrous experiment with Emergency. There is almost a touching romanticism in the way visions of a Benazir-led Pakistan are being invoked. To quote the Economist again: “Pakistan may not have realised how much it would miss her, until now she is gone.”

Expatriate observers, with a better understanding of the dynamics of their country’s politics than instant Pakistan “experts” in the British commentariat, have fewer illusions. With memories of her two governments still fresh in their minds, they reject the notion that she was going to be a force for real change.

Writing in The New Statesman, Ziauddin Sardar, one of Britain’s most respected analysts of Pakistani affairs, argued that despite her avowedly secular, democratic and liberal outlook, Benazir “fostered the politics of elective feudalism” when in office and unleashed the very forces that ultimately claimed her life.

“Her terms in office were characterised not just by corruption and nepotism, but also by revenge and human rights abuses. She had the largest Cabinet in the history of Pakistan; she even made her unelected husband minister for investment, which was generally seen as an open invitation to corruption. A common joke during her second term was that the infant Bilawal had been awarded the portfolio of minister for children,” he wrote.

Writer Tariq Ali recalled how after coming to power on the back of a manifesto that promised social justice and land reforms, she cheerfully abandoned it. In a private conversation, she told him that the world had changed and she didn’t want to end up on the “wrong side of history” by clinging on to the old promises.

In well-informed Pakistani circles, the view is that a third Bhutto government was unlikely to have been significantly different from the previous two. Wiser by experience and in order to appear more democratic than General Musharraf, with whom she was going to share power, Benazir might have been less autocratic this time. But in terms of policy, it would have made little difference.

“Structural” problems

 

 

Historian Yasmin Khan says that the debate has been focussed too much on personalities and individuals whereas the real crisis facing Pakistan was “structural.” The question is whether Pakistan can rid itself of the structures that have brought it to such a pass. Nothing short of radical structural changes will do — and this means freeing the country from the deadly grip of feudal politicians, the Army and the mullahs.

Yet, doomsday scenarios are flawed. Pakistan is a country with a history of crises and Benazir’s assassination is just one more episode in that violent history. Pakistan, with its own unique sense of “normality,” will plod on.

Devastating fire

 

This refers to the report on the devastating fire in Burrabazar, Kolkata, and the absence of sufficient water to put it out. In Tamil Nadu, especially Chennai, there is an arrangement whereby about half a dozen Metro Water lorries are sent to the spot when a fire is reported. This ensures uninterrupted supply of water to fire tenders. Such an arrangement could be worked out all over India so that fire fighting operations are not hampered.

Loss of life and property is huge in fire accidents. It is time fire reforms were planned and the department modernised. It is essential to constitute a national fire commission to come up with recommendations for the country as a whole. Most fire departments are poorly funded and inadequately equipped. Further, fire prevention and awareness on safety are important. Awareness programmes should be conducted and fire safety taught to children in schools. Provisions contained in the National Building Code are not adhered to while constructing buildings, particularly public buildings and commercial complexes. The sad fact is that many are not even aware of it. It is time to give a statutory backing to it so that there are no violations.

S. Ramani,

Former Director, Fire Service, Tamil Nadu, Chennai

 

* * *

 

The fact that the fire which broke out two days ago is yet to be contained has once again exposed the vulnerability of our city market centres. The mandatory certificate issued by the Fire Service Department is nothing more than a ritual. No one seems to be bothered about the milling crowds on narrow lanes climbing the dark alleys called staircases in ill-planned trade centres. Access to buildings to move fire tenders at short notice, parking area, fire alarms, and adequate personnel to handle emergencies are hardly in place.

Rettavayal S. Krishnaswamy,

“Hungary supports India’s claim for Security Council seat”

 

Amar Kumar Sinha

 

 

 

 

 

---

On the eve of his official visit, Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány spoke to Amar Kumar Sinha, an Indian journalist based in Budapest, exclusively for The Hindu. Mr. Gyurcsány spoke on a wide range of to pics covering Hungarian-Indian relations and international issues. Excerpts from the interview:

---

 

 

 

Ferenc Gyurcsány: “We have to set open our countries’ gates.”

 

In common talk as well as in statements by Hungarian leaders, a lot can be heard about the respect and love India enjoys in Hungary, but in no way do the bilateral economic relations reflect this ‘great warmth.’ How can you contribute to the Hungarian-Indian ties?

 

 

In the past four to five years, our bilateral trade ties have increased three-fold to almost $300 million. This is not a significant sum in India’s foreign trade, but let us not forget that we set off from a very low figure. Obviously many businessmen had to meet one another and many deals had to be concluded to achieve this three-fold growth.

Now, what can we politicians do? We have to make continued efforts to remove political, cultural and other hindrances. We have to set open our countries’ gates. In this matter, I think, we are progressing in the right direction.

Another thing that [the government leaders] can do is to propagate the mutually available trade and investment incentives — to tell businessmen what new possibilities await them in Hungary as well as the scope India offers. My delegation includes representatives of 30 top Hungarian companies, who are interested mainly in machine engineering, the pharmaceutical industry and the energy sector. We have to open ways for cooperation through high-level agreements. For example, an energy industry deal is to be signed between the Hungarian petroleum company MOL and the ONGC.

An agreement is to be signed for setting up a Hungarian-Indian Fund to finance joint research projects. It goes without saying that this marks a huge leap over the days when we could talk only of trade in handicrafts and garments.

During the three days in India, we would be taking off and landing seven times to cover a wide spectrum. Members of our delegation may not be too happy that such a fast tempo is in store for them. A big part of our visit will involve economic cooperation.

Which areas of bilateral relations are you going to focus on during the visit?

 

 

India is highly advanced in information technology and in certain segments, Hungary has immense advantages and huge experience. Achievements of the Hungarian scientists, from John von Neumann to Edward Teller or Erno Rubik, are well-known all over the world. We would like to assist joint projects with the participation of Indian and Hungarian researchers and institutions. Here, we also must help inter-university cooperation, because research activities in Hungary are mostly carried out by institutions such as the Budapest or the Miskolc Technical Universities.

Another significant area could be biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, where Hungary is one of the most significant centres of Europe.

Yet another area of interest is the film industry. India is a world power in film production. We have a huge studio complex built with American cooperation. Indian film art is not so well known here, and if the film-makers could come closer to one another, it would definitely help.

As a respected member of the European Union, how do you view the scope for EU-India cooperation?

 

 

Europe and Asia rival each other in a number of economic and scientific fields, and I have to admit much more dynamism is to be seen in India and Asia than in Europe. Obviously, there are many domains where success can be achieved only through cooperation. These include continued removal of obstacles in international trade and issues that have to be jointly addressed — global climatic changes and reduction of gases causing the glasshouse effect.

How can Hungary contribute to EU-India ties?

 

 

The Indian automobile industry and machine engineering are growing at a very high pace. We would like if Hungary could — at least partially — be the gateway to Europe for this fast developing Indian sector.

How can Hungary be a bridgehead?

 

 

Hungary can provide perhaps the best background with its fast expanding motorways and central location in the Union. It is almost equidistant between the southern part of Europe and Scandinavia. Hungary can offer well-equipped industrial parks at favourable terms to investors. For example, we are already negotiating in this regard with the Indian company Apollo, which is studying the possibility of a greenfield investment in Hungary. It is heartening to note that three Hungarian cities are vying with one another for this investment by offering ever more favourable terms.

What is your stand on India’s claim for a permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council?

 

 

Hungary supports India’s claim to permanent membership within an expanded U.N. Security Council, and I do intend to outline Hungary’s stand on this matter during the visit.

How far are you satisfied with your participation in Afghanistan? Do you plan to expand, reduce or leave untouched the extent of Hungarian participation there?

 

 

We set up a reconstruction group in the Baghlan province to work for two years. We decided last year to extend the mandate of this group for an indefinite period. We have also decided to provide management and supervision to the Kabul international airport from this year. These are the two main fields of our presence in Afghanistan. We also have a preliminary decision to provide combat support in a southern Afghan province. This means we will take on a part of the Dutch contingent’s task.

Finally, your predecessor Péter Medgyessy told this correspondent in an interview in 2003 that in many ways he considered “India as a model for our present age.” Where do you place India?

 

 

India is a modern country. Despite occasional difficulties, it has quite successfully preserved the diverse cultures and it has done so in today’s world, where we notice a strong tendency towards homogenisation. There is political unity in the European Union, within whose framework we want to preserve our national identities, languages, cultures and religions. Side by side, we have to aim at modernisation. The question is how to face this challenge without going backward? India has been successful in this respect too: it has simultaneously preserved the traditions and is on the path of progress. We have to learn a great deal in this respect.

There is a growing concern in Europe on how to handle conflicts emanating from the co-existence of various cultures. The past 10 years show an increase in the number of conflicts resulting from the inadequate handling of cultural, ethnic and religious confrontations. India can show to us in Europe many examples of how these problems can be addressed.

 India and the United Kingdom: partners of choice in higher education

 

Tessa Blackstone

 

 

 

 

 

---

Our future prosperity lies in the development of strong knowledge economies, powered by information technology, innovation and education. To achieve that, we will need to work together, across international borders.

---

 

 

India is the focus of a great deal of attention in the United Kingdom these days. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown is to visit the country in January, while London Mayor Ken Livingstone recently finished a series of meetings in Delhi and Mumbai.

A key theme underpinning both trips is the importance of higher education for the success of both countries. Our future prosperity lies in the development of strong knowledge economies, powered by information technology, innovation and education. To achieve that, we will need to work together, across international borders.

Both teaching and research can be delivered, and consumed, internationally. Globalisation is as big a factor in education as it is in business and finance. This creates new challenges for our higher education institutions: how to work abroad and deliver excellence, and how to work with international partners and retain a unique identity?

Partnership is the answer — at national, institutional and individual levels. That is why our two governments have launched a £23 million initiative to improve educational links between our countries. The aim is to become each other’s partner of choice in education. Known as the U.K.-India Education and Research Initiative, it is funding a wide range of research grants, teaching collaborations and professional skill development partnerships.

The export of knowledge, of course, is not new. Throughout human history, civilisations have learned from each other, fascinated by ideas and innovation. In fact, India has a longer history of higher education than the U.K. Scholars have been beating a path to your door for millennia. Alexander the Great sent envoys to Taxila, the centre of Vedic and Buddhist learning on the trade route between Kashmir and Central Asia, in fourth century BC. They spoke of a university greater than any they had seen in Greece. The famous Chinese diarist Xuanzang wrote in 636 AD that over 10,000 monks lived and studied at Nalanda in Bihar, said to be the world’s first residential university. Scholars from Korea, Japan, Tibet, Indonesia, Persia and Turkey also studied there, learning science, astronomy, medicine, logic, metaphysics, philosophy and religion.

Rapid development

 

 

The U.K. is a relative latecomer! Oxford and Cambridge, our first universities, only got going in the 12th and 13th centuries. British universities have developed rapidly in the last 150 years and, particularly since World War II, have welcomed a growing number of students from India. I am delighted to say that the University of Greenwich is a popular choice: we are a top recruiter of Indian students in the U.K. I recently visited Delhi to join graduates and their families in order to celebrate their academic achievements and to develop alumni groups, which will cement relations for many years to come.

Our two countries have good reasons to choose each other as partners. Language is one reason but English speakers have many options: the United States has always been a major player but today Australia and New Zealand are investing heavily to attract overseas students, particularly from the Far East and South East Asia. Other European countries are targeting those students too — by delivering courses in English. English language teaching is on offer in universities in Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands.

Despite this, the number of Indian students choosing the U.K. continues to grow, with 19,000 coming this year. They are attracted by the country’s unique combination of shared history, high academic standards and its safe, open, multi-cultural society. An Indian student said to me the other day, “I love being here: it is like meeting the world in one place.” The U.K. is already home to a large Indian-British community.

Now, for the first time, students are moving from the U.K. to India. The numbers are still small — they measure in the hundreds — but they too are growing. As India’s educational capacity develops, it will open its doors to the world. Already, exchanges, work experience placements and visits are increasing. Our young people know that India will be a major force in the future, as its economy blossoms, and they want to be at the heart of this exciting development.

The huge demand for higher education in India has led to a rapid development in private provision. This can be hard to regulate in order to keep standards high. Partnerships with U.K. institutions can help. The U.K. has an international reputation for excellence in higher education, with long experience of developing policy and practice in teaching and research, backed by a national system of quality assurance. Our institutions can share this expertise, working in partnership with colleges and universities.

Practical skills

 

 

We can also work together to tackle another problem: how to equip students with the practical skills needed by employers. Despite economic growth, 30 per cent of graduates in India are unemployed.

One of the reasons that international students choose the U.K. is its track record of running programmes with a large practical component. Courses are developed in consultation with local employers and use a mixture of real case studies, supervised work experience and visiting lecturers and mentors from the profession or area of study. One of the areas of collaboration supported by the U.K.-India Education and Research Initiative is the development of courses with a stronger practical base. Within the next four years, the Initiative expects to fund about 40 such courses, serving 2,000 students. On the research side, there will also be more Indian students completing research degrees in the U.K., and more U.K. researchers undertaking work in India, along with joint research projects.

This is international collaboration at its best: colleagues working together to develop the most relevant courses, the best quality standards and the most useful research. In this way, we can avoid the potential pitfalls of very rapid university expansion: shoddy education, motivated by profit, in an unregulated marketplace. Together, Britain and India can call on the best minds, organisations and facilities, to build prosperity for both our countries. Partners of choice in higher education: that is our ace card in the game of global success.

(Baroness Blackstone was Arts Minister, 2001-03, and Minister of State for Education and Employment, 1997-2001, in the U.K. government. In 1987, she was awarded a life peerage, and in 2001 she was appointed to the Privy Council. )

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Printer friendly page  
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

---

 Pakistan army: declining credibility

 

Andy McCord

 

 

 

 

 

---

In the coming days and months, the Pakistan army’s role in the deterioration of the state will come under more and more scrutiny. Few will be able to repeat the canard one used to hear from outsiders that the army was the “only load-bearing institution” in the country.

---

 

 

In 1970, a cyclone and an accompanying tidal surge out of the Bay of Bengal hit the district of Bhola in what then was East Pakistan. The inaction and indifference of the Pakistan government and army in the aftermath of this disaster are often cited as a principal reason why East Pakistan’s last nerve frayed, and it turned overwhelmingly in favour of the movement that would in 1971 lead to Pakistan’s break-up and the independence of Bangladesh.

Now, in the wake of a relentless series of mostly man-made disasters, there is fear that the four provinces of Pakistan’s former west wing may also break up, leaving large parts of the country ripe for takeover by armed internationalist Islamist puritans. A respected friend wrote to me recently that his devastation on the assassination of Benazir Bhutto was “not because of anything else but the fact that she symbolised the Federation.” But in the response to another natural disaster — the 2005 earthquake that flattened Balakot, Muzaffarabad and other places along the ceasefire line, which separates parts of Kashmir that are held by Pakistan from those held by India — there is a sign of a force that can hold Pakistan together: its people.

Last February, I visited Lahore after a long absence and spent much of my time driving to meet old friends and contacts with Riaz Shah, a driver I had employed while spending a Fulbright year there some 10 years earlier. One day, as we were passing a truck depot, Riaz said, “You should have seen this place. Truck after truck after truck was being loaded, and everyone was headed for the earthquake area. It went on for days and days.”

I had thought most of the spontaneous public response to that disaster had been among the rich. The volunteers would have to afford taking time off and have their own sturdy cars. They would have been part of the elite that has more recently been organising “civil society” for small scale demonstrations in support of Pakistan’s ousted judges and of restoration of the “rule of law.” Riaz’s excitement with his story was infectious, and as we looked out on the depot full of lavishly decorated trucks and the rough and ready drivers who command them, another image was conjured up in my mind of independent action for good on the part of common citizens — the same working people who have been underrepresented in the movement against President Pervez Musharraf, the retired General who last March ousted his country’s Supreme Court and who claims to have the people on his side, except for a few members of the elite.

In the immediate aftermath of the earthquake in 2005, the army was preoccupied with restoring its defences along the always tense de facto border with India and with digging out its own soldiers: a friend of mine, who was educated among future army officers, told me that the talk among his classmates was that as many as 30,000 Pakistani soldiers died in the pre-dawn quake, when the timbers lining their underground bunkers caved in. General Musharraf himself was slow to respond, and while his army, after the initial delay, was active in helping tens of thousands survive a mountain winter in tents, it may have lost some of its institutional credibility as the best hope for Pakistanis in a crisis.

Whether or not the earthquake contributed to it, there is no doubt that the army’s reputation is declining. A September poll by the International Republican Institute found that the army’s favourable ratings had dropped 10 per cent to 70 per cent, behind both the media and the legal profession (both of which have been activist in response to increasing assertions of authority by General Musharraf). The army’s reputation cannot be helped by Pakistan’s deteriorating security situation or its association with the increasingly unpopular retired General.

There is also a growing awareness that as an institution with a finger in a bewildering array of economic pies — from corn flakes to road-building — the army may be biting off so much that there is not enough left for the rest of society, with an expanding population and rising expectations. A ground-breaking new book by a former bureaucrat named Ayesha Siddiqa has begun the process of tallying up just how much economic space the armed forces and connected institutions are taking up — as much as 10 per cent of the GDP, and this is without counting the agricultural, industrial and urban land given out to retired generals and the like. Ms Siddiqa has given a name to this phenomenon: “Military, Inc.”

In the coming days and months, the army’s role in the deterioration of the Pakistani state will come under more and more scrutiny. Few will be able to repeat the canard one used to hear from outsiders that the Pakistani army was the “only load-bearing institution” in the country. An outright revolt against it is a terrifying prospect, given the rise of jihadis within Pakistan and in Afghanistan, as well as the likelihood that the army would lash out chaotically if it were to feel that its cosy position was drastically threatened.

But little by little — like the trucks leaving one by one from Lahore — the rise of public opinion could convince the generals that they must give room to the rest of society if Pakistan is to survive as a 21st century nation. The mobilisation of “people power” is a tricky business, and even more so is the transformation of the instinct for democracy into a working system of government. But sometimes it does happen, as it has seemed to in Nepal since 2006.

One shouldn’t discount the resilience, intelligence or willpower of Pakistanis of lower estate and lower wattage glamour than the elite. When I travelled between Lahore, Peshawar, Islamabad and Karachi last February, I was struck by the active discussion going on in every place I visited, amongst the rich and middle and poor alike. Questions were being asked and wide-ranging answers were being proposed on everything from how is it that any person could become a suicide bomber to the rise of China and India in the international economy. There was a verbal vitality in the air that I had not felt in Pakistan since 1988 in the aftermath of the assassination of the unretired General-President Zia-ul Haq and during the exhilarating first campaign of Benazir Bhutto.

‘People living by wits’

 

 

The well-known and accomplished lawyer, Asma Jahangir, is wont to object when it is proposed that the average Pakistani has no strength left to assert himself or herself. After half a lifetime of, case by case, representing people from the entire range of Pakistani society, she may have a better finger on a more representative pulse than anyone in or out of Pakistan.

What she says is that the Pakistani people have incredible strength. They have survived, and, in the local and personal scale of life as we all live it individually, in many cases thrived, despite a system that is utterly unconcerned with their welfare and in many ways dependant on the siphoning off of their wealth. They are not going anywhere. As Ms Jahangir says, “They are living by their wits.” Good wits.

(Andy McCord, a freelance writer, is a fluent Urdu/Hindi speaker who has lived and worked in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. He is currently working on a biography of Faiz Ahmed Faiz.)

 End to an insensate sport

 

Some of the most mindless things in the world are done in the name of honour and valour, and jallikattu, the traditional taming-of-the-bull ritual that coincides with the harvest festival of Pongal in Tamil Nadu, is certainly one of them. Animal rights activists are not the only people to be agitated about jallikattu, in which the bull is subjected to horrifying forms of cruelty before and during the taming contest. What is a matter of even greater concern about an event wherein hundreds of youths try to hold onto the horns or the hump or the tail of a rampaging bull in an open arena is that it claims the lives of many among the contenders and spectators, who are either gored to death or killed in a stampede. By refusing to vacate the stay on this gory ritual that goes in the name of sport, the Supreme Court has in effect ruled in favour of the poor, uneducated youths who risk their lives in the hope of being hailed as heroes. For some petty cash and short-lived fame, they make a spectacle of themselves. Not only the participating youths, sometimes the spectators too are among the jallikattu-induced casualties as the animal is not known to respect the man-made barriers separating the two sections. Although jallikattu in some areas such as Alanganallur has, over the years, become an international tourist attraction due to the State government’s promotional effort, very little is being done to make the ritual safer for the animal, the participants, and the spectators.

Supporters of jallikattu have pointed to its roots in traditional belief systems and customs. Villagers are said to regard a failure to hold the event a bad omen. But traditions that militate against reason and concern for human lives have no place in a civilised society. The Supreme Court ban is restricted to jallikattu, and does not apply to other traditional sporting contests of Pongal involving the bull, such as the bullock cart race and bullock race. Only the confrontationist element that courts danger to life in the festival, not any competitive element, has been curbed by the court. In any case, jallikattu in its present form is of recent origin. The contest, which when originally conceived was between one man and one bull, has over decades turned into an unruly and dangerous sport, the massive and unregulated participation rendering it almost impossible for the event to be made accident-free. Instead of contesting the ban, the State government must help create a greater awareness about the dangers of this sport. Surely, there are any number of competitive sports and activities — other than the insensate and life-threatening contest with a bull — available for the rural youth to keep the festive spirit alive.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Printer friendly page  

No case for tax cuts

 

According to the latest government data, during the first nine months of 2007-08 there has been a phenomenal 50 per cent growth in the collections of personal income tax and 39.84 per cent in corporate tax collections. Together these two direct taxes are expected to cross Rs.3,00,000 crore, comfortably exceeding the budgetary target of Rs.2,67,400 crore. Direct taxes will surpass indirect taxes in their contribution to the exchequer. That again is a welcome development bringing India on a par with mature economies. A graded personal income tax of the type that exists in India and many other countries is based on the salutary principle of ability to pay. The record tax collections are no doubt a beneficial consequence of the high economic growth seen recently. The GDP growth rate is once again expected to top 9 per cent this year and, if the Planning Commission’s estimates hold good, that level will be sustained over the Eleventh Plan. However, among indirect taxes, the growth in excise duties has not been commensurate with economic growth. Customs and service tax collections are expected to make up for the shortfall. Finance Minister P. Chidambaram has claimed that the tax-GDP ratio target of 11.8 per cent, set in the budget, will be achieved. Promising a more tax-friendly environment in the income tax department, he has stressed voluntary compliance on the part of tax payers as the optimal way to maximise tax collections.

While the fiscal situation is comfortable, there is no case at all for reducing the income tax rates, a clamour that will become strident on the eve of the budget. The marginal tax rates in India compare favourably with those obtaining in many developed countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. It would also be facile to assume that the tax-GDP ratio can always be maintained at the current level. There is obviously a case for widening the tax net, which despite some improvement, is still abysmally narrow. Agriculture, which accounts for 19 per cent of the GDP, is not taxed at all. The number of income tax payers continues to be small, with a majority claiming incomes of Rs.2 lakh and less. An even more ridiculously smaller number report incomes of Rs.10 lakh and more. At this juncture, the overriding concern of the Finance Minister should be to ensure that money is found for the massive outlays needed for the social sectors, education, healthcare, and agriculture. These sectors have been earmarked almost 75 per cent of the total expenditure envisaged in the Eleventh Plan, compared to 55 per cent in the Tenth Plan.

A great life

 

“It seemed difficult at first to grasp that we’d really got there,” wrote Sir Edmund Hillary of that morning when he became the first man to stand on the highest point on our planet. This man of courage and compassion will always be remembered, along with Tenzing Norgay, for the moment on May 29, 1953 when humans first stood on the summit of Mount Everest. His more abiding legacy is a life that teaches us that the impossible is achievable. Sir Edmund, who insisted on being addressed as plain-and-simple ‘Ed’, was an improbable candidate for greatness. Born in 1919 in the family of an Auckland journalist-turned-beekeeper, he dropped out of university to help his father’s business. He was invalided out of the New Zealand Air Force, which he served during World War II as a navigator, with severe burn injuries. Undaunted, he soon built a formidable reputation as a mountaineer, breaking into a climbing world dominated by a closed circle of public school-educated elites by scaling 11 Himalayan peaks of over 6,000 metres. Success did not breed arrogance. At a time when hierarchies of race and class defined the relationship between sahib and sherpa — few mountaineering accounts even bothered to name the Nepali porters who were critical to their success — Sir Edmund saw fellow climbers as equals. “I held out my hand,” he recorded famously of the moment he stood at the summit of Everest with Tenzing, “and in silence we shook in good Anglo-Saxon fashion. But this was not enough for Tenzing, and impulsively he threw his arm around my shoulders and we thumped each other on the back in mutual congratulations.” Until his comrade’s death in 1986, Sir Edmund refused to settle the debate on who first set foot on the summit of Everest.

His life as an explorer did not of course end with his Everest triumph. He participated in expeditions to Antarctica, the South Pole, and the sources of the Yangtse and Ganga — and even in a search for the fabled Yeti. In the 1980s, he served as New Zealand’s High Commissioner in India, an assignment he was to describe as the only “nine to five job” he did in his life. Sir Edmund was not seduced by the prospect of personal profit and used his fame to raise funds for a welter of education, health, sanitation, and environmental projects that have improved the lives of the desperately poor mountain communities who inhabit the Solu-Khumbu region of Nepal. His commitment to humanitarian work, shared by his first wife, Louise, did not flag even after her tragic death, along with their youngest daughter, Belinda, in a 1975 air crash at Kathmandu. Nor did his knowledge of the great risks of mountaineering lead him to discourage his son, Peter, from making a successful 1990 attempt to summit Everest. “In climbing, as in many other aspects of life,” wrote the historian of Everest, Walt Unsworth, “the risks are weighed against the goal.” Sir Edmund dared to live an exceptional life — and triumphed.

 India-Malaysia ties in perspective

 

Bilateral relations between India and Malaysia have flourished over the years, with quiet, constructive diplomacy dissolving misunderstandings and allaying misapprehensions on either side. Even when the recent controversy over the treatment of ethnic Indians in Malaysia threatened to sour relations, both governments acted swiftly to calm things down. Malaysia woke up to Indian sensibilities on the issue, and India took care to avoid any chauvinistic overstatement of ethnic affinity with Malaysian citizens of Indian origin. With misinformed reports about Malaysia ‘suspending’ the intake of workers from India making the headlines in a section of the Indian media, bilateral relations were again on test. There are approximately 150,000 Indian citizens working in Malaysia, and reports of Kuala Lumpur slashing the period of renewal for work visas naturally raised concern in India. The Malaysian government did well to spot the potential of these reports to harm relations and Home Minister Mohd Radzi Sheikh Ahmad sought to “clear the air” by denying that there was any move to freeze the intake of Indian workers or to cut down the renewal period of work visas for temple priests from India. Although Malaysia would not admit that work visas for temple priests are being treated differently from those for other categories of workers, Mr. Radzi indicated the government’s preference for Malaysian Hindus in any recruitment of temple priests. But if norms for work visas are being revised uniformly, India can have no real cause for complaint.

A more “orderly” system of issuing work visas, as proposed by the Malaysian government, could actually help workers from India, many of whom are lured on the strength of dubious promises by employment agents in India. Potential employers in Malaysia would now have to obtain a go-ahead certificate from the Ministry of Human Resource before recruiting workers from other countries. Hopefully, this should help prevent Indian workers from becoming victims of exploitative work arrangements. The Indian government was quite judicious in not rushing to react to the alarmist media reports but choosing to wait for the true picture to emerge before giving its response. There is a great future for Malaysia-India bilateral relations. A diplomatic row over a wrongly construed issue is the last thing the two countries need.

 Will Spain go through second transition?

 

Vaiju Naravane

 

 

 

Prime Minister Zapatero has pushed through his reform agenda because Spain has been riding a wave of unprecedented growth. But as the first signs of an economic slowdown appear on the horizon, the battle ahead does not look as easy.

 

 

 

 

 

It was the biggest political upset Spain had witnessed since the death of General Francisco Franco in 1975. When the boyish 42-year-old socialist, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, emerged the surprise winner in Spain’s 2004 general election in the aftermath of the March 11 Madrid bombings, critics dubbed him “Bambi” and “Babyface” predicting an era of “soft and shaky appeasement politics.” His supporters called him “el hombre tranquillo,” a man of Olympian calm who, they said, would govern not by confrontation as outgoing Conservative leader Jose Maria Aznar had done but by consensus quietly and without fuss.

Both predictions turned out to be incorrect. For while Prime Minister Zapatero has governed by what he himself describes as “buen talante,” a phrase that roughly translates as niceness or good humour, he has relentlessly pushed an agenda that has moved Spain decisively to the Left, bringing home the troops from Iraq, reducing the power of the Catholic Church, liberalising divorce laws and legislating in favour of women and homosexuals. He has also dared to re-examine Spain’s past under the Franco dictatorship, a deeply divisive subject, considered taboo these past 25 years and in doing so, he has polarised Spanish society. His youthful good looks and quiet charm hide a steely determination and the changes he has brought in have earned Mr. Zapatero the abiding ire of the Catholic Church, fanned the embers of revisionism and pro-Franco sentiment, and given fresh momentum to the country’s ultra-conservative right.

Two months before the general election, Spain’s deeply conservative Catholic Church and the right-wing Popular Party (Partido Popolar or PP) are hitting back with a vengeance. A mass rally held in Madrid over the New Year in “defence of the family” was attended by an estimated 160,000 people. Organised by the Catholic Church with the backing of the PP, the rally was attended by 50 cardinals, bishops and religious leaders with Pope Benedict XVI making an appearance by video link. Several prelates launched scathing attacks against legislation permitting gay marriages, new fast-track divorce laws and the introduction of a civics course in schools instead of compulsory catechism.

Cardinal Antonio Canizares of Toledo told the gathering that the government was “shaking the foundations of the family with its wicked and unjust laws.” Cardinal Agustin Garcia-Gasco of Valencia told the rally: “The culture of radical secularism is a fraud which only leads to abortions and fast-track divorces,” adding that “radical secularism” could dissolve democracy. The Archbishop of Madrid said the new laws violated the United Nations Human Rights charter.

Mr. Zapatero was quick to hit back, reminding his critics in no uncertain terms that the government’s policies were supported by “the immense majority.” “Everyone has the right to have rights, whatever their beliefs may be and whether they belong to a religion or not,” he said.

The Prime Minister has been able to push through his reform agenda because Spain has been riding a wave of unprecedented growth for the past decade. But now as the first signs of an economic slowdown appear on the horizon, the battle ahead might not be as easy. The country’s construction bubble is predicted to burst and as inflation and unemployment simultaneously rise, Prime Minister Zapatero finds himself on the defensive. His Socialist Party (PSOE) and the PP are running neck and neck in the polls. He could discover to his chagrin that Spaniards are willing to place economic questions before those of equality and social justice or righting the wrongs of history.

Mr. Zapatero exudes a confidence he might not entirely feel. Inflation went up much faster in December 2007 than in the preceding decade while the number of jobless workers rose for the third consecutive month, touching 5.2 per cent in 2007. The annual inflation rate, led by higher food and energy costs, meanwhile hit 4.3 per cent in December, its highest yearly reading since 1997.

That the Socialists are beginning to get nervous about their electoral chances is evident from the fact that Mr. Zapatero decided to shelve plans to modify Spain’s restrictive abortion law which allows termination of pregnancy only under very specific conditions. The law could undergo changes during his second term if he wins a convincing victory.

His critics say the Prime Minister’s niceness — he has managed to govern with a remarkable lightness of touch at the head of a minority government with external support from two small left-wing parties — masks a serious lack of vision or strategic thinking. But even his most corrosive detractors say he has tackled fundamental societal issues and changed the mindset in Spain setting the country on a path of rapid modernisation.

Mr. Zapatero’s agenda has been called the Second Transition — and it is an attempt to re-examine the across-the-board compromises that made possible Spain’s 1970s move from a dictatorship to democracy. Issues ranging from the structure of the state to social reform, modernisation, devolution of powers and the commemoration of the past that had been placed on the backburner are being examined, some for the very first time.

Mr. Zapatero himself tends to eschew ideological rhetoric, preferring to present himself as a manager and moderniser. “The programme of the modern Left is about sound economic management with a surplus on the public accounts, moderate taxes and a limited public sector … together with an extension of civil and social rights. That is the programme of the future,” he said. Not for him radical left-wing reform such as the introduction of a 35-hour-work week or clipping the wings of industry. He is content to allow market forces to manage the economy but feels it is imperative that a degree of equality be injected through legislation which he describes as “citizen socialism.”

Under Mr. Zapatero, ultra-conservative Spain, once considered the most restrictive and reactionary country in Europe, is now amongst its most liberal. Openly flouting the Church, Spain has allowed gay marriages, eliminating all legal distinctions between same-sex and heterosexual unions, and liberalised divorce laws. Women now hold half of all Cabinet posts including the job of Vice Prime Minister and enjoy legal protection from domestic violence. Compulsory religious education in state-run schools has been scrapped and in a final coup de grace, a legislative package pushed through that condemns Franco’s dictatorship, raising the hackles of the Catholic Church.

Slim lead

 

 

Although polls show that the Socialists have a slim lead over the Popular Party, they also indicate that Spaniards are evenly split on the question of which party is better equipped to handle the economy. The Socialists remain upbeat about the state of the Spanish economy, predicting it will still grow next year at a faster rate than the European Union average. “We can face with optimism the future of the Spanish economy, which is not at all in a phantasmagoric crisis as announced by the bad omens and prophets of doom of the Popular Party,” said the Socialist parliamentary spokesman, Diego Lopez Garrido.

Mr. Zapatero has promised to create up to two million new jobs if re-elected in March and predicted Spain’s public surplus would represent 1.8 per cent of gross domestic product in 2007, the same level as in the previous year. Spain is only one of a handful of EU nations to post a public surplus. The government argues that its existence has allowed it to expand spending on social benefits such as rent subsidies for youths and higher old-age pensions.

But the opposition was relentless in its attacks. “The economic crisis has broken out,” crowed the right-wing daily ABC on its front page, while opposition PP leader Mariano Rajoy vowed to quickly unveil a package of economic reforms aimed at “reviving the economy” if elected on March 9.

Two months ahead of the general elections, the PSOE defended its policies and vowed not to “take any step backwards” in defending individual freedoms. The Socialist government argues that the promotion of secular values is key to the modernisation of Spain, which has undergone a liberal transformation in the three decades since the death of right-wing dictator General Franco.

For the moment at least, the Socialist Party appears safe and likely to win a second term. But even if it fails to win, it is unlikely the conservatives will roll back the reforms it has introduced. Two-thirds of the Spanish population supports same sex marriages and an overwhelming majority feels it is now time to debunk the past, untangle the church from the state and move into the 21st century through greater devolution of powers and autonomy bordering on federalism.

Mr. Zapatero himself argues that “Spain is a country that cannot be understood through old paradigms or governed by the traditional routine” and that future strength will emerge from a decentralised and flexible, not rigid and centralised, state. Whether he wins or loses, the Spanish Socialist Party under his leadership has shown that it is possible to have responsible and innovative responses to the challenges raised by globalisation, bucking the trend within Europe to look inwards.

 Looking to the future

 

Pallavi Aiyar

 

 

 

The China visit will offer Prime Minister Manmohan Singh a unique opportunity to interact with the next generation leadership of the Chinese Communist Party.

 

 

 

 

 

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s three-day visit to Beijing will be his first official trip across the Great Wall. Nonetheless, he is well acquainted with China’s top-level leadership duo of President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao. Not only has Dr. Singh received them in New Delhi, they have also had occasion to interact over the years on the sidelines of multilateral fora across the world.

The unique opportunity that this trip will offer Dr. Singh is thus not his interactions with Mr. Hu and Mr. Wen, but the chance to meet for the first time with the recently appointed next generation leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

The new faces that will lead China into the future were revealed last October at the end of the CCP’s 17th Party Congress. When the party holds its next Congress in 2012, President Hu and Premier Wen will step down to make way for a younger crop of leaders. It is the hands of these rising stars of Chinese politics that will thus shape the long-term contours of the cross-Himalayan engagement.

The two main contenders for the top jobs in 2012 are the former party secretary of Shanghai, Xi Jinping, and the former party secretary of the northeastern province of Liaoning, Li Keqiang, both of whom were elevated to the CCP’s exclusive nine-man Polit Bureau Standing Committee.

Mr. Xi, a party “princeling,” the son of a former Vice Premier, has spent most of his career in the booming coastal provinces of China’s east. In contrast, Mr. Li is the son of a low-ranked rural official. He spent much of his career away from the prosperous seaboard, in the less developed regions of China and worked his way up the party’s ranks, through the Communist Youth League, also the power-base of Mr. Hu.

What the two candidates have in common is their age — both are in their early 50s — and the fact that unlike virtually all previous Party leaders neither are engineers. Mr. Xi has a doctorate in law (although his early training was in chemical engineering), while Mr. Li holds one in economics.

Along with other recently appointed Polit Bureau members such as the former Commerce Minister, Bo Xilai, a journalism graduate, and the former party secretary of Jiangsu province, Li Yuanchao, a PhD in law, they are emblematic of a new breed of Chinese leaders. These men are likely to be somewhat less focussed on the process of economic construction and more so on political management.

Thus, over a period of time, analysts predict that the style, priorities and methods of governance in China will shift accordingly.

Born after the communist accession of 1949, the majority of these men received their university educations after Deng Xiaoping initiated the economic reforms of the late 1970s. Many are fluent English speakers, who feel more comfortable in an international setting than their predecessors. Most have demonstrated themselves to be business-friendly, playing key roles in attracting foreign investment and reconstructing the economies of the provinces they have spent their careers in.

Proven performers

 

 

Under Mr. Li Keqiang for example, the rust-belt reputation of the Liaoning province underwent a major makeover with firms such as Intel and BMW taking the place of crumbling state-owned enterprises. Shanghai continued its spectacular rise into the elite club of the world’s top financial and business capitals under Mr. Xi, while Mr. Li Yuanchao is known for having attracted record amounts of FDI to Jiangsu while running the province.

While little is known about the next generation leadership’s stance on foreign relations, it is likely that given their age their attitudes on Sino-Indian ties will be less burdened by the weight of the 1962 war. They would also probably place more emphasis on cross-border economic ties, pushing for arrangements such as the Regional Trade Agreement currently under consideration.

For the moment, Mr. Xi is believed to have an edge over Mr. Li Keqiang in their bid for the post of Chinese President and party general secretary, although the succession is by no means a fait accompli. Over the next five years, both must walk a delicate line between carving out a reputation for themselves and avoiding upstaging their powerful seniors or straying too far from the Party line.

These future leaders are thus loathe to push themselves forward too obviously, too soon, and it is uncertain what kind of openings Dr. Singh will have for interacting with them. However, from the standpoint of understanding not only how the governance dynamics of China are likely to evolve but also what India’s future strategy towards its northern neighbour should be, it is important for the Prime Minister to become familiar with them. It is, after all, these men who will soon be leading the increasingly intricate tango of Sino-Indian ties, and India needs to take measure of their rhythm to match their steps with corresponding skill.

 Astronomers map dark matter

 

Alok Jha

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Astronomers have created the most detailed map yet of the mysterious dark matter that fills much of the space between galaxies.

Dark matter accounts for almost all the mass of the universe, but because it does not emit or reflect radiation, it is impossible to observe directly. However, because it has mass, scientists can infer its presence by its gravitational effects on the normal matter surrounding it.

Meghan Gray, of the University of Nottingham, U.K., and Catherine Heymans, of the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, led a team who stitched together 80 images made by the Hubble space telescope in 2006 of the Abell 901 and 902 supercluster of galaxies, which is 2.6 billion light years from the earth.

 

The map, unveiled on Thursday at the American Astronomical Society’s annual meeting in Texas, is 2.5 times sharper than a previous survey of the cluster performed by ground-based instruments.

 Tata’a ace

 

This refers to the editorial “Ratan Tata’s ace” (Jan. 11). The unveiling of Tata Nano marks a milestone in the history of Indian technology. It has put even global automobile giants on the back foot. What is most fascinating about the Rs.1-lakh car is that it instils in us a sense of identification and pride, while making business sense in every aspect. All talk of traffic congestion, pollution, etc., is meaningless. Such criticism can be made to stall any industrial development. It will be interesting to see how the price war will be fought on Indian roads as a result of Tata Nano’s launch.

N.K. Sinha,

Chennai

Three cheers to Mr. Tata for delivering on his promise of providing a car for the common man. Anyone can build an extravagant car but manufacturing a low-cost car — and that too the world’s cheapest — is indeed a feat. Tata Nano promises to be fuel-efficient. As for speed, who is bothered? Even a Ferrari has to trail an autorickshaw in cities.

On the flip side, the common man would prefer public transport any day to save on maintenance cost, congestion and traffic chaos. Road rage is also on the rise with bad, dilapidated roads. Our cities simply cannot handle more four-wheelers.

K. Chidanand Kumar,

Bangalore

Tata Nano will pose a stiff competition to two-wheeler manufacturers, particularly the segment in which the price is more or less the same. With the launch of the car, the target market for two-wheelers and four-wheelers has become the same. The price war is bound to increase. One hopes the customer will benefit the most.

T.T.V. Raman,

Tirupati

It will be interesting to see how Korean and Japanese car manufacturers meet the challenge posed by the world’s cheapest car. The beneficiary of the automobile war that is expected to follow will be the consumer.

Kavin Kumar Jain,

Bangalore

For middle class families, it has been a dream to drive around in its own car. Tata Nano comes as a pleasant surprise. I think the people have already started saving to buy the car.

J. Aravindhan,

Coimbatore

The editorial rightly points out that instead of denying the vehicle to the middle classes, the focus should be on improving the public transportation network and expanding the infrastructure. When it comes to safety, a four-wheeler is always a better option. I am sure the Nano’s entry is going to change the way India travels.

B.V. Siva Prasad,

Gunadala

No doubt the launch of the lowest-priced car is a major contribution to the automobile industry in India and abroad. It is expected to help many from the middle class to live their dreams. But it cannot be denied that it will add to traffic congestion in more ways than one. It is highly unlikely that the government will swing into action just because a major section of society can afford a car now.

Arun Dash,

Hyderabad

Tata Nano looks affordable, attractive and extremely functional even on its own, not necessarily as an alternative to the ever popular two-wheeler. With petrol prices going over the roof, quite a few of us own a two-wheeler and a car. Nano will definitely have many buyers. Big car-owners may opt for it as a second car.

Col. C.V. Venugopalan (retd.),

Palakkad

The production of a small car at an affordable price of Rs.1 lakh is an enormous engineering feat. The engineers at Tata Motors and the force behind the mission — Ratan Tata — deserve to be complimented for this socially relevant work. Who would not like to travel in the safety and comfort of a car that is available at the cost of premier segment risky bikes?

Air Cmde Raghubir Singh (retd.),

Pune

Mr. Tata has silenced the doubting Thomases by unveiling a sleek and appealing car — a gift to the ordinary people of the nation. The launch of the small car may bring down the prices of other small cars in the market. Questions such as how long the company will continue to supply the car at Rs.1 lakh and how the authorities propose to cope with the spurt in traffic should be addressed if we are to enjoy the benefits of the revolutionary move by Tata Motors.

N.K. Vijayan,

Kizhakkambalam

The launch of Tata Nano has spread a few myths: it is an alternative to two-wheelers; it will cause lesser pollution; it is the people’s car; and it is safer than two-wheelers. The reality is: two-wheelers are easier to handle; a two-wheeler user can reach the destination faster in the city; parking and moving are easier; a two-wheeler burns only 100 or 200 cc of oxygen but even a small car burns 625 cc of oxygen and, with traffic snarls, the gross emission will be much higher; more cars will make city traffic a nightmare; and a light car is never safe in a highway or high-speed accident.

S. Subramaniam Balaji,

Chennai

Mr. Tata deserves to be applauded for rolling out the world’s cheapest car. But calling it the people’s car smacks of derision for the aam admi, who is nowhere near the idea of owning a car.

Syed Sultan Mohiddin,

Kadapa

 Ratan Tata’s ace

 

Few products designed and made in India have been awaited as eagerly and with as much apprehension in some quarters of the auto industry and outside as the new, small car from Tata Motors that was unveiled on January 10, 2008. Explaining the sense of anticipation is child’s play, as a cartoon in this newspaper implied. A car for Rs.100,000 was the dream of four years for one man, Tata Motors Chairman Ratan Tata, who saw the peril in whole families riding on a two-whe eler and the need to offer them a car that would be much safer for travel, yet affordable. It was as much a dream for many of the seven million Indians who buy themselves a two-wheeler each year only because they cannot afford to pay a couple of lakh rupees for the cheapest four-wheeler in the market. Perhaps it was the slogan coined by management guru C.K. Prahalad about finding fortune at the bottom of the pyramid that pumped up the businessman and social entrepreneur in Mr. Tata and spawned similar low-cost products, notably Tata Ace and Ginger Hotels. Between the dream and reality was the challenge of putting on sale a car for a price no manufacturer in India or abroad was willing to countenance. So the visionary Mr. Tata and his flagship company, Tata Motors, deserve great credit for accomplishing what most people considered utopian, and reinforcing the point global automobile majors are now acknowledging: India is a natural home for “frugal engineering.” Inside the little Nano are some 20 innovations, for which patent applications have been made, and the genius of many engineers at Tata Motors and its suppliers. Mr. Tata may not have delivered precisely on the expected price but the Rs.127,000-130,000 tag (inclusive of taxes) is just 65 per cent of its nearest competitor, Maruti Suzuki’s venerable M 800.

Less edifying was the breathless chatter, in the run-up to the launch, of those appalled at the thought of the congestion such a cheap car would bring on the city roads and the pollution it would contribute. Even less informed were questions whether the car would be safe. Mr. Tata’s repartee was: would a person be safer on a two-wheeler than in a car with steel enclosures? It takes no deep study to predict that the demand for a reliable, fuel-efficient, cheap car will be huge, the numbers likely to be limited only by the ability of the manufacturer to produce it. Surely the just response to an imminent increase in the population of cars cannot be to deny the middle classes their vehicle while giving gas-guzzling behemoths the freedom of the roads. Rather the answer must be improving the public transportation network and expanding the infrastructure so that it accommodates many more vehicles, with tighter emission standards, without snapping into gridlocks. On launch day, it was evident that those murmurs of doubt and jealousy were drowned in the spontaneous applause for Ratan Tata’s small, cheap car. What remains to be seen is how long the company can produce it at this tantalising price.

 

 

 

9th Auto Expo New Delhi 2008

 Prison system and reform

 

The riot in Jalandhar central jail, in which about 1,500 prisoners went on the rampage in protest against the intolerable behaviour of jail authorities, draws painful attention to the uncivilised state of most Indian prisons. The locking of some prisoners in dark cells, the denial of basic facilities, and the forcible shaving of a Sikh prisoner’s hair suggest that for much of the prison establishment, the scope of human rights excludes the jail population. The Jaland har blow-up was not very different from what happened last month in Bihar’s Beur jail; agitated inmates, mainly left-wing extremists, temporarily took control of the prison complex, after staging a protest against alleged maltreatment that drove a fellow prisoner to suicide. In 1983, the All India Committee on Jail Reforms, chaired by Justice A.N. Mulla, spotlighted the “overcrowded prisons…unsatisfactory living conditions, lack of treatment programmes, and allegations of an indifferent and even inhuman approach of prison staff.” Little seems to have changed in 25 years.

The intractable factor that any attempt to improve the system comes up against is overcrowding — a condition that compromises everything, starting with basic hygiene. The Administrative Reforms Commission recently noted that Jharkhand’s jails have 300 per cent more people than the total stipulated capacity; and in Delhi, it is 250 per cent! Aside from immediate steps to reduce overcrowding, any effective reform strategy must include programmes to sensitise jail authorities and transparent mechanisms to bring to book those responsible for the maltreatment of prisoners. While there have been commendable efforts by some individuals — notably by the inspiring Kiran Bedi, who transformed the atmosphere in Delhi’s Tihar jail by introducing vocational education, cultural programmes, counselling sessions, and a system of seeking prisoner feedback — there has been no concerted national or state level policy to improve the prison administration. It is vital to look at such reform through the prism of human rights. A progressive system is one that recognises that prisoners, like other citizens, enjoy basic rights and that the purpose of putting people away is their reform and rehabilitation — not the provision of sadistic pleasure to the jailors.

 An occasion for India to think big

 

M.K. Bhadrakumar

 

 

 

The strategic community in India should rise above getting bogged down in contentious issues on the eve of the Prime Minister’s visit to China.

 

 

 

 

 

For any major international power, developing bilateral relations with China inevitably involves coming to terms with its phenomenal rise. For major regional powers such as Russia, Japan, Vietnam and India, this is particularly acute because the Asian security scenario also happens to be very dynamic.

The discourses in the Indian media, including by some of the prominent figures in the strategic community, over Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s upcoming visit to China unfortunately overlook this aspect. The curtain-raisers have more to say about the Dalai Lama or China’s infrastructure development activities in the Tibet Autonomous Region than about Dr. Singh’s visit providing a rare opportunity for assessing how India must come to terms with its northern neighbour, which is more than half a superpower already.

That is a pity. It is never a good idea to be bogged down in peripherals. Despite the assertion by some of our strategic thinkers, it is hard to agree that Tibet or the Dalai Lama is the sum total of what Sino-Indian relations ought to be. Secondly, we cannot get bogged down in contentious issues when almost the entire Asian region, and indeed much of the global community — be it the United States and Britain, Chile and Brazil, Nigeria and Sudan, or Saudi Arabia and Iran — is busy devising plans for advancing its ties with China, giving them more content and vitality. In diplomacy, stragglers find themselves having to crawl their way back on a pitiless greasy pole.

It is on the score of the emergent Asian security paradigm that Indian thinking must learn a great deal. Our thinkers in the past year focussed a great deal on the ‘potentials’ of a quadripartite alliance involving the United States, Japan, Australia and India. They made assumptions in near-epic proportions of the Sino-Japanese antipathies or the U.S’ so-called ‘containment’ policy toward China or the imperative need for a concert of democracies in Asia. How relevant are these themes today? Already these ideas and assumptions look somewhat vacuous. Unsurprisingly, given the great fluidity of Asian security, it was audacious to be cocksure.

As ‘non-alignment’ has become a dirty word in the idiom of our thinkers — especially since Washington began disparaging the concept — one must be apologetic about saying so, but the inescapable reality seems to be that a need arises for India to creatively transmute the ideology of non-alignment. Its haphazard transition in the tumultuous early 1990s — domestically and internationally — precluded profound thinking, but better late than never. If the quintessence of non-alignment was in distilling our national interests in a difficult world, the need is more than ever before. The signposts of the post-Cold War era already point to the need for endeavouring for this task where, ironically, China has stolen a march on us.

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, flag carrier of the U.S. government in the Cold War era, featured a year-ender on post-Soviet Russia last month. It said, “This was the year Vladimir Putin implicitly compared the U.S. to the Third Reich… And it was the year that — despite the occasional diplomatic language to the contrary — the last remnants of the vaunted strategic partnership between Russia and the West appeared headed for the dustbin of history… 2007 marked a new low in Russia’s post-Soviet relations with the West. And many experts expect things to get even worse.”

The commentary made an extraordinary assessment: “Cold War or not, Russia has certainly been attempting to lay the foundations for an alternative security architecture to compete with the West. In the past year, Moscow has tried to breathe life into security architecture bringing together ex-Soviet states like the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, and sought a closer military alliance with China via the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.”

This is not cavalier opinion-making, but a media organ funded by the U.S. administration has made things clear to a global audience what the limited circle of specialists, politicians and diplomats already knew for some time about how the land lay in Russia-U.S. relations.

Plainly speaking, Russia’s resurgence is beginning to hurt the U.S. global strategies. Its latest move on Iran is virtually playing on the U.S. nerves — a possible readiness to supply medium range S-300 surface-to-air missiles, which together with the short-range Tor-M1 systems supplied earlier, would effectively nullify any residual attempt by Washington to bully Tehran. To quote Russian daily Izvestiya, “Iran will be Moscow’s trump card in its drive against the third stage of U.S. missile defences in Poland and the Czech Republic.” Russia’s “asymmetrical response” drills a hole right through the U.S. Middle East policy. Tor-M1 is equally effective against aircraft, cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, but is a close-battle weapon, the last defence line that engages or eliminates targets that may get through S-300s. That is to say, Tor-M1 plus S-300 would provide for Iran a credible modern multiechelon air defence system covering any key strategic facility.

The inevitability of strategic challenge from a resurgent Russia was foreseen by the Bill Clinton administration. The key interlocutor in Mr. Clinton’s presidential diplomacy with Boris Yeltsin, Strobe Talbott, in his authoritative work, The Russia Hand, makes it abundantly clear that Washington knew Russia would rise like a Phoenix from the ashes. Some day historians would assess whether it was more than a coincidence that the Clinton administration’s U-turn towards India closely followed the first definite signals reaching Washington of Russia’s disenchantment with the West (following Yevgeniy Primakov’s return to the Kremlin in 1995).

Suffice it to say, New Delhi’s equations with Moscow will always remain a crucial factor in Washington’s India policy. What Indian thinkers completely missed out was that for the foreseeable future, Russia, and not China, would remain Washington’s number 1 adversary in the global arena. Our thinkers must think a bit harder why their American interlocutors obfuscated this geopolitical reality.

Post-Soviet Russia still remains the only power that possesses strategic deterrence against the U.S. and frustrates the seven decades-old American dream of attaining nuclear superiority. That is why Washington assiduously works on Beijing for calibrating the highly sensitive triangular equations involving the U.S., China and Russia.

China has utilised the available space to its advantage. Indeed, China has not hidden it is creatively expanding the frontiers of non-alignment. What else is its concept of a “harmonious world” about? The People’s Daily explained recently: “Confucius expounded the philosophical concept of ‘harmony without uniformity’, meaning the world is full of differences and contradictions, but the righteous man should balance them and achieve harmony.” In an important speech at the Party School of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee in June, President Hu Jintao underlined that China should “tightly grasp” and optimally use the important “strategic opportunity period” that is currently available.

Without doubt, Beijing can look back at the past year with satisfaction. On the one hand, Premier Wen Jiabao told the Russian media on the eve of his visit to Moscow in November that Sino-Russian relations were now “both at their best in history and at a most important historical stage” and China looked ahead at the coming decade as “an important historical period” for both the “evolution of the international situation” and the development of China-Russia “strategic cooperative partnership.” On the other hand, a year-ender by the People’s Daily said in 2007 that the China-U.S. relations saw enhanced mutual understanding “on the basis of reaching continuous consensus and the boosting of cooperation of both parties on vital global subjects.” The commentary drew satisfaction that Beijing won “positive appraisal” from Washington for bilateral cooperation on such global issues as the North Korea problem, Sudan, the war on terror, energy security and global warming.

Equally, Indian thinkers, who are so visibly paranoid about the Indian elephant getting “dragooned,” overlook the dramatic shift of templates in China-Japan relations. From Chinese accounts, Japanese Prime Minister’s four-day visit to China on New Year’s Eve was a “rip-roaring success.” Despite the huge backlog of history and a plethora of contemporary issues that seriously complicate their relations, the two countries have sized up the volatile regional and international situation and decided that they must keep up with the times by searching for a “win-win magnanimity” and tenaciously expand the converging point of mutual interests.

There is food for thought for our strategic thinkers in this unfolding Asian drama. Already, within four months of the much-vaunted “Malabar Exercises” in the Bay of Bengal, the entire tantalising architecture of Asian security drawn up by some of our thinkers with such imaginations is threatening to be a mere sand castle that could be easily washed away by the tides of contemporary Asian history. The Prime Minister’s visit to China is an occasion for New Delhi to think big.

 Employment guarantee: beyond propaganda

 

Jean Drèze

 

 

 

The extension of the NREGA to the whole country is an unprecedented opportunity to build the foundations of a social security system in rural India, revive village economies, promote social equity, and empower rural labour.

 

 

 

 

 

Ever since its enactment in mid-2005, the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) has been a target of relentless attacks in the corporate-sponsored media. Numerous business columnists, most of whom have never seen an NREGA worksite (except perhaps from an airplane), have gone out of their way to rubbish this programme. “Expensive gravy train”, “money guzzler”, “costly joke” and “wonky idea” are the colourful terms th ey have used to describe it.

It would be surprising if this had nothing to do with the “subversive” character of the NREGA. Indeed, the Act runs counter to the current reorientation of economic policy and state intervention in favour of corporate interests, misleadingly known as “market-oriented reforms.” As one commentator recently put it, the NREGA is a prime case of “meddling in markets” (Business Standard, March 13, 2007). It is another matter that the state freely “meddles with markets” when it suits business interests, whether it is by forcibly acquiring land on their behalf, or by creating special economic zones, or by defending the so-called “intellectual property rights.” The difference is that the NREGA empowers the working class — there lies the danger.

To avoid misunderstanding, let me clarify that I am not dismissing every critique of the NREGA as an act of propaganda. The Act has some major flaws, and there is much scope for reasoned critiques of it as well as for searching assessments of its implementation on the ground. What is striking, however, is that informed critiques of the Act have been few and far between. Instead, a plethora of shallow arguments have been invoked to deride it.

Outlandish claim

 

 

By way of illustration, prominent media attention was given a few months ago to a so-called “study by the India Development Foundation,” allegedly showing that the NREGA caused inflation. This is an outlandish claim, and I leave it to the reader to guess why this particular item of government expenditure was singled out as being responsible for inflation, as opposed to, say, the defence budget, which is almost 10 times as expensive. Further enquiry revealed that this “study” did not exist; it was just a speculative remark made at a panel discussion by a member of this Foundation. Nevertheless, this hot air was promptly pumped into the propaganda balloon.

To put things in perspective, there has also been much “pro-NREGA” propaganda, mainly from the government. For instance, according to a recent note from the Press Information Bureau (released on December 28, 2007), the NREGA is nothing short of a “tremendous success.” This assertion, not backed by any serious evidence, is typical of the ostrich-like attitude of the Central government to the hurdles that are holding up the implementation of the NREGA. Government propaganda, however, is relatively innocuous since the public knows that official claims have to be taken with a pinch of salt. Corporate propaganda is more subtle, and thus more insidious.

CAG report

 

 

The latest wave of anti-NREGA propaganda in the mainstream media focussed on a draft report of the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG). This report was highlighted in two successive front-page articles published in one of India’s leading dailies, with headlines such as: “It’s Official: In Poorest States, Job Funds Don’t Reach the Poor.” This statement, and variants of it printed in this article and elsewhere, give a very misleading picture of the CAG report. Indeed, the report does not present any evidence of massive leakages in the NREGA, nor was this the objective of the investigation. The main focus of the report is on the conformity of the programme with the provisions of the Act as well as with the operational guidelines. The report points out, quite rightly, that the guidelines are routinely violated. This applies, in particular, to the transparency safeguards, making the programme vulnerable to leakages.

There is an important message here, but it is not the same as to say that NREGA funds “don’t reach the poor.” A large proportion of these funds does reach, and makes a big difference to the lives of, the rural poor. This crucial point should not be lost in the din of arguments for and against the NREGA. Further, recent studies clearly show that it is possible to enforce the transparency safeguards, and that this can go a long way in preventing corruption. This view is fully consistent with the CAG’s analysis.

The key message of the draft CAG report is a constructive one, summed up in the concluding paragraph: “The MoRD needs to ensure that State governments take swift and immediate action to remedy these deficiencies and improve their administrative and technical infrastructure…, so that the forthcoming expansion of NREGA to cover all rural districts in the country can be successfully implemented.” The report presents useful recommendations on how to strengthen the required support structures, relating for instance to staff appointments, record-keeping and financial management.

The Central government would do well to heed this constructive message. The extension of the NREGA to the whole country, just three months from now, is one of the biggest organisational challenges any government has ever faced. It is also an unprecedented opportunity to build the foundations of a social security system in rural India, revive village economies, promote social equity, and empower rural labourers. As things stand, however, this bold initiative looks like a political stunt, shorn of the far-reaching preparations that are required to make it a success. It is in this context that the draft CAG report needs to be treated as a useful wake-up call, rather than as another stick to beat the Act with.

(The author is Visiting Professor at Allahabad University and a member of the Central Employment Guarantee Council

 West’s double standards on Georgian vote

 

Vladimir Radyuhin

 

 

 

Moscow was dismayed to see the West applaud the vote as free and democratic, whereas barely a month ago a Russian poll was slammed for being neither free nor fair.

 

 

 

 

 

The snap presidential poll in Georgia last Sunday would have evoked few thrills in Russia, but there was an overwhelming approval of the outcome in the West despite glaring election violations.

Russia had little to lose or gain in the Georgian vote. President Mikhail Saakashvili, who was officially declared winner on Wednesday with 52 per cent of the votes, and his six rivals are all manifestly pro-Western and anti-Russian. However, Moscow w as dismayed to see the West applaud the vote as free and democratic, whereas barely a month ago it slammed a Russian parliamentary poll as neither free nor fair.

Mr. Saakashvili called the January 5 election following a brutal police crackdown on large-scale opposition protests last November. The hero of the 2003 United States-backed “rose revolution” and the West’s darling, Mr. Saakashvili unleashed riot police on thousands of non-violent protesters calling for his resignation. Hundreds were injured when security forces hit demonstrators with truncheons, rubber bullets, and tear gas. Georgia earned the dubious honour of becoming the first nation in the world to use health-crippling sonic blasters against its own people. Until now, this non-lethal weapon has only been used by U.S. troops in Iraq.

TV station ransacked

 

 

Georgian police ransacked the headquarters of the only opposition TV station, Imedi, smashing computers and equipment. The station was shut down, and shortly after the ban was lifted it went off the air again and stayed closed throughout the election campaign. Journalists refused to work in protest against what they called “pressure and blackmailing from the authorities” and “complete hysteria by the government-controlled TV channels” against Imedi.

By calling a snap election on January 5, Mr. Saakashvili gave the Opposition no time to get its act together and field a united candidate. Ahead of the vote, the government handed out vouchers for utilities and medical supplies as “presents from the President” to millions of Georgian voters in what the Opposition said was an act of outright bribery.

The Opposition accused the government of rigging the vote through vote stuffing, using “indelible ink” that could be easily washed away, getting the same people to vote several times, and forging election protocols. Manipulation of voter lists was especially outrageous. Four years ago, 2.2 million people were registered as being eligible to vote; this time, the list swelled to 3.4 million, whereas the country’s population had declined.

Notwithstanding these damning facts, U.S. Congressman Alcee Hastings, coordinator of election monitors from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), said that “democracy took a triumphant step” in the Georgian poll.

The Russian Foreign Ministry described his assessment as “hasty” and “superficial,” and said the vote was marred by “blatant pressure” on the Opposition.

In the opinion of many Russian and Georgian analysts, democracy has taken a severe beating under President Saakashvili. He has jailed dozens of Opposition politicians, clamped down on independent media and undermined the independence of the judiciary. Mr. Saakashvili’s presidency has been tainted by the mysterious death of Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania, which officials blamed on accidental gas poisoning, while relatives are convinced it was murder.

However, the West has given Georgia a clean bill of health. The OSCE monitors certified the voting in Georgia as “consistent with international standards.”

Though the Russian parliamentary polls on December 2 witnessed only a fraction of the irregularities seen in the Georgian vote, the European observers accused the Kremlin of “a clear abuse of power and a clear violation of international commitments and standards.” They registered “a lot of concerns about the evolution of democracy” in Russia.

The reason for this glaring display of double standards is obvious. Russia under President Vladimir Putin has become a thorn in the West’s side, challenging it on nearly every major international issue, and therefore it cannot by definition be called a democracy. By contrast, Georgia, which lies at the strategic crossroads of energy-rich Central Asia and Europe, has fully allied itself with the West, and in the words of U.S. President George W. Bush, is a “beacon of democracy.”

Interestingly, the OSCE election observation mission head Dieter Boden, in an interview to the Frankfurter Rundschau daily on Thursday, admitted that the Georgian vote had been marred by “gross violations, negligence and deliberate falsifications in vote counting.”

The U.S. State Department, meanwhile, has already congratulated the Georgians on “an election conducted largely in accordance with international standards.”

 Japan gets tough over safety of cyclists

 

Justin McCurry

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Multi-tasking cyclists beware. Japan is planning new measures to discourage some of the more outlandish but popular saddle habits, including “triple riding” (balancing children on the frame), listening to portable music players or using an umbrella while on the move.

In the first changes to cycling rules in almost 30 years, warnings will be issued to cyclists who listen to music players or chat on mobile phones. Offenders face a fine of ¥20,000 from this spring if they are caught triple riding — a balancing act usually involving an adult and two small children spaced out along the length of the bicycle. The constant ringing of bicycle bells on footpaths will be discouraged, as will the most disturbing trend among teen cyclists: texting while pedalling.

The new measures, recommended by a police advisory panel, are designed to halt the rise in accidents involving bicycles. The national police agency reported 4,020 such mishaps last year, a seven-fold increase over the past decade.

The number of bicycle accidents involving pedestrians has risen almost fivefold since 1996 to 2,767 incidents last year, the agency added. But the regulations could prove difficult to enforce. Most Japanese own a bicycle of some description, from high-speed road bikes to the more functional charinko — usually a rusting contraption with one gear, balding tyres and a bell.

Japan’s millions of cyclists routinely ignore parking bans outside shops and railway stations, and few believe they will heed orders to don waterproof clothes rather than unfurl a brolly, particularly during the summer rainy season. — © Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2008

 For quality education

 

This refers to the editorial “Oh, for quality education” (Jan. 9). To bridge the skill-deficit of 0.5 million workers India is likely to confront in 2010, the quality of education and teaching must improve drastically at the school level across the country. Also, it is imperative that the educational boards consult leading industries while framing the syllabi for high school and secondary school students. These steps, which are equally applicable to higher education and research, will not only enhance the human capital but also the employability levels of our youth in industry.

S. Ramakrishnasayee,

Ranipet

The fact that India, which is soon to be the most populous nation, is expected to fall short of 0.5 million workers by 2010 comes as a rude shock. It is particularly shameful in the context of higher education, because India probably has the world’s largest educational network. We present a paradoxical picture of success to the world with a few thousands of our graduates prospering, courtesy the Information Technology sector, and millions struggling due to lack of skills or missed opportunities. We have failed to address the issue of empowering all the entrants into higher education with skills that will help them to make a career. The divide between the so-called bright students and the rest is ever increasing.

Nicholas Francis,

Madurai

It is shocking to learn that according to World Bank, only 10 per cent to 25 per cent of general college graduates are suitable for employment.

The government should ensure quality education in all educational institutions by providing adequate funds and issuing suitable guidelines regarding curriculum.

Avinash Kumar,

Gurgaon

The editorial rightly exposes the inadequacies in our higher education. Periodic visionary announcements at science meets by political leaders and science administrators sound attractive but the conditions of our universities, where departments are shorn of outstanding leaders, remain unchanged.

It is time universities strengthened their departments and research paraphernalia to utilise the available funds efficiently. Appointments should be strictly on merit.

P.K. Ponnuswamy,

Udumalpet

The Prime Minister has stressed the need for a quantum jump in science education and research and announced an unprecedented increase in funds allocation and setting up of new central universities. These are, of course, welcome but what is more important, as the editorial points out, is to give priority to more effective steps to improve the quality of education in the existing universities and institutions.

Unemployment among the educated youth is not about opportunities but about employability. The first step towards improving the quality of education is engaging quality teachers. And there should be more attractive incentives to talented students to not only take up science subjects at the graduate and post-graduate levels but also to pursue research in science.

K.V. Ravindran,

Payyanur

Resurrecting crumbling edifices, if not impossible, is a tough and time-consuming task. The only way to prevent the number of ‘suitable-for-employment’ personnel from declining further is to set up new institutions. It serves little purpose to have thousands of students graduating every year and not finding employment avenues. The larger sections of students should be trained in specialised skills, depending on the needs of the growing economy.

Sudhir Raniwala,

Jaipur

 New Year revelries

 

The molestation of two women by about 70 men in Mumbai on New Year eve should make all civilised people hang their heads in shame. Any revelry devoid of values causing physical or mental agony is a manifestation of a sick mind. The deplorable incident makes me wonder how, in a country where even cruelty to animals is punishable, men commit such heinous crimes against women and go scot-free.

Nothing can be more preposterous than the Shiv Sena’s claim that it is the outsiders — migrants from other States — who are responsible for the incident.

Vengarai S. Raman,

Thanjavur

As a woman, I can understand the horror the two young women must have experienced. I also understand why they did not want to register a police complaint. But I would like to assure them that countless among us endure shameful groping, cat calling and other demeaning gestures everyday we step out of the safety of our homes. Of course, it is never spoken about. We carry on because that is what is expected of us. Should we raise our voice, our relatives would be the first to cow us down to prevent us from bringing shame to the family.

I am glad that media photographers were present at the scene of the shameful incident to bring to light a deep rooted malaise. With indisputable and irrefutable evidence on their side, the two women should have registered a complaint. They would have empowered a thousand voices that never get an opportunity to speak up.

As for the stand of the Mumbai Police Commissioner D.N. Jadhav and many like him, we would like to tell them that women have to go to work, buy groceries and drop off their children at school. Mumbai-like incidents are not triggered by improper attire, alcohol, a dark night, lonely road or New Year buzz. They happen in broad daylight on the roads, in shopping malls and theatres. They happen when women are clad in salwar kameez and sarees. They happen when women are with their husbands, brothers and fathers.

Lithi Lazar,

Chennai

I hate to downplay any of the unpleasant incidents that occurred on New Year’s eve. But the people and the media must understand that ours is a country with a population of one billion plus. The molestation of two women in Mumbai and the death of three youngsters in a Chennai hotel are but isolated incidents. Let people have fun for god’s sake in whatever way they want. People die in temple stampedes too. Can we stop going to temples? They die on the roads. Can we stop walking?

P. Rajesh Menon,

 Sri Lanka post-CFA

 

Over the past year, with the rout of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam in the Eastern Province and the serious losses inflicted by an increasingly aggressive Sri Lankan army and air force in the North, the military balance in Sri Lanka has shifted significantly in favour of the state. The Tigers have lost territory, ships carrying arms, and a large number of fighters. They have scored some terrorist hits in the South, including a dramatic ground-and-air attack on the An uradhapura air base and the assassination of the Minister for Nation Building in the vicinity of Colombo. But the military offensive is on and relentless. According to the Army Commander, Lieutenant General Sarath Fonseka, the LTTE has been “weakened…by 50 per cent or more” and is left with merely 3,000 trained fighting cadres. The head of the LTTE’s political wing, Suppiah Thamilselvan, has been eliminated; and there has been official talk of taking out Velupillai Prabakaran, who reportedly had a narrow escape in November 2007 when an air force bomb penetrated a bunker in a suburb of Kilinochchi. By then the LTTE, which had outscored the Sri Lankan government nine to one (3086 to 345) in monitored ceasefire violations up to November 30, 2006, had declared the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) “defunct.”

Under these circumstances, the question on the minds of Sri Lanka watchers was not whether but when the CFA, brokered by Norway in February 2002, would be formally ended. Nevertheless, the decision of the Mahinda Rajapaksa administration to withdraw from the CFA has met with uniformly negative responses from the international community — which is clear, as the Indian official response puts it, that “there is no military solution to the issue.” The widely shared concern is that the ending of the ceasefire will trigger an escalation of hostilities — with the armed forces launching a major offensive in the Wanni and the Tigers resorting to guerrilla warfare and terrorist strikes in the South — and take a fresh toll of civilian lives and welfare. U.N. estimates in the East put the number of people who have fled their homes and are in transitional camps at 220,000. There are no reliable estimates of the displaced in the North. The immediate critical task before the Sri Lankan government is to put in place an effective mechanism to protect and provide relief to hundreds of thousands of people caught in a humanitarian crisis of growing intensity. The other and more arduous challenge is to come up with a substantive devolution package that can lead to what the Indian official statement flags as “a settlement of political, constitutional and other issues within the framework of a united Sri Lanka, with which all communities in Sri Lanka are comfortable.” India and the world await such a far-sighted initiative from the Sri Lankan President in the New Year.

Some relief, no real change

 

In Britain’s current climate of mounting public hostility to foreigners, there is something to cheer about the move to show leniency towards foreign students who may have genuinely overstayed their visa. They can now hope to sleep more peacefully, without fearing that dreaded midnight knock — as immigration officials have been told not to rush into deporting every foreign student with an expired visa unless there is evidence of criminal wrongdoing. They have al so been instructed to take into account the circumstances in each case to avoid arbitrary “enforced removals.” The move follows complaints that even students who faced genuine delays in renewing their visas found themselves threatened with deportation. In the case of a Chinese woman student of Manchester University, the Chief Executive of the Border and Immigration Agency (BIA), Lin Homer, had to intervene personally to halt her deportation after it emerged that her visa renewal application was being processed when she was served “removal” orders. Ms Homer said that instances of this kind amounted to “taking our toughness a stage too far.” The case prompted BIA to sit up and a decision was taken to rein in the overzealous enforcement officials. The xenophobic Right has been quick to dub it an “invitation” to illegal immigration with the Tories accusing the government of turning a “blind eye to those who have no right to stay in the U.K.”

That’s clearly over the top. The apparent leniency does not signal any change in immigration policy towards foreign students. It is an administrative readjustment meant to make deportation procedures seem less cruel and arbitrary. The tough immigration rules, introduced in 2007, ostensibly to check the alleged abuse of student visas, remain in place. A more stringent regime is in the offing. Obtaining a student visa will become more difficult. To ensure that foreign students do not overstay, universities will be required to police them effectively. But Britain’s cash-strapped universities desperately need foreign students who cough up four or five times what British students pay — they contribute an estimated five billion pounds to the economy every year. Universities U.K., which represents vice-chancellors, has warned that new rules plus the frequent increases in student visa fee would make Britain less attractive for foreign students.

Election management and absentee electors

 

N. Gopalaswami

 

 

 

A multipurpose identity card issued by the government that is mandatory for all citizens for manifold uses will help to a great extent in eliminating the problem of dual registrations and duplication of names in electoral rolls.

 

 

 

 

 

Following the 2007 elections to the Gujarat Assembly, the questions that arise are: in what manner did the Election Commission (EC) plan the work, what were the special initiatives taken, and what are the lessons learnt.

The elections were free of any major untoward event, and barring a few pre-poll clashes and polling day incidents, the entire period of 73 days from the date of announcement to the date of counting passed off peacefully. Gujarat has not had any serious election-related violence in the past either. Why then did the EC decide on a two-phase poll, for only the second time in the seven instances in which elections to the Gujarat Assembly were held since 1985? Multi-phase polling had to be resorted to because as in Uttar Pradesh, in Gujarat too there was a huge number of ADS (Absentee, Duplicate and Shifted) electors. Numbering 28.63 lakh, the ‘shifted’ and ‘absent’ electors alone accounted for 7.79 per cent of the total. There were 31 Assembly constituencies where ADS electors accounted for more than 10 per cent. The Choryasi constituency in Surat district topped the list with a whopping 25 per cent of the electors in the ADS list. In many other constituencies it certainly was in excess of the margins of victory in the 2002 election.

In order to get a better grip over this category, the ‘shifted’ and ‘absent’ electors were listed under two heads. The first comprised electors with family links, meaning that some members of the family were still available at the given address. The second comprised electors without family links: this meant that the entire family was absent. But unlike in U.P. where some District Electoral Officers deleted the names of electors belonging to the latter group, in Gujarat the EC instructed the DEOs not to delete suo motu the names of such electors — learning from the mistake in U.P. Though slightly anomalous, this position was accepted, as there was insufficient time to go through the full procedural drill of issuing notices and offering personal hearings before effecting deletions. But this put an additional burden on the system to ensure that this category was not exploited for bogus voting.

This apart, there was a problem of duplicate voters. When a name was duplicated within the same polling station area, it was easy to delete the duplicate entry. However, in Gujarat 2.82 lakh duplicate entries were thrown up by the computer, which was programmed to give out a list of electors with the same first name, father’s name, surname and age (plus or minus five years). Of these, 1.21 lakh entries were deleted. When this was attempted in respect of constituencies in Surat city on the one hand and in the districts of Amreli and Bhavnagar on the other hand (since it was known that people from those districts were largely to be found in Surat in the diamond cutting and polishing trade), 50,000 duplicate entries were thrown up. Owing to lack of time, checking these cases individually was impossible. So an advertisement was placed in local newspapers cautioning people against having their names in more than one place. This resulted in about 2,000 people voluntarily seeking the deletion of duplicate entries. They were allowed to choose one polling station where they desired to vote, with the entry in the other being deleted. The next logical step would have been to do photo matching using the appropriate software, but this could not be done because of time constraints. Physical verification had also to be stopped for the same reason. However, with the knowledge of duplication of entries between Bhavnagar and Amreli districts on the one hand and Surat on the other, a partial solution was found to the problem by slotting both places for the same phase of poll, even though the latter two districts in the Saurashtra area of Gujarat are not contiguous with Surat district.

There were also cases of long-time residents of Mumbai having registered themselves as voters in towns and villages in Gujarat, mainly in North Gujarat, from where they originally hailed. Some of them were expected to turn up on the date of polling. As dual or multiple registration is an offence under Section 31 of the Representation of the People Act, 1950, warnings were issued, through advertisements in newspapers in Mumbai, on their liability for prosecution. The railway authorities and Regional Transport Officers were alerted to report unusually large movements, booking of full bogies and bulk booking of tickets. Information did come from Western Railway and from check posts in South Gujarat about unusual movements. On a specific complaint which gave the names of voters registered at two places, in some villages in North Gujarat and in particular areas in Mumbai, DEOs were asked to file complaints under Section 31 of the Representation of the People Act. These strong steps meant that only 12 out of the 191 voters with dual registration voted.

Since the ADS category of electors can be exploited for bogus voting, it was necessary to scrutinise closely the identity document presented by the ADS voters who turned up. If such a voter presented a passport or a driving licence, full details of the document were to be noted by the presiding officers, who were also expected to question the voter closely so that the correctness of his or her identity was established. These steps succeeded in almost totally eliminating bogus voting using the ADS voters list, though in some constituencies 10 per cent of voters from this list turned up to vote.

On the basis of the experience first in U.P. and now in Gujarat, it can be categorically said that ADS voters and duplicate voters will be present practically in every State. It is no wonder that in the whole of India there were 67.15 crore voters in 2004 during the parliamentary elections while based on the 2001 Census, in the projected population for 2004, citizens in the plus-18 age group (the number of electors) should have been 64.94 crore. Thus electors numbering 3.4 per cent of the total were extra on the rolls: the percentage will vary from State to State depending on the extent of inter-State and intra-State migration. Unless this problem is tackled effectively, the chances of bogus voting cannot be overcome without elaborate arrangements at the polling station level. All this extra checking puts additional pressure on the presiding officers and polling officers and results in the slowing down of voting.

It is necessary that all the stakeholders, namely the political parties, the candidates, the electors and the Election Commission, give some thought to tackling this problem if they are serious about eliminating bogus voting totally. Because of inter-State and intra-State migration, electoral rolls undergo change to the extent of 7 per cent to 8 per cent every year. Of this, 1 per cent is accounted for by deaths, and 2 per cent is accounted for by the addition of people who become eligible to vote on attaining 18 years of age. The remaining 5 per cent to 6 per cent is accounted for by inter-city and intra-city movement.

Since the Electoral Photo Identity Card (EPIC) issued by the Election Commission has relevance mostly to elections that happen once in five years, and since holding it is not a mandatory requirement and since alternative documents are prescribed from time to time to facilitate voting, many citizens do not take due care of them. Further, after migrating and while getting registered at new places they are not very concerned about getting their names deleted from their previous place of stay. Also, for various collateral reasons, people let their names remain in the electoral rolls in their home town or village — resulting in a large number of duplicate voters and absentee voters in many constituencies. This category at once lends itself to misuse by unscrupulous elements. Attempts can be made for bogus voting using information about voters whose names are on the rolls but who are not physically present. In many constituencies this number will be many multiples of the margin of victory. This fact leads to the temptation to convert a part of it to one’s advantage. If owing to ignorance or fear or collusion the polling agents do not object, it will not be possible for the presiding officers or the polling officers to prevent bogus voting. It puts enormous strain on the system in preparing the list of absentee voters. And on polling day it complicates the task of the presiding officers if they have to keep referring to too many lists before allowing a voter to vote. This also slows down voting.

A single unique identity card issued by the government which is mandatory for all citizens for all occasions, a multipurpose identity card, will help to a great extent in eliminating the problem of dual registrations and duplication of names. It will also help track ‘absentee’ and ‘shifted’ voters. Until such an identity card is mandated, the EPIC issued by the Election Commission should be made mandatory for every elector.

The Commission wants every elector to vote. It also has a responsibility to prevent bogus voting. It is possible to prevent bogus voting only if more and more electors exercise their franchise without fail. If you want a democratic government that you desire, there is no alternative to taking a little time off to go to the booth on the appointed day and press the little blue button.

(The author is the Chief Election Commissioner of India.)

 

 For a formidable economic engagement across the Himalayas

 

Pallavi Aiyar

 

 

 

Manmohan Singh’s message during his visit to China next week will possibly emphasise the necessity of developing a multi-faceted bilateral engagement, moving away from the uni-dimensional focus on the boundary dispute.

 

 

 

 

 

 

— File photo: V.V. Krishnan

Talking business: Chinese President Hu Jintao with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New Delhi in November 2006. The two countries signed a bilateral investment protection and promotion pact during Mr. Hu’s visit.

 

When Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visits China next week, he will be accompanied by a 25-plus member business delegation, comprising the big guns of India Inc. from a range of sectors including manufacturing and IT. On January 14, some 400 members of China’s business and government community will gather at a summit in Beijing organised by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), to meet these captains of Indian industry. Ideas will be exch anged to diversify the economic engagement across the Himalayas. A few business deals will be signed.

The highlight of the meeting, however, will be an address by Dr. Singh. He is expected to spell out his vision for the potentially formidable trade and investment relationship between two of the world’s fastest growing economies. The Prime Minister’s message will possibly emphasise the need to develop a multi-faceted bilateral engagement, moving away from the uni-dimensional focus on the boundary dispute.

In line with the recent stress on commerce rather than conflict, Dr. Singh will underline the significance of Mumbai and Shanghai, as much as New Delhi and Beijing, in determining the contours of Sino-Indian ties.

Growing bilateral trade

 

 

Indeed, over the last few years, border negotiations may have been limping along, but bilateral trade has been racing ahead. Between January and November 2007, Sino-Indian trade was worth $34.23 billion. This represented an almost 53 per cent increase over the same period in the previous year. In 2006, bilateral trade crossed $25 billion, a rise of 33.8 per cent over 2005. In turn, the figure of $18.7 billion for 2005 constituted a 37 per cent climb from the previous year.

When the previous Indian Prime Minister to travel to China, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, visited Beijing in June 2003, the total value of bilateral trade was $5 billion. At that time, other than minor trading activity economic links across the border were negligible. In the five years since, not only have some 100 Indian companies established a presence on Chinese shores, but Indian banks, industry associations, consultancies and even a law firm have set up shop to facilitate the burgeoning business ties.

However, several questions loom over this rosy surface picture. Apart from India’s long-term concerns over the composition of its exports to China, which primarily comprise low value primary products, a widening trade deficit is causing furrowed brows in New Delhi. While in 2004 the balance of trade was in India’s favour to the tune of $1.7 billion, by 2006 this had turned to a deficit of $4.12 billion. By November 2007, the deficit had risen to over $9 billion.

In an interview to The Hindu in mid-2007, Indian Ambassador to China Nirupama Rao stressed that a trade deficit with China was “tolerable only for a finite period,” beyond which the risk of seeing a “positive of the [bilateral] relationship assuming negative tones” ran high.

Even Chinese trade officials admit that an Indian trade deficit is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. “Unless Indians make a much more concerted effort to sell in the Chinese market, the Chinese surplus will continue,” says Wang Jinzhen, secretary- general of the CCPIT.

One possible solution, according to him, is the early negotiation of a Regional Trade Agreement (RTA) between the countries, something China has aggressively been pushing for in recent years.

Mr. Wang points to the fact that China has concluded, or is in the process of finalising, around 15 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with 29 countries and regions. He quotes the Sino-Chilean FTA as an illustration of the mutual economic benefits such agreements can bring to bilateral trade. “Within a year of the FTA with China, Chile increased its exports to China by 100 per cent,” he says.

The joint task force set up by India and China to study the feasibility of an RTA will make public its recommendations during Dr. Singh’s visit. It is widely expected to suggest that the implementation of any RTA be deferred while not ruling it out altogether.

The suggested “go slow” on the RTA is primarily the result of concerns amongst Indian business leaders. Lingering insecurities about Indian industry’s competitiveness vis-À-vis the might of China’s manufacturing are coupled with suspicions of lack of transparency in the Chinese pricing and accounting systems.

India is thus reluctant to grant China Market Economy Status (MES), which should be a first step towards the negotiation of an RTA. Currently India is a leading initiator of anti-dumping cases against China. Should New Delhi grant MES to China, it would mean India having to accept the pricing figures supplied by Beijing. This would lead to fears of large-scale dumping of Chinese products.

Harpreet Puri, founder and head of Business Links, a China-based Indian consultancy, argues that the best way is to stagger a potential RTA, restricting it to certain commodities, rather than implementing a full agreement all at once.

Boosting investments

 

 

He is of the opinion, however, that during Dr. Singh’s visit the emphasis should be on boosting cross-border investments, rather than on trade alone. “India’s trade deficit is likely to continue for some time, and so it is really important to make investments rather than trade the foundation of the relationship.”

Although a gradual stepping up of investments across the Himalayas has taken place, they remain meagre. For example, since 2006 Mr. Puri’s consultancy has helped bring in an investment of $60 million from wind energy company Suzlon, and an additional $50 million from Everest Kanto Cylinders. However, actual Indian investment in China till March 2007 stood at $178 million (although contractual investment is valued higher, at $565 million).

Chinese investments in India are less than weighty, with fewer than 50 Chinese companies known to have set up offices. According to the Indian government, FDI inflows from China between August 1991 and December 2006 worked out to a mere $3.61 million. Even the higher Chinese figure of about $17 million for actual investments is distinctly unimposing.

When Chinese President Hu Jintao visited New Delhi in November 2006, the two countries signed a bilateral investment protection and promotion pact. Since then there has been a palpable upswing in Chinese investments south of the border, particularly in the areas of infrastructure and project implementation.

However, Mr. Wang explains how lack of information about investment and market conditions in India, coupled with the country’s stringent labour laws and poor infrastructure, do not yet make it an obvious choice for Chinese investors.

Moreover, although the upgrading of economic ties is expected to take some of the heat off the simmering issues of bilateral political contention, such as the disputed boundary, continuing political suspicions work against an unfettered economic engagement.

Thus, New Delhi has for long stymied Chinese investments in certain sectors, such as telecommunications and port development, on the grounds that particular companies pose a security threat.

The latest sector to be affected is aviation. The Indian government is blocking the entry of Chinese cargo carrier Great Wall Airlines to Mumbai and Chennai, reportedly citing the fact that key nuclear facilities are located near the airports in these cities. New Delhi’s suspicions spring from the fact that one of the former owners of the airline — the China Great Wall Industry Corporation — was blacklisted by the United States for the alleged transfer of missile technology to Iran.

In retaliation, Beijing has blocked Jet Airways’ plans to fly to Chicago via Shanghai.

Sino-Indian economic ties are, in fact, still in a take-off phase. Thus, while China may be set to emerge as India’s largest trading partner, in January-November 2007 the share of Indian exports in overall Chinese imports was a mere 1.46 per cent. In the same period, India was only China’s 10th largest export destination and the 15th largest exporter to China.

This is thus crunch time for identifying and developing mechanisms to manage the bilateral economic relationship in such a way as to minimise potential friction and maximise mutual self-interest.

It is to be hoped that when speaking at the business summit next week, Dr. Manmohan Singh moves beyond the clichéd niceties of touting hardware-software collaboration and instead addresses head-on the challenges of promoting cross-border economic ties in all their thorny complexity.

The race is wide open, the policy menu is not

 

Siddharth Varadarajan

 

 

 

As with all American presidential elections, neither the result nor the leading candidates’ promises of “change” should be taken for granted.

 

 

 

 

 

Fighting off early intimations of political mortality, Hillary Rodham Clinton has put herself back in the race for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination with her slender victory over Barack Obama in Wednesday’s primaries in New Hampshire. In numerical terms, the tiny north-eastern State may not count for much, but an Obama victory there would have fatally wounded Ms Clinton’s prospects in the run-up to the next round of primaries and caucuses.

As matters stand, however, there is plenty of fight still left and it will not be until the ‘Super Tuesday’ contests of February 5 — when 24 States get to pick their candidates — that the fate of one or the other will be decisively settled, and perhaps not even then. In between, key States such as South Carolina will also vote, as will Michigan and Florida (though neither State will get to send candidates to the Democratic National Convention as a penalty for holding their primaries ahead of schedule).

On the Republican side, the emergence of Senator John McCain as the victor in New Hampshire has breathed new life into his candidature and broadened a somewhat lacklustre field of front-runners. At the same time, national opinion surveys in the United States still favour Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, even if the former Governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee, took Iowa last week. As for Rudy Giuliani, the former New York Mayor, currently languishing in both surveys and votes cast so far, a strong showing in Florida on January 29 will likely bring him back into the race.

In any case, if past presidential elections are any indication, one must be careful not to over-interpret the significance of Iowa and New Hampshire. Mr. McCain defeated George W. Bush in New Hampshire in 2000 but did not go on to win his party’s nomination. And in 1992, Tom Harkin won the Democratic primary in Iowa and Paul Tsongas took New Hampshire. But both men ended up being comprehensively defeated by Bill Clinton as the race unfolded.

What makes the task of calling the race even more difficult is the clustering of political positions and campaign styles around a market-determined Golden Mean. In a political and media culture which closely scrutinises every facial expression and hand gesture of a candidate and finely parses the briefest of their utterances for signs of deviance, presidential hopefuls have the unenviable task of at once blending in with the pack and standing out from the crowd. The only way to do this is to emphasise personal style, which is why both observers and campaign managers focus excessively on the nature of the campaign rather than its substance. Thus, Ms Clinton, who initially adopted a hard-nosed ‘statesmanlike’ demeanour finds herself under pressure to shed the occasional tear, while Mr. Obama, whose silken oratory and promises of change first propelled him to national prominence, has had to make his peace with the Washington establishment by toeing the line on Israel, Iran, homeland security, the ‘global war on terrorism’ and other American holy cows.

Given the disasters the Bush administration has caused in Iraq and elsewhere, it is only natural that all candidates — Democrats and Republicans — feel obliged to declare they will bring about a substantive change in the way the U.S. deals with the world.

Iraq quagmire

 

 

In reality, the change, when it comes, will at best be marginal. For one, the U.S. has already begun to reorient many of its policies and is looking for a respectable way out of the Iraq quagmire. Mr. Obama is more forthright in his promise of a troop withdrawal in line with the timetable spelt out by last year’s Iraq Study Group report, though there are enough caveats in the fine print of his statements to cover all contingencies.

On Iran, the Democrats can afford to affect a dovish line because the Bush administration has itself been forced to move away from its dangerously confrontationist approach. Though the threat of American adventurism still remains, a Democratic-controlled White House will be just as likely to use force as a Republican one. As recently as last summer, Mr. Obama wrote (in the July/August 2007 issue of Foreign Affairs) that the U.S. “must not rule out using military force.” Ms Clinton has been even more brazen in her advocacy of confrontation with Tehran. Having earlier backed the Bush administration’s invasion of Iraq in 2003, she has continued to support the imposition of sanctions and voted in favour of a controversial resolution in the Senate declaring Iran’s Revolutionary Guards a “terrorist organisation.”

In the domestic sphere, a Clinton or Obama victory will have tremendous social and political significance. As for the wider canvas of foreign policy issues, however, neither leader is likely to usher in any major changes. Both are strong supporters of Israel and will do nothing to pressure the Zionist state to withdraw from the Palestinian territories it has illegally occupied. Both leaders will continue the Bush policy of building strong strategic and military partnerships with countries in Asia as a means of projecting American hegemony and managing the emergence of China, a country Mr. Obama has described as “neither our enemy nor our friend [but a] competitor.” In her October/November 2007 Foreign Affairs article, Ms Clinton said the U.S. should find “additional ways for Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. to cooperate” on a range of military, political and economic issues. The ‘Quadrilateral powers’ initiative is, of course, a key Bush project.

One area where both Mr. Obama and Ms Clinton differ from President George W. Bush is on support for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Both candidates say they stand for the early ratification of America’s accession to the CTBT. Both also say they support a verifiable Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty. However, as Bill Clinton’s presidency showed, the endorsement of the White House does not mean the entire military-strategic establishment will be prepared to accept a serious arms control measure. Even with Ms Clinton or Mr. Obama in the White House, the Senate could still withhold support for the treaty.

Human activity blamed for decline of coral reefs

 

James Randerson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Caribbean coral reefs have suffered significant damage from over-fishing and run-off from agricultural land, according to a study of 322 sites across 13 countries. The study provides compelling evidence that proximity to a large human population spells bad news for their survival.

“It is well acknowledged that coral reefs are declining worldwide but the driving forces remain hotly debated,” said author Camilo Mora at Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada. “In the Caribbean alone, these losses are endangering a large number of species, from corals to sharks.” — © Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Printer friendly page  

 Oh, for quality education

 

The future beckons. The Indian economy is growing rapidly and Indian companies are establishing global reputations as innovators in diverse fields from information technology to biotechnology and pharmaceuticals. However, a World Bank study published last year pointed out that India’s demand for highly educated, skilled workers was already outstripping supply. While the country would need 2.3 million knowledge professionals by 2010, it could face a deficit of up to 0.5 million workers. Moreover, the number of professionals engaged in research and development per million population in India compares poorly not just with the developed nations but also with developing countries, notably China, Brazil, and Mexico. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has repeatedly called for “a new revolution in modern education.” Inaugurating this year’s Indian Science Congress at Visakhapatnam, he emphasised the need for “a quantum jump in science education and research.” The Eleventh Five Year Plan, which he described as “a National Education Plan,” would see an unprecedented five-fold increase in spending on education in nominal terms. The government would fund the setting up of new central universities, Indian Institutes of Science Education and Research, IITs, IIMs as well as Indian Institutes of Information Technology. A mission for vocational training would be launched and the science and technology base in universities strengthened. There would be attractive scholarships for school students and for talented youth enrolling in B.Sc. and M.Sc. courses.

As a leading Indian scientist pointed out in an article in The Hindu recently, in terms of sheer numbers there is no dearth of technical manpower in the country. India has nearly nine million science graduates, two million post-graduates, and 100,000 people with Ph.D. qualifications. Every year, two million students enrol for science degrees and another 700,000 for engineering. But as the scientist noted, the IT giants are hiring thousands of graduates from abroad while two million science graduates are registered at the country’s employment exchanges. The World Bank study estimates that only 10 per cent to 25 per cent of general college graduates are ‘suitable’ for employment. The key issue is ensuring quality education. Over many years, colleges and universities have just not got the support they deserved to produce the right kind of human resource. The universities, in particular, instead of developing into vibrant centres of high-quality education and research able to attract both good faculty and students, have become largely moribund. Overcoming this malady must be given a higher national priority than setting up new institutions.

 Awash with foreign funds

 

The Reserve Bank of India’s preliminary balance of payments (BOP) data for the first six months of the year do not reveal any significant departure from certain well documented trends in the external sector. The impact of the strengthening rupee is once again seen in the decelerating merchandise exports. Compared with a more than 25 per cent growth during April-September 2006, their growth has been 19.9 per cent in the corresponding period this year. There is a growing clamour for expanding the range of export sops. The larger debate over policy measures to moderate the rupee’s rise, however, remains inconclusive. Merchandise imports, on the other hand, have grown by 21.9 per cent, compared to 24.7 per cent during the same period last year. Oil imports have grown at a sharply lower rate, almost certainly due to the fact that global oil prices were at that time well below today’s unprecedented levels. However there has been a spurt in the import mainly of export-related items and gold and silver. The trade deficit has widened to $42.4 billion, a jump of $8.7 billion. Invisible receipts have increased at a much slower pace mainly on account of a deceleration in the exports of both software and business services. This ominous development is once again partly attributable to the strong rupee and its impact on the margins of leading software exporters. However, remittances from Indians working abroad, which form part of private transfers, were higher at $19 billion, up from $12.7 billion. That has been the main factor behind the higher invisible surplus, which at $31.8 billion is $8.3 billion more than last year’s corresponding figure.

As a result of the growth in invisibles, the current account deficit was only marginally higher, at $10.7 billion. As in earlier years, it is the aggregate of net capital flows that has propped up the balance of payments, and this time the increase is very substantial — over $31 billion — and it covered almost all categories. Net foreign direct investment has been higher by $2.6 billion. Portfolio investment has jumped more than 11 times to $18 billion, a development clearly corroborated by the rising stock markets. Only in one category, NRI deposits, there has been a net outflow, reflecting lower deposit rates. Curiously, other government disincentives to check unbridled external commercial borrowings have not borne fruit. Capital flows in this category have almost doubled. The BOP data reinforce the point that rupee appreciation and checking the unprecedented levels of capital flows will remain the key concerns of monetary and fiscal policies.

 Persisting diaspora concerns in Myanmar

 

V. Suryanarayan

 

 

 

The Indian community in Myanmar should get a better deal. Some thoughts on the occasion of Pravasi Bharatiya Divas.

 

 

 

 

 

On March 18, 1946, addressing a predominantly Indian gathering in Singapore, Jawaharlal Nehru said: “India cannot forget her sons and daughters overseas. Although India cannot defend her children overseas today, the time is soon coming when her arm will be long enough to protect them.”

This declaration held forth the promise of an enlightened policy approach towards Indians overseas once India became independent. The words of cheer and hope were a natural culmination of the Indian national movement under the leadership of Mahatma Gandhi, who had started his political career defending the rights of indentured Indian labourers in South Africa. The cause of Indians overseas was also dear to other great leaders, such as Gopal Krishna Gokhale, V.S. Srinivasa Shastri, C.F. Andrews, Jawaharlal Nehru, H.N. Kunzru, Acharya Kripalani and Ram Manohar Lohia. They repeatedly stressed the need to safeguard the interests of the unfortunate people, who had to leave the shores of India to cater to the economic interests of imperialist Britain.

But the hope that independent India would pursue an enlightened policy towards Indians overseas was not fulfilled. The Government of India’s perception and policy towards them underwent many twists and turns. The deep concern for migrant workers that was felt during the nationalist phase gave way to a disavowal of any responsibility for those who were viewed as the subjects of a separate country. Later, the migration of skilled personnel from India was characterised as part of a “brain drain.” Once the economic liberalisation process began, New Delhi’s policy turned full circle. Indians overseas were characterised as unofficial ambassadors of India who could contribute to the country’s economic transformation and act as a bridge between India and the outside world.

Following the recommendations of the Singhvi Committee Report on the Indian Diaspora (December 2001), January 9 came to be celebrated as Pravasi Bharatiya Divas (Overseas Indians Day).

The date has a symbolic significance. For it was on January 9, 1915, that Gandhiji, often called the first Pravasi Bharatiya, returned to India after two decades in South Africa where he led a struggle for Indian freedom. On January 9, representatives of Indians overseas, both people of Indian origin and non-resident Indians, assemble, the Government of India confers decorations on the high profile ones among them and policy pronouncements are made.

The estimated number of the Indian diaspora population is more than 20 million. They are scattered in different parts of the world, and therefore it can be said that the sun never sets on the diaspora. It will be simplistic and naïve to assume that the problems that they face and what the future holds for them are identical in all cases. Their problems are intertwined with the nature of their migration, their social and economic status, the size of a given community, educational attainments, and the majority-minority syndrome in the countries where they have settled.

In countries such as South Africa, they were until recently subjected to varying forms of discrimination. In Mauritius, Guyana, Malaysia, Singapore and Trinidad, they share political power. In Fiji, though they constitute the majority community, they have been effectively deprived of political power. In the United States, they are one of the most affluent minority groups and an object of envy and admiration. Nearer home in Sri Lanka, people of Indian origin were converted into merchandise to be divided between the two countries in the name of “good neighbourly relations.” The media in India devote considerable attention to happenings among Indians overseas. Academics have started researching on their problems. Politicians are keeping abreast with developments relating to them and the Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs regularly comes out with policy decisions.

Tragic status

 

 

However, not much attention is being devoted to the tragic status of the Indian community in the neighbouring state of Mynamar. According to the Singhvi Committee Report, the total Indian population in Myanmar is estimated to be 2.9 million. Of this, 2,500,00 are people of Indian origin, 2,000 are Indian citizens and 400,000 are stateless. All of them were born in Myanmar and belong to the third or fourth generation in the country. But since they “do not have any documents to prove their citizenship under the Burmese citizenship law of 1982,” they are deemed to be stateless. The only document they had was the foreigner’s registration certificate, which they had to renew every year on payment.

T.P. Sreenivasan, a former Indian Ambassador to Burma, has pointed out: “They had no rights either in their land of origin or in their land of adoption, and neither of the governments seemed concerned.” In fact, Myanmar has the largest number of stateless people among those of the Indian diaspora.

The Singhvi Committee Report was an eye-opener. It said Indians are “fairly impoverished in Myanmar.” The more prosperous among them have left following waves of nationalisation and other measures which hurt their means of livelihood. The educational scene is pathetic. At one time the faculty and alumni of the University of Rangoon comprised mainly Indians. Today “there are hardly any Indian students in the universities.” This has resulted in a virtual extinction of a professional class. The main reason was that “between 1964 and 1988, Indians were denied admission to the universities and professional courses.”

The marginalisation of the Indian community is directly related to the policies pursued by successive Burmese governments. The introduction of radical land reforms in the days following independence hit the members of the Chettiar community, who complained about not receiving compensation. Even in cases where compensation was paid, it was inadequate.

When the Burmese government introduced the Socialist Programme in the 1960s and nationalised even the retail trade, that sounded the death knell of the poorer sections of the Indian population. Many of them lost their savings, returned to India and had to start their lives afresh. The Burmese repatriates complained that they lost their savings, their properties were confiscated. Their women were not even permitted to bring their mangalya sutra. Even after the lapse of 43 years, the issue of compensation to the affected Indians has not been settled.

C.N. Annadurai, who became Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu in 1967, was concerned about the developments in Burma and was keen to resolve the compensation issue. In a conversation, Thomas Abraham, who was then Minister Counselor in the Indian Embassy in Rangoon, recalled a meeting he had with Annadurai in the Chief Minister’s residence, arranged through some common friends.

After discussing the pros and cons of the matter, Annadurai wrote to the Central government suggesting that India enter into a long-term agreement with Burma for the import of rice. He suggested that the compensation due to be paid to Burmese repatriates be adjusted as part of the proposed deal. In 1967 India was facing an acute shortage of foodgrains. On his return to Rangoon, Mr. Abraham made a similar proposal to the Ministry of External Affairs. Unfortunately, these concrete proposals did not elicit a favourable response from New Delhi.

‘Hands-off policy’

 

 

In his recently published memoirs, Words, Words, Words: Adventures in Indian Diplomacy, Mr. T.P. Sreenivasan has described the consequences of New Delhi’s “hands-off policy” with regard to the Indian community in Myanmar. Though the Ne Win government expelled the Indian petty traders, the authorities wanted the Indian farmers to stay back to provide continuity in rice cultivation. When Mr. Sreenivasan visited them, he found that the “farmers had become totally impoverished.” Their quality of life “was extremely poor.” Ironically, they “did not have even rice to eat” as the procurement authorities “lifted their produce wholly.” They had to consume low-quality rice, which the state did not want to purchase for export.

This year also Pravasi Bharatiya Divas is being celebrated. The Ministers of the Central government, the government officials concerned and delegates from developed countries will harp on the necessity to speed up the administrative procedures relating to dual citizenship.

But will they find time to discuss the abject living conditions of the Indian community in Myanmar? Unlikely, because today New Delhi is more keen to provide legitimacy to the authoritarian government in Myanmar. Naturally, it will not like to focus on embarrassing issues that impinge on bilateral relations — like the plight of the unfortunate children of Mother India.

(Dr. V. Suryanarayan is a retired Senior Professor of the Centre for South and Southeast Asian Studies, University of Madras.)

 Speculation over oil prices

 

Andrew Clark

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Think oil at $100 a barrel seems expensive? Speculators are already betting that the price will double to $200 a barrel by year-end. On the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the number of options to buy oil at $200 has leapt 10-fold in the past two months to 5,533 contracts.

The increase in demand is a record for any similar period.

The price for the contracts has jumped 36 per cent since early December.

Options contracts are a simple way for investors to speculate on rising prices. Buyers do not have to keep them until the price hits $200 — they can simply sell them on as their value rises.

The number of $200 contracts is still extremely small in the context of the overall options market — and Kevin Norrish, director of commodity research at Barclays Capital, suggested that it would take a “massive supply shock,” such as another war in the Middle East, for the price to double this year.

“It’s not outside the bounds of possibility — but it’s a very extreme possibility,” Mr. Norrish said. “You would have to see a very large proportion of supply taken out of the market for that to happen.”

Barclays Capital predicts an average oil price of $87.40 for 2008. It expects the market to remain tight, with demand strong in America and Asia and weak supplies from non-OPEC countries. — ©Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2008

 Rule of law, at and after Sydney

 

Harish Khare

 

 

 

Once we get over all the hysteria and breast-beating about umpire Steve Bucknor’s infractions, those who love the game have to work together to preserve and deepen the rules-regime in international cricket.

 

 

 

 

 

In 1986, A. Bartlett Giamatti, a renowned scholar of classical English literature, an enlightened administrator, and a passionate historian and writer of baseball, decided to leave the world’s most prestigious academic position — president of Yale University — to take up the job of president of the National League of Baseball in the United States. Many of Professor Giamatti’s academic friends thought he had opted for a lesser world of professional sports. But Professor Giamatti thought otherwise because his central intellectual contention was that professional baseball, like any other organised sport, was essentially a device to tame man’s wild and violent impulses and to initiate and indoctrinate the spectators (and, by extension, the citizenry) into the complex web of obligations that lies at the heart of the rule of law.

Within a year of becoming a top sports administrator, Professor Giamatti was called upon to adjudicate the appeal against suspension (for 10 days) of a player who was accused of cheating. After a lengthy, elaborate and transparent hearing, Professor Giamatti put out a detailed judgment (reaffirming the suspension) but also eloquently underlining the principles of fair play. The Giamatti judgment reiterated “the basic foundation of any contest declaring the winner — that all participants play under identical rules and conditions.” It talked of the need to preserve “faith in the games’ integrity and fairness; if participants and spectators alike cannot assume integrity and fairness, and proceed from there, the contest cannot in its essence exist.”

These Giamatti propositions are being recalled in the context of the controversies that have come to surround the just concluded cricket Test at Sydney between India and Australia. And, at the very outset, it must be acknowledged that in India (as also in the rest of the South Asian region) there is a cultivated tendency to quarrel with the law-enforcer, particularly when the law-enforcer has given an unfavourable ruling.

Matter of national honour?

 

 

Predictably, the Sydney standoff was effortlessly converted by us in India into a matter of national honour. Television anchors and newspapers screamed: desh ki izzat. At best, izzat is a feudal concept, instigating over the decades mindless and bloody vendettas among families, clans, tribes, and nations in this part of the world.

And when on Tuesday morning the International Cricket Council chose to see merit in Indian protestations, a Board of Control for Cricket in India official permitted himself to say that the “ICC has respected the sentiments of the people of India.” That is missing entirely what was at stake in Sydney: just as it is incumbent upon a player or a citizen to obey the law, there is an equally vital obligation on the part of the law-enforcers to perform their responsibilities in a competent, transparent, and fair manner.

It would be most unproductive for the game of cricket if we were to make a habit of whipping up national emotions every time there is an imperfect umpiring decision. Like any other sport, cricket is also a test of players’ skills, physique, temperaments, character, and intellect. At times, hysteria among zealous fans can and does spur players to reach within themselves to raise their game; but, adulation cannot be a substitute for performance against a talented opponent.

And though international cricket is played according to a highly elaborate rule-book, what the Sydney standoff has shown is the need to ensure that fair rules are fairly and uniformly enforced. Also this enforcement of rules will need to be done more transparently than has been the case so far. For instance, so little is known of the procedural and testimonial protocols adopted by the match referee, Mike Proctor when he upheld the “racism” charge against Harbhajan Singh.

Australian cricketer Mike Hussey was reported to have said: “there have been a lot of contentious decisions, but you have got to accept the umpire’s decision. It takes discipline to do that without showing any dissent.” Hussey is not wrong, except that it needs to be understood by everyone who loves and enjoys the game of cricket that referees and umpires will be not be respected, on and off the field, if their decisions are seen to be arbitrary.

Any suggestion of arbitrariness goes against the very principles of rule of law and fair play.

Worthy decision

 

 

The ICC’s belated decision to replace Steve Bucknor, a real culprit on performance count, is a worthy acknowledgement that it was time to revisit bad and imperfect enforcement of rules, otherwise there would be disrespect and defiance of the whole structure of law. From Pakistan to Kenya, the lesson is obvious: Presidents, generals and administrators can keep on asking the citizen to fall in line and obey the law but there will be no obedience to lawful authority if the rules of the game are unfairly enforced.

Just as functional judiciaries all over the world take care to enforce some kind of behavioural and performance codes on judges and adjudicators, it had become incumbent upon the ICC to send out a message to all stake-holders — cricketers, administrators, umpires and referees, sponsors and fans — that it was alive to the possibility of imperfections and incapacities on the part of law-enforcers. To that extent, the standoff at Sydney will not go waste.

 Gujarat elections

 

The scholarly article “Gujarat elections: some reflections” (Jan. 5) clearly warns us of the folly of brushing aside the horrendous events of 2002 on the basis of Narendra Modi’s landslide in the recently held election to the State Assembly.

What is disturbing is a large section seems to have endorsed or chosen to forget the riots. One is reminded of the frenzy that gripped most of Germany when the Nazis came to power.

John P. Anthony,

Hyderabad

The suggestion by some readers that it is time we moved forward and forgot the 2002 riots is disturbing. The victims of the genocide are still living in fear and deplorable conditions, while the perpetrators are free. Isn’t it the government’s responsibility to rehabilitate the victims and punish the perpetrators? Since when did the demand for justice become retrograde? Why should we have courts and a justice system?

Seyed Ibrahim,

Chennai

A comparison between Gujaratis and Germans under the Nazi regime is atrocious. We haven’t read about concentration camps or killing of Muslims every day since 2002, have we? The Gujarati Hindus and Muslims have put the horrors of 2002 behind them and moved on.

Sudhamshu Hebbar,

Chennai

The Nazis planned their murders and committed them en masse — persecuting the Jews systematically. What happened in Gujarat was spontaneous and the government controlled the riots after initial hiccups. A majority of 5 crore Gujaratis voted for Mr. Modi. Their collective wisdom, I am sure, cannot be faulted.

Raghu Seshadri,

Chennai

True, Gujarat 2002 should not have happened, true the government failed to curb the riots in time. But it is also true that Gujarat has made tremendous progress in recent years, for which Mr. Modi deserves credit.

Is the Gujarat electorate so insensitive as to vote a demon to power? Let us not overlook Gujarat’s achievement. And let us praise Mr. Modi for what he has done for Gujarat after the riots.

Nikhil Srivastava,

Bokaro

 The death penalty

 

This refers to the editorial “Abolish the death penalty” (Jan. 7). By voting for a moratorium on executions, the United Nations General Assembly has expressed serious concern over the inhuman practice. Capital punishment imposes a definitive penalty on a man whose culpability is often relative. It denies the condemned man his natural right to live and a chance to make amends. Moreover, the death penalty is anti-poor. Most of those on the death row are those who could not afford to hire a lawyer. Since our criminal justice system is not foolproof, there is a danger of an innocent person being wrongfully punished.

A civilised state like India should not have the authority to award capital punishment even in the rarest of rare cases.

T. Marx,

Karaikal

 Changing contours

 

It may not look like an irreversible long term trend, yet the steady loss of the dominant market share held by State Bank of India and other government-owned banks merits attention. No doubt the financial sector liberalisation since the 1990s was meant to usher in greater competition and give a wider choice to customers. One significant reform measure was the licensing of a few “new generation” private banks. These banks, with adequate capital and access to the latest technology, were expected to carve out a significant space for themselves. Unlike insurance, banking in India was never wholly a government monopoly. Even after the two-stage nationalisation process that began in 1969, there were a number of private banks and foreign banks competing among themselves and with the public sector banks, which retained their individual identities. Even as recently as 2002, the government-owned banks had a 78 per cent share. However, as the new private banks went through a process of consolidation, a few of them led by the ICICI Bank gained at the expense of both the public sector banks and the older private banks. While a drop in the market share of government banks as a class was expected, that the country’s oldest bank, SBI, would suffer the most came as a surprise.

According to a recent RBI report, the share of SBI and its associates fell from 28 to 24 per cent over a five-year period beginning 2001-02. The new private banks added 7 percentage points to garner a market share of 16 per cent last year. Independent studies however point out that it is the SBI that has seen the maximum erosion. For instance, its share of total banking deposits has fallen from 22 to 16 per cent over a seven-year period beginning 2000. The other government-owned banks — including even SBI’s associates — have more or less managed to stay where they were. Apparently the significant advantages that SBI traditionally enjoyed in terms of capital, branch network, and human resources have not helped, at least so far. SBI is still the largest bank and how it moves to face its latest challenge will determine the contours of the financial sector in India.

 Yes America, I will show the way

 

Ramesh Thakur

 

 

 

Barack Obama could make a great President, embodying in his person the narrative of the civil war struggles to overcome barriers of race and discrimination, yet eschewing in his persona the anger of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton.

 

 

 

 

 

If one year from now the world expectantly awaits the inauguration of Barack Obama as President of the United States of America, we will look back not on the Iowa results but on his stirring victory speech as the moment the impossible became the inevitable. It is hard for anyone watching that speech even after the event, anyone who cares about the world and cares about our common future, not to be moved. Rather than savour and linger on it, Mr. Obama took his victory and built on it for the morning after in New Hampshire and beyond.

There are cadences of oratorical passion and soaring rhetoric reminiscent of Martin Luther King and metaphorical flourishes and peaks that recall the uplifting brilliance of John F. Kennedy. As if that isn’t enough, Mr. Obama has a Ronald Reagan-like capacity to make Americans feel good again about themselves and their country. Even his smile is incandescent yet authentic and therefore infectious. Win or lose hereafter, Mr. Obama has dispersed some of the suffocating smoke of cynicism and put a bit of fun and fizz back into politics.

Lest we forget, however, and no matter what the sequel to Iowa, let us pay homage to America and the American dream more generally. Later this year, the Democratic Party will have either a black or a woman as its presidential standard bearer. The party’s field of candidates is already America at its most glorious best: Barack Obama, son of a white Christian woman from Kansas and a black Muslim father from Kenya who grew up in Hawaii and Indonesia, victorious in 96 per cent white Iowa; Hillary Clinton, a woman; and Bill Richardson, a Hispanic-American, among others. On the evidence to date, any one of them would make a good President. Mr. Obama could make a great President, embodying in his person the narrative of the civil war struggles to overcome barriers of race and discrimination, yet eschewing in his persona the anger of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton who captured the rage of the disempowered but failed to turn that into a positive programme of action for all Americans.

America matters, what America does and does not do matters, and so the choice of who leads America matters to the rest of us. It is impossible for the world to move forward if America decides to stand still and refuses to budge, as on climate change. It is impossible for the world to avoid a tsunami of misfortunes when America takes a misstep, as in Iraq. By the same token, it is impossible for outsiders not to celebrate when America presents its most attractive face to the world which no other country, still, can match.

This is why I was up late the night of the Iowa caucuses, listening and reading as the early results and trends, and the confirmation of the final tally, came in to the accompaniment of pundits’ instant analyses. A political news junkie, I had difficulty going to sleep after the excitement of the results. The night alone was proof that America is becoming a better and more inclusive nation. Who better to put it into words than the man of the hour himself in his victory speech. “This defining moment in history”, he said, was an affirmation of “the most American of ideas — that in the face of impossible odds, people who love this country can change it.” In identifying with and investing in Mr. Obama, the people of Iowa have put paid to the soft bigotry of low expectations that condemns millions of people everywhere to a life of unfulfilled expectations and self-fulfilling despair.

The night was historic, yet history provides no guide to interpreting the results. For we have seen nothing like it before. Mr. Obama’s message of hope, healing and change was a powerful beacon that resonated with and drew thousands to the crowded caucuses in an emotionally charged exercise to reclaim the nation’s political soul. It truly is difficult not to start basking in the glow of the lamp lit in the cold Iowa night of January 3. As the New York Times’ Bob Herbert put it (Jan. 5), “Shake hands with tomorrow. It’s here.”

I am in a crowded field of analysts, American as well as international, who have believed that the damage wrought by the Bush administration will take years and decades to undo. Not with Mr. Obama. Where Hillary offers the choice of good policy in the hands of a competent manager, Mr. Obama seduces with the vision of a great leader: Yes, America, there is a promised land, and I will show you the way. Hillary offers retribution for all the sins of the George W. Bush years with a promise to relive the glory years of husband Bill Clinton; Mr. Obama offers redemption that will transcend the bitterness of the Bush-Clinton culture wars with a dynastic tinge to it. To her connections and calculation, he offers conviction and aspirations. She may believe she is entitled to rule; many more believed on the night that he is born to lead. From this point on, the race is his to lose more than hers to win.

As the New York Times columnist Gail Collins argued (Jan. 5), even Hillary Rodham the fresh graduate would have been an Obama girl not a Hillary Clinton fan today. For Mr. Obama bested her in just about every demographic cohort that will decide the election: women, independents and the young. Her underlying negatives and the weight of baggage inherited from the 1990s — the decade of the Clintons — proved too burdensome against the strength of positives that the Obama campaign has steadily been communicating over many months. Angry Democrats who want to get even with Mr. Bush will vote for Hillary; those impatient to move on — eager to see the back of Mr. Bush but equally to turn their back on the wearying partisan culture wars of the last several decades going back to Vietnam — will embrace Mr. Obama.

Hillary could not square the circle of offering change by insisting on not doing things differently in Washington. While Mr. Obama promises to motivate large numbers of first time and independent voters and rally them around the Democratic flag, she has a significant hate following that would mobilise the strident Republican base to the anyone-but-Hillary rallying call. Iowa may thus potentially cement worries about her unelectability while easing anxieties about his.

Leadership lies in articulating a bold vision and persuading others to buy into it, emotionally as well as intellectually, in ways that transcend their immediate self-interest. It means setting standards of national and international behaviour, explaining why they are important, and coaxing others to adopt them as personal benchmarks. Mr. Obama captured elements of this brilliantly in his victory speech.

Bill Clinton had warned that a vote for Mr. Obama would be a roll of the dice and that the issues confronting America were much too grave for such a gamble. Iowans have rolled the dice in favour of hope over experience. A triumph indeed that even the rest of us can savour no matter the final outcome, sharing in the pride and amazement of white as well as all hyphenated-Americans that they might be on the cusp of something big. To paraphrase Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru’s great independence speech, a moment comes, which comes but rarely in history. Of such cathartic moments are great democracies made, sustained and renewed.

The Bush administration has presented an angry and intense American face to the world playing to and heightening the nation’s fears and insecurity. The result? The United States has sometimes been ugly, as in Iraq; sometimes AWOL (absent without official leave), as in Guantanamo Bay; and at other times absent in action, as on climate change.

Mr. Obama has not always shown himself to be the master of the 20-second soundbite. Yet the detailed interviews he has given on foreign policy issues show him to be a thoughtful and reflective candidate. Probing the depth of his knowledge confirms he is book smart; Iowa proves he is street smart. We foreigners can but pray that the new President, whoever he or she may be, will return America to its strengths, values and the tradition of exporting hope and optimism. And so help to lift America and the world up, not tear one another down.

(Ramesh Thakur is Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation and Professor of Political Science at the University of Waterloo.)

A high profile visit and some realities

 

Pallavi Aiyar

 

 

 

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s coming visit to Beijing can be seen as one more step in the long road towards strengthening bilateral ties.

 

 

 

 

 

The geopolitical spotlight at the start of the New Year is firmly trained on Chindia, with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh gearing up for his much anticipated visit to the Chinese capital. In the 21st century, India and China have emerged as two of the world’s fastest growing economies. With a combined population equal to a third of the world’s total, the appetites and interests of the two countries are of increasing influence in shaping the new and as yet unset tled, post-Cold War order.

It is in this context that the significance of their evolving bilateral ties must be analysed. Formidable as both potential collaborators and equally fearsome as competitors, the two neighbours find themselves facing similar challenges and opportunities. Scouring the world for the oil and other natural resources needed to feed their burgeoning economies, both countries are concerned with developing new foreign policies that match their changing aspirations and status. To this end, they are seeking to modernise their militaries, increase their regional influence by integrating areas on their periphery, and develop their soft power.

The relationship between two nations on the rise is never a simple one, but Sino-Indian ties are subject to added layers of complexity. India and China not only share a disputed border that is thousands of kilometres long but are also attempting to spread their wings in essentially overlapping areas of influence.

Dr. Singh’s visit to China will be the first by an Indian Prime Minister in almost five years. Given the significance of the bilateral engagement this might seem like a long gap, but it is nonetheless an improvement over previous occasions. The last Indian Prime Minister to travel to Beijing, Atal Bihari Vajpayee in June 2003, made the trip after a space of 10 years. At the time, cross-Himalayan relations were notable mainly for their prickliness, with the single issue of the boundary predominating. When India tested a nuclear device in 1998, it pointed to the ostensible strategic threat posed by China, as justification. Until March 2002, the two countries lacked a direct flight connection. Bilateral trade that same year stood at a paltry $5 billion.

Since then, however, ties have substantially improved. Trade has been galloping forward, investments are on the up, and steps towards cooperation on a broad spectrum from energy to the military have been undertaken. During Mr. Vajpayee’s 2003 China trip, special representatives from both sides were appointed to seek a political solution to the border dispute. Two years later, in 2005, Premier Wen Jiabao visited New Delhi and a series of political parameters and guiding principles for the devising of a framework to settle the dispute were announced. Simultaneously, the decision to upgrade ties to a strategic and cooperative partnership was also taken.

In the last year itself several milestones in bilateral relations were reached. From January to November, bilateral trade rocketed to $34.2 billion.

In December, the armies of the two countries conducted their first-ever series of joint exercises, taking a long stride away from the bitterness and suspicion that followed in the wake of the 1962 war.

Earlier in the last year, a special hotline between the two Foreign Ministries was set up even as new consulates opened up in Guangzhou and Kolkata. Fresh flight routes were added connecting eastern India with southern China, taking the total number of weekly direct flights between the countries to 22.

Congress president Sonia Gandhi made a high profile visit to Beijing in October 2007. Two months later, the third India-China strategic dialogue was held in the Chinese capital. Moreover, the two countries found several opportunities to make common cause on a variety of global issues including climate change and the World Trade Organisation negotiations.

However, despite the visible upswing in bilateral ties, unresolved tensions continue to simmer under the surface, even as new areas of potential contention have emerged.

Widening trade deficit

 

 

On the economic front, a widening trade deficit for India is threatening to mar the positive of the business engagement. In the January-November period for 2007, the Indian trade deficit with China widened to $9.02 billion, compared to the $843 million trade surplus New Delhi enjoyed as recently as 2005. India is also yet to grant China market economy status and is reluctant to enter into the Free Trade Agreement that Beijing is pushing for.

Developments of a geo-strategic nature have also caused discomfiture on both sides of the border. For example, Beijing’s official reaction to the Indo-U.S. deal on civilian nuclear energy cooperation has been lukewarm, with the Chinese media accusing the accord of hurting the global nuclear non-proliferation regime.

In the meantime, China has continued to extend military and nuclear cooperation, including major arms sales and energy assistance to Pakistan, its “all weather” ally. Beijing’s “string of pearls” strategy involving the building of naval bases all along the Indian Ocean has the Indian military establishment nervous, as does the country’s new push towards developing high quality infrastructure along the southern border of Tibet.

Suspicions have in turn been aroused in China by India’s growing closeness to the United States and Japan. The quadrilateral initiative involving India, Japan, the U.S., and Australia, has raised the spectre in Beijing of an attempt to squeeze and isolate China within an “arc of democracy.”

Moreover, rather than any positive breakthroughs in the border dispute, the boundary in recent months has emerged as the centre of considerable controversy, with the Chinese Ambassador making a public statement reasserting China’s claim to the whole of Arunachal Pradesh only days before President Hu Jintao’s India visit in November 2006. Although this was in fact a reiteration of China’s traditional claim to the State, government officials have refrained from restating historical positions in recent years, referring instead to the need to make “mutually acceptable adjustments.”

While the Chinese government sought to play down the significance of the ambassador’s comment, the matter was back in the limelight a few months ago when Beijing refused a visa to an IAS officer from Arunachal Pradesh. Reports of incursions across the Line of Control have also made regular appearances, demonstrating how far the neighbours in fact are from the strategic and cooperative partnership that is their stated goal.

The reality of Sino-Indian relations thus remains complex; a complexity that will be unaltered by Dr. Singh’s brief visit to Beijing later in the month. In addition to meeting with China’s top leadership, Dr. Singh will address scholars at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and attend a meeting of business leaders. He will also join Premier Wen Jiabao for a ceremony at the Great Hall of the People to commemorate the work of Dr. Dwarkanath Kotnis, a member of an Indian medical mission sent to China in 1938 to provide assistance in the face of the Japanese invasion.

In sum, the visit is likely to be high on symbolism but low on substance, a condition that has characterised most recent developments in bilateral ties.

For example, while the recently concluded joint army exercises were in many ways a public relations coup, military analysts say little information of actual defence value was exchanged. The focus of the exercises was on counter terrorist operations, but the cold fact remains that India’s major terrorist threat emerges from China’s old ally, Pakistan.

Again, while 2007 was celebrated by both sides as the Year of Friendship through Tourism, India was only able to attract some 67,600 visitors from China in the year, out of a total of over 35 million outbound Chinese travellers.

Experts in China say the thrust of the joint communiqué signed during Dr. Singh’s visit is likely to be on common stances on global issues pertaining to the environment and international trade negotiations. The reason they say is that bilateral issues like the border have entered a substantive phase and there is thus less scope for dramatic declarations there.

The next stage of Sino-Indian relations will in many ways be the most crucial. While ties have undoubtedly improved since the start of the new century, they have since hit a plateau. Deft diplomacy, patience and skill will be required to transition from the current emphasis on “managing” bilateral ties, to substantially strengthening the relationship. This will entail not only the balancing of competing interests but also the changing of ossified mindsets. Dr. Singh’s visit is thus best seen as one more step forward on this long and twisting road 

 Opponents must talk, Kenya’s future is at stake

 

Wangari Maathai

 

 

 

Killing, destroying property, and displacing individuals create a legacy that will haunt Kenyans down the generations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

— PHOTO: AP

Some members of the Luo tribe, displaced by the post-election violence, take refuge at a police station in Limuru, near Nairobi, Kenya on Monday.

 

The situation in my country, Kenya, is shocking and dangerous. We must act to end the violence and senseless killings, which erupted after the announcement by the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) that President Mwai Kibaki had won the presidential elections. It is important to understand that there has been longstanding underlying discontent and mistrust among some ethnic communities, which has been fed by generations of politicians.

The current political situation had its genesis when President Moi stepped down in 2002 and anointed Uhuru Kenyatta as his successor. Senior politicians who hoped to succeed Mr. Moi left his party and joined Mr. Kibaki, creating the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC). In December 2002, Mr. Uhuru Kenyatta was defeated and the NARC came to power with Mr. Kibaki as President.

In opposition, the NARC’s two constituent groups had signed an agreement to share power when victory was secured. This was not honoured, and deep disappointment and discontent led to divisions. In 2005, these caused the defeat of a government-backed draft constitution. In the 2007 election, the Kibaki-led camp campaigned as the Party of National Unity, while the other camp, led by Raila Odinga, became the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Both were strongly backed by their ethnic communities, with deep mistrust on either side.

Claims of rigging

 

 

Before the results were announced, claims of rigging and irregularities were widespread among ODM supporters; at least one electoral commissioner also raised this charge. After Mr. Kibaki was declared the winner, the ODM claimed it had been robbed of victory, and election observers (local and international) also admitted irregularities. When Mr. Kibaki rejected ODM demands to step down, members of communities that mainly supported the party turned on those communities perceived to have voted for Mr. Kibaki. These have included the Kikuyus, Kisiis, and Luhyas. Hundreds of people have been killed and thousands displaced, and properties have been burned and looted.

There is frustration among ODM supporters because they believe victory was denied them. We now have a great divide in the country that can only be resolved through truth and reconciliation. Given the admission from the ECK chairman that the election tallying process was irregular, we should have the votes recounted by an independent body, or we should rerun the elections. To expect Kenyans to accept the flawed results would be unfair and undemocratic.

An equally important step is for the two leaders to engage in dialogue. It is challenging for some to exercise restraint, but greatness is demonstrated at times like this.

The country’s future depends on how the ODM leadership shapes its reactions and how the government responds. We need political maturity and respect for our laws.

Part of the way forward could also be a power-sharing arrangement, which should be constitutional and put in place by parliament. It would allow the political and economic affairs of the country to return to normality within the shortest possible time.

Even as political leaders play their role, citizens should refrain from violence. All 42 communities in Kenya are bound by geography and history to live as neighbours. Killing, destroying property and displacing our brothers and sisters creates a legacy that will haunt our children and their children. Let us stand up for each other, irrespective of our ethnic backgrounds and political persuasions. Injustice to one is injustice to all of us. If we, individually and collectively, are not the conscience of our country, then who is? — ©Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2008

(Wangari Maathai, the 2004 Nobel peace laureate, was MP for Kenya’s Tetu constituency from 2002-07.)

Newspapers’ response to the digital challenge

 

Roy Greenslade

 

 

 

Different platforms and round-the-clock reporting are the main challenges.

 

 

 

 

 

Newspapers are playing a game of digital leapfrog. One paper does not merely catch up when another jumps ahead. It usually overtakes by taking advantage of technological developments its rival was unable to embrace. There is no possibility of standing still.

In a sense, the online revolution is like a train journey without a destination. As soon as one paper arrives at a station that had once appeared to be a terminus, another title has built a new line and sped onwards.

For the moment, given the need to keep on printing while simultaneously uploading, it means driving as fast as possible towards a brave new world while keeping the engines running at full power in the old — but still lucrative and popular — world of newsprint.

In Britain, regional newspapers, as so often, have been in the forefront of this cultural change. Their reporters and subeditors have been embracing multi-platform journalism for several years. The national press in Britain has been slower off the mark, but they are forging ahead now. Editors, naturally enough, tend to justify the merging of print and digital staffs by talking of the journalistic imperative. But they are aware that there has been a commercial impulse too. With falling revenues from both circulation and advertising, it does not make financial sense to employ two sets of overlapping staff.

Controversial logic

 

 

A similar, if somewhat controversial, financial logic has also dictated a reconsideration of the staffing requirements across seven days.

One of digital transmission’s greatest benefits is that it allows for the merging of staff on daily and Sunday titles in a way that proved unachievable 20 years ago. Some call it another wonder of the web; others call it job cuts under a digital cloak. But integration is about much more than internal office structures. It is really about the creation of a new journalistic culture, a method of working that reflects both the technological possibilities and the demands of a wised up, increasingly media-savvy public.

Indeed, it is also about the response to a new public because newspapers are no longer serving a geographically distinct area.

The challenge is to provide 24/7 news, to offer a minute-by-minute, round-the-clock news service. This can only be achieved through integration, by journalists responding to the demand of filing for website and the paper, by them bringing into play audio and video material whenever relevant.

In my visits to the offices of The Financial Times, The Times, and The Telegraph (all in London) — where there are different forms of integration — I was struck by the way in which their journalists have grasped, or are beginning to grasp, the benefits of integration, not only at a practical level but as a philosophy. Every executive I met was at pains to point out how the mindset of their editorial staffs has changed. They are no longer troubled by that old argument about whether a story should be web-first or print-first. With their news editors they are developing an instinct about the appropriate way to publish.

One persistent criticism by sceptics is that journalists are being asked to do too much. Again, that’s not what I discovered. As far as I could ascertain, journalists are grasping the opportunities offered by online publishing to write more freely. There is much more fulfilment involved in writing a developing story when you discover that there is no longer any need to cut it to ribbons to fit a space.

Updating for newsprint editions tended to be dispiriting because some material would inevitably be lost. Now it can be accommodated without any loss of detail. Now journalists are realising that integration is not only proving much less painless than expected, it is releasing them from the straitjacket of the single 24-hour deadline. — ©Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2008  

 Desperate measures

 

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto drove discredited Pakistan’s discredited dictator, Pervez Musharraf, and his puppet Cabinet into a seemingly precarious position. Under domestic and international pressure, he has sought to create an impression of being reasonable. First, he had the Election Commission ‘consult’ all the political parties before announcing its decision to put off parliamentary and provincial assembly elections by a modest 40 days. Then h e inducted Scotland Yard into the investigation of the assassination, to neutralise the demand of the Pakistan People’s Party that a wider probe should be conducted by an international commission under the auspices of the United Nations Security Council. This is the third time in Pakistan’s history that Scotland Yard detectives have been brought in to assist investigations into high-profile assassinations; and, unfortunately, their efforts produced nothing of consequence on the previous occasions, in 1951 and 1996. As shown by the frustrating pace of the investigation into the assassination of Lebanon’s former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, external agencies work against the odds in complicated situations on alien soil. With conspiracy theories flying around, a large number of Pakistanis seem to believe that their intelligence services were involved in the assassination. Suspicions on this score have only been strengthened by the way the Musharraf regime kept changing its narrative on how Benazir died. At first it came up with an ‘intercept’ pointing to an Al Qaeda plot featuring the Taliban warlord in Waziristan, Baitullah Mehsud, who denied any involvement. Then it trotted out the story of death by sun-roof fracture, with neither bullet nor explosive hitting the target. This yarn collapsed after DawnNews aired footage that established that a gun was fired by an apparent sharpshooter from about two metres away and that Benazir collapsed through the sun-roof into the car before the suicide bomber exploded. Scotland Yard certainly has its work cut out considering that much of the evidence at the assassination site was washed away through ‘inefficiency’ (as President Musharraf has claimed) or worse (as the PPP has alleged), and that the legal requirement of a post mortem was waived (at the request of Benazir’s husband, Asif Ali Zardari).

The postponement of the poll also smacks of an attempt to make the best of a bad situation. From all accounts, the PPP appeared poised to sweep to power on a sympathy wave much as the Congress did after the Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi assassinations. Such an outcome would hardly have been welcomed by a Musharraf regime that was clearly uneasy about the United States-brokered deal it had made with Benazir. All opposition forces in Pakistan expressed the apprehension that the government would use the assassination as an excuse to postpone the election well beyond the scheduled date of January 8. The electoral prospects of the ‘King’s Party,’ the Pakistan Muslim League (Qaid-e-Azam), which seemed hopeless in the wake of the assassination, could only improve if sympathy for the PPP abated, dissent cropped up within that party, and the opposition’s show of unity weakened during a prolonged hiatus. The Musharraf regime’s footing appears to be weak since it could put off the election only to February 18.

 Abolish the death penalty

 

In a ground-breaking move, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) has voted to place a moratorium on executions, with 104 member states favouring the resolution and 54 opposing it. As a result, the death penalty could be abolished de facto even in countries that retain it on their statute books. A UNGA resolution of this kind has no binding legal force but this one is a significant advance over the earlier initiatives that merely proclaimed universal abolition to be a desirable objective. The heated debate that preceded the adoption of the resolution reminds us that a huge amount of work needs to be done before this cruel, inhuman, and degrading punishment becomes history. Some countries harped on the fact that the death penalty was sanctioned in international law and sought to depict the attempt at establishing a universal moratorium as interference in the judicial systems of member states. The appeal to national sovereignty is an all-too-familiar response from some developing countries. Other opponents of the UNGA resolution invoked cultural and religious practices in justification of retaining capital punishment.

Data available for 2006 show that 133 countries have done away with the death penalty in law or in practice. Over that year, 25 countries carried out executions and 91 per cent of the known executions were the work of six countries — China, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United States (in that order). Confirmed legal executions declined by more than 25 per cent between 2005 and 2006. The New Jersey Assembly recently replaced the death penalty with a sentence for life without parole — the first such law adopted since the 1976 reinstatement of the death penalty in the U.S. In India, the death penalty is supposed to be handed down only in the rarest of rare cases. But these are modest mercies. The time has certainly come for humankind to do away with the barbaric penalty and India needs to join the ranks of those who have seen the light.

 Russia-Iran ties on the upswing

 

Vladimir Radyuhin

 

 

 

Vladimir Putin has seized the opportunity offered by the changing landscape around Iran to upgrade bilateral relations across the board.

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidation of strategic ties between Russia and Iran was one of the most significant events in 2007. A breakthrough came when Vadimir Putin visited Tehran in October to become the first Russian leader since Joseph Stalin to set foot on Iranian soil. Mr. Putin is reported to have told Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei that Russia was ready to “expand ties without limitations” with Iran. This offer closely resonated with a proposal to form a strategi c alliance against common enemies that the Ayatollah made to the then Russian Security Council Secretary, Igor Ivanov, when he visited Tehran in February 2007.

It took Moscow eight months to respond because it insisted on synchronising the all-round expansion and deepening of Russian-Iranian ties with Iran’s steps to answer the outstanding questions on its nuclear programme. Mr. Putin did not avail himself of a long-standing invitation to visit Tehran till after Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) agreed in August on a “work plan” to clarify Tehran’s past centrifuge development work.

A few weeks after Mr. Putin’s historic visit, Iran handed over to the IAEA details on its P-2 centrifuge work, prompting IAEA Director Mohamed El Baradei to say Iran was making “good progress” towards resolving the outstanding questions. On December 3, the U.S. released a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report that cleared Iran of the charge of pursuing a nuclear weapons programme. Significantly, the report which signalled Washington’s retreat from the military option, had been kept under wraps for over a year.

On the same day, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became the first Iranian leader to attend the Gulf Cooperation Council summit in Doha. The next day, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Saeed Jalili was in Moscow to meet Mr. Putin. Mr. Jalili told the Russian President that the Iranian leadership was committed to building “long-term, strategic and future-oriented” relations with Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after the meeting that the Iranian envoy had pledged to answer all outstanding questions of the IAEA “in the nearest time possible.”

On December 13, Russia and Iran reached an agreement on a timetable for the completion of the Bushehr nuclear plant, which had been dogged by repeated delays and a row over payment. On December 16, Russia shipped the first consignment of uranium fuel to Bushehr. On December 17, the Al Qaeda leader — number two — Ayman Al Zawahiri denounced Iran in a video for backing off from its support to Iraqi Shia attacks on U.S. troops. In the last days of 2007, a second batch of fuel rods was delivered to the Iranian plant. By the end of February, the reactor will be fully stocked with fuel needed to start it up. Russian officials said this could happen before the end of 2008.

The sequence of events shows that Mr. Putin seized the opportunity offered by the changing landscape around Iran and worked towards consolidating the changes. Russia moved to upgrade bilateral relations with Iran across the board.

Iranian reports said the two countries were discussing 130 economic projects worth over $100 billion and aimed at boosting bilateral trade from the current $2 billion to $200 billion in the next 10 years. Energy will account for much of the planned growth in ties. Russia and Iran hold between them about 20 per cent of the global oil reserves and 42 per cent of natural gas. Russian oil and gas companies are already involved in Iranian hydrocarbon projects, and the Russian-Iranian trade commission at its meeting in Moscow on December 13 discussed plans to set up a joint gas venture to explore deposits in the Persian Gulf and Central Asia. The JV could undertake, according to Russian energy officials, the construction of the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline.

Energy axis

 

 

An energy axis between Russia and Iran could eventually lead to the establishment of a gas OPEC lobbied by Tehran and favourably viewed by Moscow. This will have a profound impact on strategic equations in the region. Russia is keen on directing Iran’s gas exports to Asia and keeping the European market for itself. Energy underpins an emerging strategic triangle comprising Russia, Iran and China. The latter has signed multibillion-dollar energy deals to buy Iranian oil and liquefied natural gas and may also be at the receiving end of proposed gas pipelines from Iran. If the IPI project comes through, it can be extended to China; otherwise a Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline scheduled to be built before the end of 2008 can be connected to Iran (this will merely require reversing current gas flows from Turkmenistan to Iran via an existing pipeline between the two countries).

Russia has agreed to strengthen Iran’s military muscle. Following his talks in Tehran last month, head of the Russian Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation (FSMTC) Mikhail Dmitriyev said defence ties between the two countries “reinforce stability in the region.”

Russia has also encouraged Iran’s deeper involvement in multilateral arrangements in the region. Moscow and Tehran see eye to eye on many regional issues. Both are opposed to U.S. plans to build oil and gas pipelines on the Caspian Sea bed bypassing Russia and Iran, and both want the sustainable energy security in Central Asia and the Caspian to be the prerogative of the region’s nations. The Caspian Summit in Tehran on October 15-16, which provided a convenient pretext for Mr. Putin’s visit to Iran, supported Iran’s initiative to set up an economic cooperation organisation of the Caspian nations. The new body will hold its first meeting in the Russian city of Astrakhan on the Caspian Sea later this year. In a major boost for Tehran, the Caspian states ruled out the use of their territories for attack against Iran.

Russia has strongly supported Iran’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Addressing a New Year press conference in Moscow, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov revealed that the SCO will “soon” end its moratorium on expansion and consider admission of new members. He made it clear that Iran, which has an observer status in the SCO, would be a prime candidate for full membership. He said Iran’s involvement in the SCO was essential for “effective solution of problems.”

Mr. Putin’s offer of strategic partnership with Iran has a rider: it must renounce the nuclear weapons option. Following a new round of infighting in the Iranian leadership, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, a moderate close to Ayatollah Khamenei, was replaced by a former member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Saeed Jalili, a hard-line ally of President Ahmadinejad. However, Tehran’s continued cooperation with IAEA indicated that moderates have gained the upper hand, at least for now.

Strategic tie-up with Russia is too tempting an option for Iran to turn down. With Russia’s help, it can advance its cherished goal of achieving regional supremacy and extending its strategic reach to Central Asia and beyond. At the same time, Iran wants to keep the nuclear option open. Moscow has firmly linked further defence and nuclear energy cooperation with Iran to progress in its interaction with IAEA.

On December 23, Iranian Defence Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar announced that Russia would supply Iran deadly S-300 anti-missile systems, which will dramatically increase its ability to repulse air or missile attacks by the U.S. or Israel. Russian defence sources confirmed the report but the country’s top weapons export authority, FSMTC, issued a denial. However, it did not deny the deal as such but said: “The delivery of S-300 air defence missiles … is not on the agenda and is not being discussed with the Iranian side at this moment.” Once again, Moscow is dangling the carrot. It remains to be seen if Mr. Putin’s preferred successor, Dmitry Medvedev, will display the same diplomatic skills as Mr. Putin has done in dealing with Iran.

Russia’s strategic rapprochement with Iran stands out in stark contrast with New Delhi’s stagnant relations with Tehran. This may be a further indication that New Delhi is drifting away from Moscow. India has developed cold feet on the IPI project and the State Bank of India has banned letters of credit for Iranian firms in support of U.S.’ unilateral sanctions on Iran. Iran figured prominently in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s discussions with Mr. Putin during their summit in Moscow last November, according to Indian officials.

Considering the fact that Russia has a vital stake in getting India on board on Iran, Mr. Putin must have offered Dr. Singh his frank reading of the situation: the U.S. overreach in Iraq offers a unique chance for making strategic gains in the region by forging closer ties with Iran. Has India chosen to play up to the U.S. and miss the chance?

 At times like this, nations are forged

 

Binyavanga Wainaina

 

 

 

 

 

---

The Kenyan state has run out of steam. Only a new constitution can

bring together its minorities.

---

 

 

I was in Lamu 10 days ago, a slow gentle place, cut off from most of the muscular and modern tempers of the rest of Kenya. I was telling off Patrick, a young Giriama man, for vanishing with my money for a whole day while I remained without mobile phone credit. He was partying somewhere. He finds it very difficult to understand why such a thing would make me so upset. There is a rhythm to things in Lamu and why do you upcountry people and white people, who to us are really the same people, move so aggressively against the tide of things?

While we were talking, a young Kenyan woman doctor joined us and we started talking politics. When she left, he asked me if the woman was a Gikuyu (often spelled Kikuyu). I said no. He said, “Yeye ni mjanja sana.” I told him she was a Luo. He was confused for a second. Then he nodded, and said again, “Ni mjanja kama mzungu.”

What he was saying was, “She is very ‘cunning’ or ‘clever’, like a white person.” And his association with this “cunning” is that this is a very Gikuyu thing, and a very upcountry thing. He did not say, or mean, “wise,” or “educated” or even “intelligent.”

In the 1960s, when the coastal strip was parcelled out to Kenyatta’s cronies, the Giriama — Patrick’s people — found themselves squatters in their own land, as Swahili families took over their traditional lands. As the coast stagnated, the flood of upcountry people began: educated, aggressive, and entrepreneurial, they have come to dominate the economy of the region. Now things are rumbling, as the Orange Democratic Movement proposes a more devolved government — and people in the area interpret this as upcountry people being sent back home, so they can occupy the economy. When Mwai Kibaki rigged himself into power last Sunday as we watched on television, the violence began, against Gikuyu and other upcountry tribes, as people took their political aspirations into their own hands.

A few days later I try to buy some more credit for my phone. I stop at a Gikuyu woman’s shop, and she does not have enough mobile phone credit. Her assistant laughs at me when I ask for a cold coke. “Have you any idea how we got supplies today? People were landing here shell-shocked with bicycles stacked up with bread and sodas ... don’t even ask how they got them.” He turns to chat with the small group of customers around him, talking about the day, sharing really, in a very warm way, a thing we are all involved with. There was nothing partisan in his talk.

He turned to his boss, a woman in her fifties, conservative with an angular face and a no-nonsense expression, and says to her: “He! Mama, kesho nitakimbia town mzima nitafute Celtel yaa ndugu yangu hapa. (Mama, tomorrow I will run around all over town to find Celtel credit for our brother here.)”

There is something jarring. I don’t know what for a moment, then I realise he is speaking to his boss, a fellow Gikuyu, in Kiswahili. She replies to him in Kiswahili. This is unusual. They both laugh at something, nervously. She turns to me and says something she has never said before. She tells me, in Kiswahili, to go to our neighbour, he has some Celtel credit. She says this, as we all know Gikuyus are being killed in the Rift Valley and Kisumu. ODM and Mr. Kibaki’s PNU — the protagonists who have split the country in half after a close and badly counted election — have removed all goodwill, and we find we are tentative with each other.

I try to examine some of these interactions. Different languages represent different aspects of the national character. Every Kenyan is a split personality: authority, trajectory, international citizen in English; national brother, in Kiswahili; and content villager or nostalgic urbanite in our mother tongues. Our mother tongues live in an imagined past and occupy an incoherent present, and when a threat seems to come, and the state seems to be part of the threat, we are able only to activate other nationhoods as acts of war — the Gikuyu, my ethnic group, do not meet as a nation to examine their economy; they start to agitate, often provoked by the political elite to get the “nation” ready to encounter “the other” out there.

In this part of town, all kinds of Kenyans live — city English people making their way home, villagers and their produce on the streets, and the crowds of people being gentle to each other in Kiswahili. So many times you hear about somebody who was living another life in another language, and when he died, whole families came crawling out of the woodwork. Widows fighting next to the lowering coffin.

Season of hell

 

 

In the future, when we look back to this short season of hell, we will ask ourselves if the shutdown of all media was the right thing. For more even than the symbolic beheading of the state by Mr. Kibaki on live television, the ceasing of live broadcasts on all our media was an announcement that Kenya was closed. And the text messages that followed were announcing that we are on our own, and that in the dark, your neighbour is coming to get you.

What we are seeing is simple. The state as we know it has run out of steam. The winner-takes-all Westminster system we have cannot carry our aspirations. Even as blood is shed in Eldoret and Mombasa, Kenya’s various ethnicities are now stranded in their own paranoia for lack of a viable national structure and process. We have known it for years. This is why a new constitution has been on the top of the list of political priorities for most Kenyans for 10 years and more.

We are 45 years old this year. Like many nations, this is our moment of truth. There is a way out of this — if both leaders act like statesmen, sit together and do what is necessary legally to have an interim power-sharing arrangement whose sole task is to create a structure that can carry us along into a new election, with a new or amended constitution that ensures that, whoever wins or loses, the whole country and all its minorities and interests are carried.

A strong economy

 

 

We are a strong economy in Africa. We have a well-trained army, and police force and civil service. We have some of the most competent technocrats in any developing country. We even have a lot of goodwill across ethnic and class lines, and if we act now, things will improve. All the foreign correspondent stuff about “atavistic hatreds” and such is not true. For every place where there are things burning, there is a recent historical problem that has got to do with big political games, by big political leaders.

We all want peace, and all civil leaders should speak loudly to their own constituencies. Baying from across the bridge does not do much. Nations are forged through situations like this. Leaders are made. We have maybe been play-acting nationhood. Do we want a common state? Do we really want this? The time has come to decide. — ©Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2008

(Binyavanga Wainaina is editor of Kwani magazine; his memoir, Discovering Home, is to be published by Granta in 2009.)

 Whose fault?

 

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf’s statement that Benazir Bhutto was partly to blame for her assassination as she threw security precautions to the winds (Jan. 4) seems reasonable. He is right in pointing out that it was because Benazir ignored his warnings despite an earlier attempt on her life that she was killed. She should not have emerged from the sunroof of her vehicle. That made the assailants’ task easy. She made the same mistake as Rajiv Gandhi.

T.T.V. Raman,

Tirupati

General (retd.) Musharraf, who has weathered all political storms since he came to power, will, in all likelihood, come out of this controversy too. For the PPP leader, the election was not worth risking her life. A boycott of elections by all political parties and people would have brought the desired result slowly but surely. How long could Washington have supported a discredited regime?

Benazir’s ambition to become Prime Minister for the third time consolidated dictatorship in civvies. Pakistan lost a golden opportunity to usher in democracy. From the beginning, it is Pakistan’s political leaders who have helped the army consolidate its grip over governance. Military generals, retired or serving, will continue to rule Pakistan.

Capt. T. Raju (retd.),

Secunderabad

True, Benazir was partly responsible for her death as she emerged from her car. But it does not absolve the Pakistan government of the lapses and loopholes in her security. How did the assassin manage to get so close to her vehicle by jumping the security ring? Why was she not provided with greater security as an attempt had already been made on her life? Why did the government not insist on a post mortem? Why was the road at the blast site washed down?

Aalok Patel,

New Delhi

The authorities have committed too many blunders in handling Benazir’s assassination. To begin with, her body does not seem to have been examined properly by an independent panel of doctors. Any medical professional can differentiate between a bullet injury and a fracture. So the official confusion over the cause of her death seems strange.

Secondly, the site of the assassination was immediately washed. So there is little chance of getting any forensic clue. Can the Scotland Yard carry out a just and proper inquest?

S. Singh,

Rajpura

 Dynastic politics

 

When the son or daughter of a lawyer, actor, or film director entering the same profession does not attract so much criticism, one wonders why politicians as a class are blamed when a son, daughter or any other relative of a politician succeeds him or her after death. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari may be young, a student, but that alone should not disqualify him from stepping into his mother’s shoes. Let democracy give a chance to the successor before condemning the choice and procedure.

M. Ramankutty,

Tripunithura

Democracy and dynastic politics do not vibe. Wives, sons, grandsons, daughters, nephews and nieces are nominated to political posts, whether or not they deserve it. In South Asian nations, particularly India, the practice is becoming rampant. The victim is democracy. People alone can rescue democracy from being bequeathed by wills, written or unwritten.

A.V. Ramana Rao,

Chennai

I wonder whether any other country would have seen a father, daughter and her son becoming Prime Minister and their other family members becoming party presidents. Can the Congress ever question dynastic succession in other parties when it has led by example? From Punjab to Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala, it is well rooted. The communists and the BJP have so far remained exceptions to this culture but temptations leave none. The BJP seems to be falling a prey to dynastic succession.

V. Kameswaran,

Chennai

 Gujarat elections

 

Ramaswamy R. Iyer’s reflections on the Gujarat elections (Jan. 5) deserve serious attention. Winning elections through sheer rhetoric that appeals to parochialism and vanity is a dangerous trend, set by Narendra Modi. Unless we realise its potential danger, it will spread to other States too. Then the questions that Mr. Iyer asks about Gujarat will have to be reworded: “What has happened to India? Is it still redeemable?”

Tomichan Matheikal,

New Delhi

The question raised in the article is also relevant in the context of the recent violence in Orissa. Gujarat is still redeemable if the Congress takes a stern stand on secularism as taken by the CPI(M) on Orissa. The Congress leadership should categorically reject Hindutva.

K.C. Cherian,

Kottayam The article argues that while Gujarat 2002 and Delhi 1984 were both deeply horrifying and profoundly disturbing, they cannot be compared. The victims of the 1984 riots have not been rehabilitated even after 23 years and the perpetrators have got away. If the Congress and the Delhi populace could move ahead and put the riots behind them, why doubt the Gujaratis’ ability to do the same? It is not proper to question the Gujarati psyche on the basis of the electoral results. I would like to remind the author that there were riots in Gujarat even before 2002, during the Congress regime. The 1969 riots were worse.

P. Venaktasubramanian,

Chennai

Concerns such as those expressed in the article have existed over Gujarat and other places — Delhi, Meerut, Moradabad, Bhiwandi — at different times throughout the six decades following independence. To fault the Gujarati psyche for the recent election result risks alienation of the community. What the Gujarat electorate seems to have done is to put 2002 where it deserves to be — five years backwards — and look to the future. The reasons the Congress lost were it could not think beyond 2002 and conceive a vision better than Mr. Modi’s. Election results should be accepted gracefully and the electorate’s sentiment acknowledged.

Devraj Sambasivan,

Alappuzha

The Gujarat election was fought on only one agenda — that Mr. Modi was responsible for the 2002 riots and he should not be re-elected. This was aided and abetted by many agencies in India. The electorate thought otherwise and elected Mr. Modi as its leader again. His opponents should accept that the common man knows what is best for him.

V.R. Janardhanam,

Chennai

 A preventable tragedy

 

With precise intelligence available on their timing and target, the terrorists who attacked the Central Reserve Police Force camp at Rampur on Tuesday ought to have walked into a trap. Instead, eight men are dead, and the lives of their families scarred forever, in a tragedy brought about by sheer incompetence. Despite warnings that an attack was imminent — intelligence that was the fruit of investments made in enhancing the technical espionage capabilities of the Re search and Analysis Wing — the CRPF did nothing to beef up its perimeter security arrangements. Incredibly, officers at the threatened facility did not even bother to cancel or postpone their New Year festivities. A thoroughfare that runs through the camp — the existence of which is itself a gross violation of security protocol — was closed but then reopened to placate irate local residents. In the event, the Lashkar-e-Taiba assault team that carried out the terrorist attack used the thoroughfare to drive into the camp and drive out again, its mission accomplished.

India’s security apparatus responds well when beset by crisis. However, successful security depends not on crisis-time creativity but on the disciplined and effective implementation of mundane, everyday protocols. Potential targets must be secured as if terror strikes were imminent. Here the Indian system’s record is appalling. Despite years of painful experience, sensitive government installations in New Delhi, including the headquarters of some of India’s key military organisations and covert services, are defended in a manner that would be considered unconscionably negligent in many parts of the world. Most airports, railway stations, and bus terminals have no protection against car bombings or suicide squad attacks. Successive governments have failed to push the nuts-and-bolts institutional upgrades needed to enhance India’s security. Across the world, experience shows, terrorist strikes are prevented more often by the rigorous implementation of modern security measures than by pinpoint intelligence. Several countries have put in place systems to monitor purchases of chemicals that can be used to manufacture explosives. They have created online databases to facilitate real-time verification of fingerprints, identity documents, and criminal records by local police. They have invested seriously in police training and forensic investigation capabilities. They have routinely rehearsed and tested procedures for securing public facilities and government offices. On every one of these counts, India’s record is poor. Sadly, few politicians in or out of power seem interested in even understanding the problem, let alone addressing it.

 Gujarat elections: some reflections

 

Ramaswamy R. Iyer

 

 

 

What should worry the country is the change in the Gujarati psyche. What has happened to Gujarat? Is it still redeemable?

 

 

 

 

 

 

— Photo: Sandeep Saxena

Narendra Modi after meeting the former Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, in New Delhi on December 29.

 

Narendra Modi’s success in the recent Gujarat elections has been described as a great victory for him; as a shot in the arm for the Bharatiya Janata Party; as a vindication of Mr. Modi against unfair vilification; as a serious setback for the Congress, with possible consequences for the nuclear deal; and so on.

The primary concern of this article is not with the electoral prospects of the BJP or the Congress. Whether the victory was Mr. Modi’s personal triumph or a major success for the party, and if the former be the case, what its implications are for internal party politics and for party leadership, will not be gone into here. Equally, what its implications are for the Congress party leadership, whether the possibility of a mid-term poll has receded, and whether the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal will be shelved, will not be discussed.

Charge of code violation

 

 

Let us also consider and put aside another (secondary) issue, namely, the Election Commission’s pronouncements on the charge of violation of the electoral code of conduct by Mr. Modi and Sonia Gandhi. Two points need to be made here. First, the Commission’s censure of Mr. Modi may have been overshadowed by the electoral victory, but it would be quite wrong to treat that pronouncement as no longer relevant merely because Mr. Modi has won. Secondly, the charge that the Commission has not been “even-handed” as between the two parties, made by Mr. Modi and by the BJP, is strange. Why is the Commission required to be even-handed if it finds that the offence is greater in one case than in the other? It is indeed possible to argue with some justification that the Commission was excessively concerned about appearing to be even-handed, and that the issue of a notice to and the passing of an order on Ms Gandhi was not really called for. If, in fact, she believed that the events of 2002 were a disgrace to Gujarat and to India, and that the state was complicit in that horror, (and that view is held by many), it was not only right to say so to the electorate but a duty. The expression “merchants of death” that she used was not personal vilification but a criticism of a grave failure of rajya dharma (recall Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s exhortation to Mr. Modi at an early stage). If this understanding is correct, the Commission’s judgment that she had violated the code of conduct was questionable. But leaving that aside, the more important question is whether a censure by the Commission has any meaning. The Commission can disqualify candidates, countermand elections and adjudicate election disputes. All these are practical measures. What practical consequence does a censure have?

We are also asked by some: why talk only about Gujarat 2002 and not about Delhi 1984? Here again the plea is for “even-handedness.” Undoubtedly, both Gujarat 2002 and Delhi 1984 were deeply horrifying events and profoundly disturbing in their implications. In both cases, what might have started as mob frenzy became an organised pogrom targeting a particular community. In both, the police and the state machinery in general either failed to perform their duties or were actively complicit in the violence. In both, the guilty remain at large. In scale, duration, and the number of people killed, Delhi 1984 was possibly worse than Gujarat 2002. However, in comparing the two events and trying to be “fair” and “even-handed,” we fail to note two points. First, it is meaningless to compare the two horrors; abhorrence, grief, and shame are the appropriate responses in both cases. One horror does not mitigate the other. Secondly, while some politicians and groups might have been actively involved in Delhi 1984, the Hindus of Delhi as a whole were not complicit in the anti-Sikh violence, nor did they condone it. Of course, the state was complicit, and ipso facto the citizens could be said to be indirectly complicit too, but we cannot say that the madness of those few days had social sanction. In Gujarat, one fears that the horrors of 2002 had, apart from direct participation by some, widespread social acquiescence among Hindus. In Germany, the people renounced the Nazi madness, undertook severe self-criticism and experienced remorse. One is not aware of any similar development in Gujarat; perhaps it will happen in due course. On the other hand, there is anger at “Gujarat bashing.”

In the light of the foregoing, what does the recent Gujarat election mean? Three observations are warranted.

(1) There is no doubt that Mr. Modi has won a remarkable victory. In the absence of complaints to the contrary, the elections must be presumed to have been free and fair. This is a demonstration of Indian democracy and must be accepted as such. We may not rejoice at the result. Democracy does not guarantee that only the sanest and noblest will be elected. In this case, a person about whom many thinkers in the country have profound misgivings has been elected. Our celebration of Indian democracy has to be tempered by the realisation that this can happen.

(2) Has the election vindicated him? Was he being unduly demonised? Were we all wrong about Gujarat 2002? Must we change our thinking? The answer is a clear ‘no.’ Our judgment about Mr. Modi is indeed a matter for examination, but the election results have no bearing on that examination. Either Mr. Modi was the demon that he was said to be, or he was not. If he was, it was right to describe him so; there is then no question of demon-ising, much less “unduly.” If he was not, it was simply wrong to have so described him. What is the truth? We can draw our inferences from a study of what happened in 2002, the manner in which the Gujarat Government responded to the outbreak of violence, the Chief Minister’s role in that context, the inferences that can be drawn from the Tehelka tapes (if they are authentic), his impugned election speeches, and the Election Commission’s finding on them. Plenty of material is available: reports by persons such as Harsh Mander, Swami Agnivesh, the National Human Rights Commission, and so on, and now the Tehelka tapes. What is needed is a proper investigation. Investigations and consequential action must not be put off merely because he is back as Chief Minister with a strong popular mandate. Those who boasted on camera about criminal actions must be brought to book. State failure and possible complicity must be looked into, and the officials concerned proceeded against. If the trail leads to the Chief Minister, that too must be followed up and action taken. The election changes none of this. One has to state this obvious position because media reports seem to take it for granted that the elections have indeed changed everything; they have begun to portray Mr. Modi (earlier excoriated as a villain) in admiring, flattering terms as a hero.

(3) Finally, what matters is not the future of Mr. Modi but that of Gujarat. It would be comforting to think that the people of Gujarat have voted for good governance and for personal efficiency and integrity, but that would be a delusion. Good governance — or perceptions of good governance — may have played a part, but the people were also responding to Mr. Modi’s roaring Hindutva rhetoric, and to his appeal to Gujarati pride.

There may be some — perhaps not a small number — who think otherwise, but their voices are not heard.

What should worry us, then, is not whether Mr. Modi is a demon, but the change in the Gujarati psyche. What has happened to Gujarat? Is it still redeemable?

 Benazir murder may isolate Islamists

 

Shashi Tharoor

 

 

 

The former Pakistan Prime Minister’s greatest legacy may be that the Islamists suspected of her killing will be further isolated from the army and power.

 

 

 

 

 

Benazir Bhutto has never looked so good. This week has seen the international press apotheosising the telegenic Pakistani politician. But the widely expressed view that Benazir epitomised Pakistan’s hopes for democracy, which have now perished with her, seriously overstates what she represented and the implications of her demise.

The principal consequence of Benazir’s death is the setback it has dealt to the United States-inspired plan to anoint her, after not-quite free-and-fair elections, as the acceptable civilian face of the continuing rule of Pervez Musharraf. The calculations were clear: President Musharraf was a valuable ally of the West against the Islamist threat in the region, but his continuing indefinitely to rule Pakistan as a military dictator was becoming an embarrassment. The former Chief Martial Law Administrator had to doff his uniform — long overdue, since he was three years past the retirement age for any general — and find a credible civilian partner to help make a plausible case for democratisation.

The chosen one

 

 

Benazir, after years of exile in Dubai and London, was the chosen one. She was well-spoken, well-networked in Washington and London, and passionate in her avowals of secular moderation. The other exiled civilian former Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, was none of these things, and having been the victim of General Musharraf’s coup, was considerably less inclined to cooperate with his defenestrator.

Benazir’s first two stints had, however, been inglorious. From 1988-90, she had been overawed by the military establishment, whose appointed President duly dismissed her from office on plausible charges of corruption, mainly involving her husband, who had acquired the nickname “Mr 10 per cent.” Her second innings (1993-96) was, if anything, worse: charges of rampant peculation — and administrative ad-hockery — mounted, even as her avowedly moderate government orchestrated the creation of the Taliban in neighbouring Afghanistan. This time it was a President of Pakistan from her own party, one whose election she herself had engineered, who felt obliged to dismiss her. To assume that the third time would have been any different requires a leap of faith explicable only by the mounting international anxiety over President Musharraf’s fraying rule.

But Benazir’s true merit lay in the absence of plausible alternatives. She was no great democrat — as her will, naming her 19-year-old son to inherit her party, has confirmed. The Bhuttoist ethos is a uniquely Pakistani combination of aristocratic feudalism and secular populism. To her, democracy was a means to power, not a philosophy of politics. But the same was true of the other contenders in Pakistan’s political space — the conservative Punjabi bourgeoisie represented by Mr. Sharif, the moderate pro-militarists grouped around President Musharraf, the deeply intolerant Islamists, and the assorted regionalist and particularist parties whose appeal is limited to specific provinces.

All-powerful military

 

 

Democrats around the world may well believe the Pakistani people deserve better, but it is difficult to imagine a viable alternative to such a scenario. The central fact of Pakistani politics has always been the power of the military, which has ruled the country for 32 of its 60 years of existence. In other countries, the state has an army; in Pakistan, the army has a state. The military can be found not only in all the key offices of government but also running real estate and import-export ventures and petrol pumps and factories.

Retired generals head most of the country’s universities and think-tanks. The proportion of national resources devoted to the military is perhaps the highest in the world. Every once in a while, a great surge of disillusionment with the Generals pours out into the streets and a “democratic” leader is voted into office, but the civilian experiment always ends badly and the military returns to power — to widespread relief.

The elections that Benazir might have won have now been postponed, but they will take place eventually, because they represent the only safety valve in the pressure cooker that Pakistan is today. Her party will benefit from a sympathy vote, but in the absence of a charismatic leader it will be obliged to come to an accommodation with the Generals. Despite widespread anger at President Musharraf’s failure to protect Benazir, this may actually be the best outcome for Pakistan.

The great danger in Pakistan has always been in the risk of a mullah-military coalition. The prospect of the uniformed rulers of this nuclear-armed state being infused with the zealotry of the Islamic fanatics among their compatriots has always sent shudders down the spines of the world’s chancelleries. The death of Benazir, and the backlash it has engendered, has made that less likely for now, and that may remain her most significant legacy. — ©Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2008

(Shashi Tharoor is the author of The Elephant, the Tiger and the Cellphone [Arcade Publishing] and a former U.N. Under-Secretary General.)

A united plea to ‘save Kenya’

 

Xan Rice

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There was only one headline on the front page of all of Kenya’s big newspapers on Thursday: “Save Our Beloved Country.” The show of unity among media groups of differing political views indicates just how grave the situation has become. Independent television stations joined in, running “Save Our Country” banners across the bottom of the screen.

Radio stations read out the newspaper editorials. The Daily Nation, Kenya’s biggest selling newspaper, began its page one story with, “Our beloved country, the Republic of Kenya, is a burnt-out, smouldering ruin,” and blamed the political leaders who were “issuing half-hearted calls for peace.” — ©Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2008

 

Shocking incident

 

The news that a standard VIII student was shot dead allegedly by his schoolmate in Satna in Madhya Pradesh comes as a terrible shock, with the Gurgaon incident yet to fade from our memory. As a society, we are morally responsible for our children’s mindset. We allow them to grow in a culture where we celebrate fighting and knocking down one another as games, and treat violence and fanaticism as acts of heroism. As elders, we should serve as role models for them. Unfortunately, even among our so-called leaders, there are but a few who can be emulated.

As a first step, the government should ban programmes in small and big screens that glorify violence in the name of sport.

R. Ponnarassi,

Vellore

 

* * *

 

The shooting, coming close on the heels of a similar incident in the elitist environs of Gurgaon, confirms that adolescent rage is not confined to a strata of society. The electronic media glorify violence and the young and impressionable minds are led to believe that instant justice is the answer to all their grievances. We need to ponder over and counter this trend, through an empathetic and effective communication process that will ensure that young minds do not go astray. Parents and teachers have a crucial role to play in this process.

 

Sekhar Rayaprolu,

San Jose, California

 

* * *

 

The Satna outrage is more disconcerting than the Gurgaon incident because it took place in a village school. The gun culture seems to be spreading to all sections of society. That personal animosity can compel students to resort to such an extreme step should open our eyes to the real danger that is staring us in the face.

 

Blaming the media for the waywardness of the youth is only partly correct. Parents and teachers should create the feeling that the students are cared for and loved. They should make the young aware of the judicial retribution that awaits the delinquents and the social rejection likely to befall them. They should be taught to be tolerant and kind.

N.K. Vijayan,

Kizhakkambalam

 

* * *

 

A schoolboy being gunned down by one of his classmates will cease to be news in future. We are not only getting accustomed to violence but are also letting it dominate our lives. How do our boys get access to guns? Any legal process dealing with the errant children should also involve parents without whose complicity most juvenile crimes would be impossible.

 

T.S. Pattabhi Raman,

Coimbatore

 

* * *

 

The ugly turn of events is reminiscent of innumerable similar instances in the U.S. and elsewhere that have caused a fear psychosis among parents. Schools must tell students and parents that carrying any weapon or similar instrument is illegal and punishable with expulsion. They must conduct random checks and encourage students to report abusive language and violence on the premises. Students with aggressive tendencies, and those prone to bullying and hailing from dysfunctional families should be observed constantly. These steps, along with awareness programmes, will go a long way in ensuring safety.

 

Ganga Prasad G. Rao,

Chennai

 

* * *

 

The freedom children enjoy and the culture of violence are the cause of such incidents. We quickly point an accusing finger at the media. But we too are to blame. Children spend most of their time not with their parents but in Internet cafes playing wild computer games and seeing horror movies. They love to shoot down their ‘enemies.’ Parents should make it a point to spend some of their time with their children, teaching them good values.

 

S. Nallasivan,

Tirunelveli

 

* * *

 

A student killing another is not just an instance of murder. It signals the deterioration in our education and family values. Our education provides the ‘know-how’ but not knowledge. Families encourage competition and envy in their urge to put their children ahead of others. It is time we realised that technology and modernity are not substitutes for wisdom and values.

 

Nisha Gopalan,

Chennai

 

* * *

 

If a heated argument between teenaged boys can lead to killing, one wonders what is in store for us. It is apparent that teenage gun culture is taking deep root in India. The fact that parents do not even know that their sons carry a gun exposes the widening gap between them. With growing competition, parents seem to care only about their children’s performance, not values.

 

Thangkhochon Haokip,

New Delhi

 

 Appalling

 

That a group of about 60 men felt bold enough to molest two women who came out of a five-star hotel in Mumbai on New Year’s Eve, without fear of action, is appalling. Mumbai Police Commissioner D.N. Jadhav’s statement — that the media were making a mountain out of a molehill — is irresponsibility at its worst. Organisers of New Year celebrations must provide adequate security and protection to women. And women, on their part, should beware of the lurking dangers.

N. Nageswaran,

Chennai

 

* * *

 

While the sight of the mob pouncing on the two helpless women was shocking, worse was the fact that the outrage took place in Mumbai, considered one of the most developed and safe cities. It only shows that whatever the level of our progress, the mindset of some people is yet to change. Mr. Jadhav’s comment is most unfortunate. If this is the thinking of a police officer, what can one expect from a common man?

Imran Wadood,

New Delhi

 

* * *

 

Indian streets, it seems, are not safe for women. It is very unfortunate that a beastly incident, which should have been condemned as a crime deserving stringent action, was dismissed by a senior police officer as a minor issue. Stern punitive measures against such savagery are the need of the hour.

 

Beorn Kiruba,

Bangalore

 

* * *

 

When will men learn to respect women and stop treating them as objects of pleasure? Equal rights exist only on paper. The fact is women in India have a very long way to go before they can call themselves equal to men. I only hope those who outraged the modesty of the two women get the punishment they deserve.

 

Bhuvaneswari VamciKrishna,

Chennai

 

* * *

 

A few minutes past midnight brought shame to a country celebrating New Year’s Eve, forcing it to face the harsh reality that characterises the condition of women in India. The horrifying outrage at Juhu only reaffirms the need for strict action on the part of society and the police against such incidents so that women can exercise their right to live with dignity. While some or (most) men like Mumbai’s Police Commissioner may dismiss such incidents as a minor issue, thankfully there are a few who think differently. The Mumbai outrage is one among many other crimes against women, action on which is conspicuous by its absence.

Shambhavi Srivastava,

New Delhi

 

* * *

 

News of molestation from Mumbai and Kochi during the New Year’s Eve has brought shame and disgrace to the country. India, it seems, is becoming more unsafe and dangerous for women by the day. The Mumbai incident shows how fearless unruly mobs have become. It is obvious that the men who indulged in the heinous act were not afraid of the law. Crimes against women should be dealt with seriously and severe punishment given to the culprits.

 

Radhika Ramaswamy,

Chennai

 

* * *

 

Easy money, moral degeneration, and disrespect for the advice of elders are perhaps some of the reasons for undesirable happenings across the country in the name of New Year celebrations. It is just one more day in the lives of the poor while for some it is an opportunity to display their wealth. It is another instance of aping the West blindly, ignoring our noble traditions.

 

V. Vijayendra Rao,

Neyveli

Cement import to contain prices

 

The Tamil Nadu government’s decision to import one lakh tonnes of cement and distribute it through the Civil Supplies Corporation must be seen as another signal to the Centre that it must intervene and rein in galloping cement prices. On paper, cement imports are allowed and taxes have been lowered. But the procedural obstacles, bureaucratically contrived delays on account of Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) certification, have thwarted many an attempt to procure cem ent from abroad and contain domestic prices. Six months ago, the Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister wrote to the Prime Minister complaining about the delays built into BIS certification and suggesting alternative quality checks by competent agencies, including public sector undertakings designated by State governments. The reasoning behind this demand was sound but unfortunately New Delhi was unmoved. Through this financial year, cement prices have been climbing steadily, first breaching the Rs.200 per bag level and now ruling at anywhere between Rs.200 and Rs.270, depending on the place. Cement plants in the country are working at 95 per cent capacity (the total capacity is around 160 million tonnes) and expect to build an additional capacity of 13 million tonnes this fiscal year — the highest ever increase since 2001, when they added 16.2 million tonnes. In sum, demand is outstripping supply, cement manufacturers are profiteering from high prices, and imports are deterred by a certification procedure that is, in effect, a non-tariff barrier.

The responses by Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh indicate the frustration of State governments in the face of rising construction costs that hurt ordinary people as well as major government projects and have an inflationary impact. Many mega projects of governments and their agencies, private sector projects, and the housing sector have been subject to a severe cost escalation. Infrastructure projects absorb 40 per cent of the cement produced while the housing sector takes the remaining 60 per cent. Imports are a well-recognised means of containing prices. Countries like Thailand and Pakistan may be ready to export cement but the trade finds the certification procedure a serious deterrent to import. It will be unconscionable and also politically damaging for the Centre to continue to turn a Nelson’s eye to the problems faced by State governments and ordinary consumers as all building costs escalate sharply. The economist Prime Minister needs to intervene urgently to see that the practical restrictions on the import of cement are lifted in the public interest.

 Kenya’s stolen election

 

The presidential election in Kenya has triggered major violence. Tribal rivalries have been ignited, taking upwards of 300 lives so far. The incumbent President, Mwai Kibaki, has claimed victory over Raila Odinga. Strangely, the parliamentary and presidential contests, which were held simultaneously, produced impossible-to-reconcile outcomes. The Orange Democratic Movement led by Mr. Odinga, which led in every opinion poll except one, unseated most members of the incumbent Cabinet and took 100 out of 210 parliamentary seats while Mr. Kibaki’s Party of National Unity won just 35 seats. In the presidential election, the early counting trends heavily favoured Mr. Odinga and media computations also had him ahead. But the three-day counting process lacked transparency and suffered unexplained delays in vote tallying. In some constituencies the votes polled exceeded the number of registered voters. All this naturally fuelled allegations of rigging. The head of the Electoral Commission himself has publicly doubted whether Mr. Kibaki actually won, and the Attorney General has called for an independent investigation. The European Union’s Electoral Observation Mission has issued a damning report on the election process, saying it fell short of “key international and regional standards for democratic elections” and calling for a swift, independent investigation of the results. The United States initially welcomed the election result but has now joined Britain, the former colonial ruler, in questioning its credibility and accuracy.

Sadly, hopes of a true democratic revival in Kenya, which has East Africa’s largest economy, have been shattered. Mr. Odinga, a former political prisoner under the dictatorship of Daniel Arap Moi and son of nationalist hero Oginga Odinga, has been projected as an agent of progressive change. The voter turnout was huge and the polling broadly transparent and peaceful. What is clear is that the presidential election was stolen in the counting and tallying process. Mr. Odinga’s demand that the President must admit the brazen fraud is wholly just and seems to imply one of two things: Mr. Kibaki must step down or the presidential election process should be gone through all over again. In either case, an independent review and scrutiny, under credible supervision, of what went wrong would be a requirement. At this vital moment for democracy in Africa, the African Union, the European Union, and the Commonwealth need to do all they can to help Kenya come out of this crisis with its head held high. The only way to overcome this huge setback to democracy in Africa and for “national healing,” which Mr. Kibaki has called for, to have a chance is for him to go.

 Rights-free zones: illegal and unjust

 

Mukul Sharma

 

 

 

The Guantanamo model signifies the abandoning of basic principles of human rights. It de-legitimises us.

 

 

 

 

 

“O Father, this is a prison of injustice.

Its iniquity makes the mountains weep.

I have committed no crime and am guilty of no offence.

Curved claws have I,

But I have been sold like a fattened sheep.”

— Abdulla Thani Faris al Anazi, a Guantanamo detainee since 2002, arrested in Afghanistan, and turned over to the United States forces by bounty hunters.

January 11, 2008, will mark six years since the first detainees were transferred to Guantanamo Bay. The U.S. naval base there is a rights-free zone for the detention, treatment and trial of certain people in connection with the “war on terror.” Here, the Pentagon is authorised to hold non-U.S. citizens in indefinite custody without charge; the detainees are barred from seeking any remedy in proceedings in any U.S., foreign or international court; if any det ainee were tried, the trial would be by a military commission — an executive body — and not an independent or impartial court. A Justice Department memorandum to the Pentagon advises that because Guantanamo Bay is not a sovereign U.S. territory, the federal courts should not be able to consider habeas corpus petitions from ‘enemy aliens’ detained at the base.

Most detainees there are housed in conditions amounting to cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment. Most spend 22 hours a day in total isolation, and suffer other forms of sensory deprivation. A majority of them have been held for nearly six years with no prospect of a fair trial, no direct access to their families, and no access to a lawyer. These conditions have had a shattering impact on their psychological and physical health. At least four men are stated to have committed suicide, and many suicide attempts have been reported (For details see, “Guantanamo Bay – a legal black hole,” The Hindu, January 6, 2007).

International campaigns have raised many issues regarding this: closing down the detention centre at Guantanamo Bay and ending the U.S. secret detention programme, wherever it is based; releasing all detainees held in the “war on terror,” including those held at Guantanamo, unless they are to be charged and given a fair trial; stopping secret detentions, unlawful transfer of detainees between countries (rendition) or enforced disappearance in counter-terrorism operations; repeal of the Military Commissions Act 2006; and providing prompt and adequate reparation.

The fifth anniversary of the first transfers to Guantanamo was marked by activists around the world staging demonstrations and other activities. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, the U.N. Committee against Torture, former U.S. Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, heads of states from Europe and elsewhere, human rights and legal organisations, and many more have supported various calls for the centre to be closed. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled against the government in two Guantanamo cases, decided in 2004 and 2006, and it is now considering whether the detainees should have access to courts — right to habeas corpus — to contest their detention.

Yet, the Guantanamo camp has not been closed, and it has thrown up a huge challenge to the international community. A model like Guantanamo signifies the abandoning of basic principles of human rights. It delegitimises us.

As Archbishop Desmond Tutu said on February 17, 2006, “It is disgraceful. I never imagined I would live to see the day when the United States and its satellites would use precisely the same arguments that the apartheid government used for detention without trial.”

It would have been virtually impossible for Guantanamo to continue without a global war paradigm, constructed under the rubric of “war on terror.” Using this, parts of international humanitarian laws, selectively interpreted, are deemed to apply, and human rights laws are generally disregarded. The administration repeatedly claims that they do not hold ground in armed conflicts. There are thus new rights-free zones, like Guantanamo, in different parts of the world, where a detainee can be subjected to cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment or punishment, including prolonged solitary or cellular confinement in conditions of reduced sensory stimulation.

Secret, unacknowledged arrests

 

 

Here we have secret, incommunicado and unacknowledged arrests and tortures, and all those who have been subjected to enforced disappearances and encounters are not provided access to effective remedy and justice, including compensation. Here we have anti-terror, so-called security laws, which suggest humane treatment as a matter of choice rather than law, and which exclude the security officials even from that choice. These occurrences should also be seen in the context of a dominant development paradigm, where Exclusive Economic Zones, Special Economic Zones and industrial projects in the tribal heartlands can be implemented, without free, informed and prior consent of the people.

Human rights activists in the rights-free zones are subjected to death threats, persecuted through the judicial system and silenced with the introduction of security laws. Going through unfounded investigations and prosecutions, many even disappear or are murdered.

Europe often presents itself as a beacon of human rights. However, the uncomfortable truth is that without Europe’s help, some men would not now be nursing torture wounds in prison cells in the rights-free zones, including Guantanamo. The revealing report of Dick Marty, Rapporteur of the Committee on Legal Affairs and Human Rights of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, concludes: “The body of information gathered makes it unlikely that European states were completely unaware of what was happening, in the context of the fight against international terrorism, in some of their airports, in their airspace or at American bases located on their territory. Insofar as they did not know, they did not want to know. It is inconceivable that certain operations conducted by American services could have taken place without the active participation, or at least the collusion, of national intelligence services.” (Alleged secret detentions and unlawful inter-state transfers involving Council of Europe member States, June 7, 2006, Draft Report - Part II (Explanatory memorandum), Para 230). In Asia and Africa, a large number of people in Pakistan, Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia became victims of rendition transferred in secret from one country to another, and to Guantanamo, through their governments.

Facts and figures on Guantanamo, released at the end of 2007, by Amnesty International are an eye-opener: nearly 800 detainees are being held there. Approximately, 300 detainees of around 30 nationalities were being held without charge or trial in November. Only one Guantanamo detainee, David Hicks, was convicted by the military commission in March 2007. He pleaded guilty to “providing material support to terrorism” under a pre-trial agreement that ensured his release from the U.S. custody after five years, and return to his native Australia to serve a nine-month prison term. Only three detainees were charged for trial by the military commission.

Between 2002 and November 2007, around 470 detainees were released into other countries. At least four of those still held were 18 years old when taken into custody. Detainees had been taken into custody in more than 10 countries before being transferred to Guantanamo, without any judicial process. An analysis of around 500 of the detainees concluded that only five per cent had been captured by the U.S. forces; and 86 per cent arrested by Pakistan or Afghanistan-based Northern Alliance forces and turned over to the U.S., often for a reward of thousands of dollars.

All rights-free zones are in violation of international and national human rights laws. Detention of each person there or every act of appropriation of natural resources in these zones is illegal and unjust. Treating all people deprived of their liberty with humanity, and with respect for their dignity, is a fundamental and universally applicable rule. It must be applied without distinction. Rights-free zones, like Guantanamo, should be closed not tomorrow, but this morning.

In general, most countries and their people have simply not taken a stand. They seem to believe that this is not their problem. They think they did not contribute to Guantanamo, and therefore they do not have to be part of the solution. We, the people, and the governments around the world can play a positive role in ending illegal U.S. detentions in the name of “war on terror.”

Among other things, we and our governments can protest to U.S. authorities against illegal detentions, provide lasting protection for detainees released from Guantanamo and elsewhere, and oppose all unlawful transfers of detainees between countries.

(Mukul Sharma is Director of Amnesty International in India

“The utilitarian view of universities takes away from their role of creativity”

 

Alison Richard, Vice-Chancellor of the University of Cambridge, is on a two-week visit to India to “strengthen Cambridge’s partnerships with Indian universities.”Mark Tullyinterviews her forThe Hinduat the start of her visit:

 

 

 

 

 

 

— Photo: V. V. Krishnan

Alison Richard, the 344th Vice-Chancellor at Cambridge, says: “There is so much opportunity here and there is a great fit between Cambridge and India.”

 

Cambridge’s first full-time woman Vice-Chancellor had some misgivings about accepting what must surely be one of the most prestigious jobs in academia. She told me: “When Cambridge asked me to throw my hat into the ring, I was extremely reluctant to do so. I had already been working as an academic administrator for eight and a half years at Yale and I am a committed anthropologist with a great passion for teaching and research.” But four and a half years into her term as Vice-Chancellor of Cambridge she has what can only be called infectious enthusiasm for her job. Certainly her enthusiasm infected me.

“I miss my research,” she tells me, “but I have the extraordinary interesting opportunity of sitting in the midst of one of the world’s great universities surrounded by outstanding people of enormous talent thinking about all manner of fascinating things.” But each year she does drop the role of Vice-Chancellor and returns to Madagascar for two weeks where she has done some of her most exciting research into the behaviour of primates. She is more than willing to share this enthusiasm for them with me, explaining that more than two-thirds of mammals live solitary lives, which raises two questions — what are the advantages of sociality and how do societies configure themselves. Those questions have led Alison Richard to the study of our nearest relations, the primates, and there is a wide variety of them in Madagascar. Her husband is an archaeologist but neither of their daughters has chosen to be an academic.

For all her enthusiasm, Alison Richard did not have a burning ambition to be an academic and even more strangely doesn’t seem certain whether she has chosen the right career. The daughter of a businessman who married at the late age of sixty, she was the first member of her family to go to university. She tells me: “I’d love to say I had a concrete ambition but it’s not true. I am still deciding what I want to do when I grow up, I think. One thing just led to another. ” But she goes on to say: “At every step I have been totally consumed and interested by what I have been doing.’

As Vice-Chancellor, she is Cambridge’s principal academic and administrative officer but Alison Richard prefers to be called an academic leader rather than an administrator. She is leading Cambridge towards the celebration of the eight hundredth anniversary of its foundation next year, having launched a campaign to raise one billion pounds by then. One of her ambitions is to ensure that the university increases its endowment sufficiently to insure that all students who have the ability to come to Cambridge can do so regardless of their family background.

What about the criticism often made that Cambridge and Oxford do take family background into account by taking a disproportionate number of students from private fee-paying schools? The Vice-Chancellor maintains that is a misunderstanding of the problem. She blames the inadequacy of many of the state schools for not producing students who can come up to the Cambridge entrance level. At the same time, she feels there are very good state school students who fear they might not be able to cope with Cambridge’s academic standards. She believes the University needs to “get those students to raise their own self-confidence and aspirations.”

Alison Richard wants Cambridge’s student body to be diverse and cosmopolitan, and this is one reason for what is only her second visit to India, and her first as Vice-Chancellor. “We live in a world which is increasingly interconnected,” she explains. “Most of our students are going to live and work across cultures. So we must take increasingly seriously the educational responsibility for producing citizens who can live and work like that. That means having a cosmopolitan and diverse student body so we are interested in attracting some of the most talented students from around the world, including of course India where there is so much talent.”

I tell the Vice-Chancellor that only last week I met students from IITs all over India at a festival in Mumbai and everyone I talked to hoped to study as postgraduates in America. The most common reason they gave was that it was cheaper. But Alison Richard thinks this is often a misapprehension. She points out that the Cambridge Trust has assisted a thousand Indian students over the last twenty-five years and one hundred and thirty are currently studying with bursaries. But she admits that Cambridge doesn’t provide as much financial assistance as the major American Universities and one of the aims of the fund-raising campaign is to match America. Nevertheless she feels the comparison between American universities and Cambridge is often exaggerated and that more needs to be done to get the word out about the scholarships which are available. She says: “I keep coming on circumstances where American universities have done a much better job of communicating a positive and upbeat message. We haven’t communicated as well as we should and the message has not been as positive and upbeat as it should be.”

It has always seemed to me that there is a danger that foreign universities attempting to attract Indian students will appear patronising, or even condescending — giving the impression that they offer a superior education to anything available in India. The Vice-Chancellor vigorously denies that. “I have come to India to strengthen Cambridge’s partnerships with Indian universities,” she tells me firmly and goes on to point out: “more and more major challenges are not amenable to solutions or study by individual academics or even academics in a single community working in isolation. They require international collaboration. Energy sustainability, religious and cultural conflicts, work on these and other subjects has to cross cultural and national boundaries. So I am coming to India to celebrate the partnerships we have and to continue to build them. There is so much opportunity here and I think there is a great fit between Cambridge and India.”

The Vice-Chancellor has also come here to announce a major new link with India. In order to celebrate the centenary of Jawaharlal Nehru’s arrival at Trinity College Cambridge to study natural sciences, the university is launching the “Jawaharlal Nehru Professorship of Indian Business and Enterprise.” This chair has been endowed by the Government of India and there is also to be a Cambridge Centre for Indian Business, established as a result of a contribution by the BP group.

So how does Alison Richard see the future of Cambridge and indeed of universities around the world? Well, first of all, she believes “the role of universities has never been more important than it is today.” But she is worried about what she calls the utilitarian view of universities — the view that they have to be useful for the creation of economic wealth. “My own deep, deep, belief is that the creation of cultural wealth and cultural insights is every bit as important as contributions to economic wealth that we make. That utilitarian view of universities takes away from their deep role of creativity in society.”

When I suggest that many students nowadays seem to have a utilitarian view of universities, opting for subjects that will bring them the fattest pay packets rather than the richest cultural reward, the Vice-Chancellor is less worried. She points out that in 1974 half the students at Cambridge were studying arts, humanities, or social sciences and the percentage is the same today. And that she insists is not because Cambridge imposes a quota system to insure the balance of subjects or lowers its standards to admit students in those subjects. “We get extraordinarily strong applicants,” she says.

But Alison Richard does believe there could be something of a utilitarian problem with academic staff. “I am not suggesting that anyone should be encouraged to come into academia to become rich. They won’t anyhow. But we should be able to make a decent living and if we don’t ensure that, students will vote with their feet.” She is particularly concerned about the remuneration of young academics who are at that stage in life when they are buying a house and bringing up a family. It’s the post-graduates and the lecturers that Britain is losing to America but at the senior level Cambridge at least is gaining as many academics from America as it is losing.

When I left Cambridge at the end of the fifties, colleges made little effort to encourage us to remain in touch with them or to ask us to offer any financial support. Alison Richards thinks that was because I went to Cambridge in the days of the welfare state when it was believed that everything, including higher education, would be provided by the state. She tells me: “It was a loss to the University not to have taken advantage of the extraordinary community of students and I would like to think a loss to all of you not to have been more engaged with your university.”

I assure the Vice-Chancellor all that has changed now and my college certainly keeps in touch with me. She believes that relations with alumni are far more important for the university than just getting them to contribute to the fund-raising campaign, which she says is “just one thing alumni can do for us and probably not the most important. You are our best advocates, you connect us to the real world.”

I wonder whether to ask the almost inevitable question — whether being the first woman Vice-Chancellor has caused any difficulties for her — but I decide against it. For someone so assured and at home in her job, that is clearly an irrelevance, and I don’t want to end the interview with a crushing reply, so I ask instead whether she has any regrets about coming back to the University where she took her first degree after so many years in the lusher pastures of American academia. I get a gentle rebuke: “I wouldn’t have come back from America if I didn’t have a passionate and profound belief in the greatness of this university and its capacity to be able to continue to play a vital and important role in the world. Nothing in the last four and a half years since I’ve been back has changed my mind.”

The Vice-Chancellor hopes her visit will strengthen the ties with India and build a partnership that will enlarge the role both Cambridge and its Indian partners play in the world. 

Britain too flawed to lecture world about democracy

 

Simon Jenkins

 

 

 

Hectoring phone calls from a post-imperial nanny won’t help Kenya or Pakistan create stable and prosperous societies

 

 

 

 

 

This week, the “better” democracies are wagging fingers at bad ones, like 17th-century popes reprimanding missionaries in the distant jungle. They tut-tut over a stuffed ballot box in Nairobi, a banned radio station in Islamabad or a murdered journalist in Moscow. They condemn a riot here, a bombed polling booth there, and an imprisoned politician somewhere else.

The British government is peculiarly unable to resist such finger-wagging. While Tories long to rule a better Britain, the Blair/Brown Labour party longs to rule a better world. Some time ago, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband told Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz “what actions we expect his government to take.” Last weekend, Gordon Brown telephoned President Pervez Musharraf to explain to him “the need to push ahead with the democratic process and to avoid any significant delay in the electoral timetable.” He added that Britain expected Pakistan’s elections to be “free, fair and secure.”

On the other phone line, Mr. Brown had the benighted rulers of Kenya, another of Kipling’s “lesser breeds without the law” needing instruction in the democratic catechism. He professed himself “appalled” at events there and “would be talking to the various parties ... to see talks between them,” apparently unaware that Kenya is no longer part of the British empire. The British commanded Kenyans to “behave responsibly.”

If I had been President Musharraf in receipt of such patronising remarks, I would have drawn deep from the well of irony. I would have referred Mr. Brown to his poor poll rating and said Islamabad was “dismayed” he had funked a democratic mandate last October. I would have expressed Pakistan’s disappointment at Mr. Brown’s record on habeas corpus, ID cards, and the exploitation of Pakistani doctors by the NHS.

Democracy has never been perfect. From the moment self-government lost touch with “self,” it adapted itself to nations and peoples. Its institutions depend more on local history, culture and geography than on Madison, Mill, and De Tocqueville. This week the rituals of heredity, not democracy, decided the leadership of the Pakistan People’s Party. Most Asian and African democracies are ballots qualified by assassination, corruption and inheritance. Yet we still grace them with the term.

Students of politics are taught to tick off the qualities that award the status of democracy to a polity. Are there free and fair elections? Can the franchise turn a regime out of office? Are there supporting institutions such as an open parliament, security of public assembly, elected local government, a free media, the rule of law? No one of these is either sufficient or necessary for democracy, which is rather a sliding scale of liberties, to which constitutions and regimes ascribe varying degrees of priority.

Presumptuous demand

 

 

It is thus presumptuous for the post-imperial West to demand that the world take the same route to self-government that it spent bloodthirsty centuries pursuing. We Brits are not so clean that we can lecture others on how they should govern themselves, especially those whom the West has polluted with aid, debt, trade curbs, and wars along their borders. Democracy in Pakistan and Kenya may be looking violently unwell at present, but Western democracy too is qualified by the corruption of party lists, eccentric primaries, and electoral colleges. The British and American constitutions are both currently battered by criticism from their subjects for falling short of democratic ideals, notably in handling accountability and checks on executive power. The outcome of America’s 2000 election was decided not by the ballot but by an appointed oligarchy. Americans would hardly have welcomed election monitors from Ukraine, India or Thailand encamped in the Miami Hilton.

Democracy is best propagated by example, not by conquest or official admonition. There are too many blots on Britain’s escutcheon for its leaders to go lecturing the world in terms redolent of the new interventionism.

Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world. Its fragile half-democracy is conditioned by the insecurities of its recent past and by desperate poverty. There are a hundred ways of helping it along the rocky path between democracy and dictatorship. But ultimately Pakistan, like Kenya, will be the stronger for taking this path alone. The last thing it needs is hectoring phone calls from a post-imperial nanny. — ©Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2008

 

Scrapping of SEZs

 

The editorial “Out of bounds for SEZs” (Jan. 3) was a balanced analysis of how a tiny State like Goa can suffer with the advent of Special Economic Zones. The State government’s action scrapping 15 SEZs, in view of the public opinion, is welcome. The Centre’s decision not to impose SEZs on the State (contrary to the Commerce Secretary’s stand that notified SEZs cannot be de-notified or scrapped by State governments) is welcome.

It is the State that has to examine the implications of setting up a SEZ. What Goa, a rich coastal belt in the Konkan region, requires are special agriculture zones with abundant plantations and fisheries.

V. Rajagopal,

Tirupati

 

* * *

 

The editorial deserves praise for shedding light on the level of socio-economic stress the States, particularly small ones, will undergo by indiscriminate creation of SEZs. The Goa government’s announcement to scrap the SEZs, bowing to the vox populi, is welcome. Isn’t democracy, after all, a government of the people, by the people and for the people?

 

P.K. Parameswaran,

Chennai

 

* * *

 

There is a strong case for a sound public hearing mechanism. It will provide the much-needed avenue to the people to air their grievances against big economic projects, precluding the possibility of opposition at a later date. Governments should remember that SEZ is only one way of providing employment opportunities to the people. Goa, with its pristine natural environment, is well placed to provide more employment avenues to the people in the field of tourism. So a concept of special eco-tourism zone is more relevant to the State.

 

Manish Manglani,

New Delhi

 

* * *

 

The Goan mining sector is causing immeasurable damage to the environment, the result of which will be felt in the years to come. And the predominantly tourist economy of the State has caused severe inflation. SEZs would have been the ideal solution for opening up non-polluting, knowledge-based sectors and reducing dependency on the fast depleting resources and tourism.

 

Prasanna Natarajan,

 

 Lax security

 

The terrorist attack on a CRPF camp in Rampur, Uttar Pradesh, which claimed eight lives, proved how lax security is even in armed camps. The attack has exposed the soft underbelly of the security forces which are expected to be vigilant all the time. It is important to evolve a foolproof identification system to prevent terrorists dressed as security forces from sneaking into the camps brazenly.

D.B.N. Murthy,

Bangalore

 

* * *

 

The cowardly attack on the CRPF centre deserves to be condemned. It proves all claims of decline in terrorism false. Equally disturbing was the report of yet another intelligence warning being ignored. A foolproof coordinating mechanism needs to be put in place. State-level security agencies should be trained to maintain heightened vigil.

 

Siddharth K. Raj,

Madurai

 Dynastic rule

 

This refers to the editorial “Political dynasts and martyrdom” (Jan. 1). Dynasty has yet again raised its ugly head in political succession, this time in Pakistan. Democracy seems too conservative to shift its allegiance from a leader of standing to another. The followers too are shocked to lose their slain leader and rush to choose his or her relatives as a measure of gratitude and, worse, to gain political mileage from people’s sympathy.

There are instances of the derring-do where the successor, mostly inept to fit into the leader’s shoe, rushes to adorn the vacant throne, sidelining the inherent threat of hasty succession. Time alone will show what is in store once the mood of bereavement passes. One hopes the greenhorn teenager, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, on whom the mantle donned by his mother and grandfather was cast, will maintain the PPP’s ideology.

Radhanath Behera,

Koraput

 

* * *

 

The editorial is a forceful piece, well written. Some readers have compared dynastic politics in the subcontinent — in the context of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s appointment as PPP chairperson — to politics in the United States. George W. Bush did not win the presidency because of his father, Bush Sr. Nor will Hillary Clinton become President (if she does) because she is the wife of a former President. Every candidate has to compete through several caucuses within the party and then with the other party to win.

 

Jay Ravi,

Toronto

 

* * *

 

It is difficult to agree with readers who have justified dynastic succession in politics (Jan. 3). True, Nehru was a leader of the masses but that does not give Rahul Gandhi the right to lead the country. Nehru did not encourage dynastic politics, evident from the fact that Indira Gandhi did not become Prime Minister after his death. Families of many leaders have made supreme sacrifices. But do they enjoy the same privilege?

 

Politicians have greater responsibility than actors and doctors. The decisions they take affect the whole nation. Children of politicians can afford to make mistakes and survive in the field. Children of doctors who wish to become doctors have to slog it out.

S. Sudhir Kumar

 New Year revelries

 

The molestation of two women outside a five-star hotel by a mob of about 70 men in Mumbai is shocking and despicable. The incident raises serious questions on New Year’s Eve celebrations on the streets. But for the initiative taken by a couple of media photographers, the situation could have taken an ugly turn. The police have ample evidence on hand to nab the culprits as they have their photographs. What is needed is stringent action against the guilty.

J. Anantha Padmanabhan,

Srirangam

 

* * *

 

The police must take drastic action. The reluctance of the victims to register a case should be no reason for the culprits to walk free.

 

V. Ramaprasad,

Tiruchi

 

* * *

 

The incident is undoubtedly a shame. But it is also time to reflect on the factors that are increasingly leading to such incidents.

 

V.T. Joshi,

Bhopal

The incident was indeed tragic. There is no doubt that the perpetrators of the act should be punished. But it is wrong to blame the police. The women should not have risked going out on New Year’s Eve when many people on the streets are drunk and not in control of themselves.

It is better not to run a risk rather than expecting the police to offer protection everywhere. We too are responsible for our safety and security.

Safiya Sameena,

Vijayawada

 

* * *

 

The menace of New Year revelry has spread alarmingly across the country. Two women were molested outside a hotel and five persons killed in a road accident in Mumbai, and a software engineer died in Chennai.

The law will, of course, take its course and the cases will be closed with the passage of time. Another day dawns on the horizon but the morning sun glooms over those running helter-skelter in hospitals and police stations.

R. Gopalan,

Chennai

 

* * *

 

The revelry in Chennai which ended in a tragedy was avoidable. Aren’t there better ways of ushering in the New Year than dancing and drinking in posh hotels? Such celebrations are borrowed from the West and were unknown to earlier generations. Any culture which, instead of making life more pleasant, imperils people is best avoided.

 

G. Ramalingam,

Chennai

Out of bounds for SEZs

 

A coastal State with an area of 3,700 square kilometres and a population of about 1.4 million, Goa has always been extremely sensitive to the impact of unrestrained economic development. The upsurge of public activism against the setting up of Special Economic Zones, which eventually forced the State government to announce the scrapping of all 15 such projects, is an impressive case in point. Early last year, a similar agitation coerced the government into calling for a re vision of the Goa Regional Plan 2011, a controversial document that opened up large swathes of land, including green belts and coastal stretches, for construction. The broad-based agitation against SEZs has demonstrated the power of popular protest in the State. Those opposed to the projects had questioned the propriety of the government acquiring large tracts of land and then selling them to promoters at low prices. There were also suspicions that some of the SEZs were real estate speculative plays, fronts for the entry of big construction companies.

Ironically, the government’s defence of the projects on the ground that they would result in a sharp surge in employment boomeranged on it. It led to the SEZ issue getting tied up with that of Goan identity, with worries that the projects would attract large numbers of ‘outsiders’ and alter the State’s demographic profile. The very nature of Goa demands that issues of land use, environmental management, industrial development, and resource conservation need to be looked at independently — in a way that takes into account the State’s unique economic and socio-cultural character. The tiny State, which attracts more than 12 per cent of foreign tourists visiting India and about 75 per cent of the direct charter traffic, is one of the country’s most popular tourist destinations. Ecological well-being — a high priority for the people of Goa and also the basis of its appeal as a tourism hot spot — must not be diminished by short-sighted developmental projects. The scrapping of the SEZ projects, which has been well received by all major political parties in the State, should put a definitive end to the long-drawn out controversy. The Digambar Kamath government must be commended for respecting the wishes of the people and taking a decision to keep Goa totally SEZ-free. In turn, the Central government must respect this democratic outcome and help the State government speedily resolve all remaining issues, especially the question of how land already allotted to private parties in the three notified SEZs will be recovered.

The race for influence in West Asia

 

Atul Aneja

 

 

 

The National Intelligence Estimate’s findings on Iran may mark the beginning of Washington’s post-Cold War decline in West Asia.

 

 

 

 

 

The full impact of the observations in the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report — produced collectively by Washington’s numerous intelligence agencies — on the Iranian nuclear programme is still unfolding. However, it is evident that after the release of the report, according to which Iran has not had a nuclear weapons programme since 2003, power equations in the world’s oil heartland are shifting dramatically.

Iran, fourth largest producer of oil, and Saudi Arabia, global leader, are rapidly consolidating their political influence in the region. The other countries that are also enhancing their geostrategic profile in West Asia’s energy bastion include Russia and China. After voting twice against Iran in the International Atomic Energy Agency — apparently at Washington’s behest — India also appears to be making a belated attempt at mending fences with Tehran. For the first time after World War II, the United States is struggling to retain its substantial politico-military influence in the region.

Iran and Saudi Arabia, along with Iraq and the rest of the Persian Gulf states — Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman — hold the largest reserves of oil in the world. Any change in the international pecking order in this region, therefore, is bound to have a profound impact on the world’s economy and politics.

The NIE’s findings have already unhinged the case for war against Tehran. Its conclusion that Iran ceased its weapons programme in 2003 implies that Tehran does not pose a nuclear threat to anyone in the near future. The findings have also weakened the case for tightening sanctions.

The NIE’s clean chit appears to have raised by several notches the relatively low-key interaction between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both countries exercise enormous influence in their constituencies in the region. Saudi Arabia is now widely recognised as the de facto leader of the Arab world. It has taken the lead in trying to resolve the Arab-Israeli dispute. The 22-nation Arab League has already adopted the plan of the Saudi monarch, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, to resolve the Israel-Palestine dispute. Riyadh also exercises considerable clout because of the key role it can play in the global oil markets. Besides, Saudi Arabia is the birthplace of Islam and two of the holiest shrines revered by Muslims the world over are in the Kingdom. The footprint of Saudi influence is, therefore, seen far and wide.

There have been significant changes in the foreign policy of Saudi Arabia, known for long as a faithful U.S. ally, after King Abdullah’s accession in 2005. The new monarch adopted a “look east” policy, which became evident when he chose India, Malaysia and China for his first overseas visit. Stepping out of line from the Washington-led peace process on Palestine, King Abdullah engaged both the Fatah and rival Hamas on its home turf in order to persuade them to form a national unity government. He met with some success when the factions agreed in Makkah to accept a political compromise despite Washington’s strong opposition to the deal.

Despite the setback the initiative suffered when bitter street battles broke out in Gaza and led to the virtual partition of Palestinian territories between the Fatah and Hamas, the Saudi monarch has not given up. Hamas leader Khalid Meshaal recently revisited Saudi Arabia and met King Abdullah. Efforts are being made to revive talks between Hamas and the Fatah, in order to advance the Saudi Arbia-initiated Makkah peace process.

Iran, on the other hand, exercises unique influence, especially among the region’s Shia population. Its substantial influence in Bahrain, a country with a majority Shia population and Sunni leadership, is well known. Iran is also a player in oil-rich Kuwait. Besides, ties between Iran and the Hizbollah in Lebanon are extremely close. The Hizbollah’s profile in Beirut as well as the region rose dramatically after it blunted the Israeli attack on Lebanon in August 2006.

Saudi Arabia and Iran began to work closely together after sectarian violence in Iraq inflamed the region. Lebanon became the first nation in which both countries decided to coordinate their activities in order to heal its growing sectarian and religious divide. While the Iranians were well positioned to influence the Shias under the Amal and Hizbollah movements, the Saudis could exercise clout over the wealthy Sunni community, which had made considerable investments in Saudi Arabia and vice versa. The interaction proved fruitful and now helped internal factions narrow down their differences over a consensus candidate for the vacant Lebanese Presidency.

Tehran and Riyadh also worked with some success in Iraq, where the Saudi intelligence could exercise its influence over some of the Al Qaeda tribal groups. Iranian influence among Iraqis, especially the Shias and Kurds, is well recognised.

Resilience evident

 

 

The resilience of the Saudi-Iranian relationship became evident soon after the Annapolis conference held on November 27, 2007. Despite the stated American efforts to build an Arab front against Iran at the conference, the events on the following days showed that forces negating Washington’s exhortations gained the upper hand. Just after the conference, the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council took the dramatic step of inviting Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to its annual summit in Doha. King Abdullah led him by the hand to the conference — a rare gesture of solidarity between the two regional heavyweights.

The conference began the very day the NIE report was released. The Saudis wasted no time in taking advantage of its findings. At the conference, Mr. Ahmadinejad spoke of evolving a collective security arrangement with Iran’s neighbours. The implication was obvious. On an Arab platform, Iran was saying it wanted to step inside the region with its neighbours, and, implicitly, marginalise the presence of American military forces, which have played a preponderant role in the oil rich region for the past few decades.

Besides, the Iranian leader invited Gulf businessmen to invest in his country, in areas that included real estate. Iranian businessmen have made substantial investments in Dubai and reside in the Emirate in large numbers. A nucleus which can carry out investments in Iran, therefore, already has a significant presence in the Gulf, especially Dubai.

Keeping up the high momentum in their relationship, King Abdullah and President Ahmadinejad met again in Makkah during the Haj. Commenting on the visit, Iran’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Mohammad Hosseini, insightfully said: “Iran and Saudi Arabia, as two leading countries in the region and in the Islamic world, shoulder a heavy responsibility. The two countries have reached a mutual understanding not to limit their ties exclusively to bilateral issues.”

Apart from the growing regional assertion by Saudi Arabia and Iran, Russia has moved in swiftly after the release of the NIE report. Less than 24 hours of its publication, Moscow announced that it was dispatching the first consignment of nuclear fuel for Iran’s Bushehr atomic power plant. Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, rejected calls for tougher economic sanctions on Iran in the light of fresh U.S. intelligence data. Besides, the Russians began military exercises in the Mediterranean, deploying 11 ships including an aircraft carrier with 47 planes on board. The Russian navy is reportedly using the Syrian port of Tartus as a supply base for its ships operating in the Mediterranean.

China has also made further inroads into Iran after the release of the NIE report. Despite the U.S. insistence on sanctions, the China Petrochemical Corporation on December 10 signed a $2-billion deal with Iran to develop its Yadavaran oilfield. Encouraged by the NIE findings, the Iranians are now seeking Japanese investments to develop their oil sector.

India, too, has sought to reengage Iran. Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon visited Tehran in mid-December. He was quoted as saying there that India “is interested in establishing a strategic partnership with Iran in the areas of energy, transport, and security.”

However, India’s non-participation in the recent meetings on the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project and the perception of its growing proximity to the U.S. have not gone down well with Iran. At his meeting with Mr. Menon, Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, in fact, noted that the “low level” of ties between the two great regional countries over the past two years was “lamentable.” He added: “We should not let any foreign powers to harm the existing ties between the two countries.”

Given the growing assertion of Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well as the intention of Russia and China to enhance their profile in the region, the release of the NIE report may well mark the beginning of Washington’s post-Cold War decline in West Asia.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Printer friendly page   
 

The idea of a U.S.-free Korean peninsula

 

P.S. Suryanarayana

 

 

 

The DPRK tends to view the current strategic dynamics in the divided region in U.S.-centred terms.

 

 

 

 

 

The de-nuclearisation of the long-divided Korean peninsula is not a one-way exercise in diplomacy. If proof of this simple but profound reality is needed, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), as the northern part of the peninsula is known, has brought this aspect into sharp focus on New Year’s Day.

First, the Republic of Korea (RoK), or the southern part, regretted that the DPRK authorities missed the end-of-2007 deadline to declare their nuclear-arms programme, and stockpiles of fissile materials and related weapons. Pyongyang had committed itself to making a full declaration about these definitive aspects under an agreement that six relevant parties reached in Beijing on October 3 last year. The six parties are the DPRK, the RoK, the United States, China as the proactive Chair for the Korean de-nuclearisation talks, Japan, and Russia.

The U.S., a long-time military ally of both the RoK and Japan, had predicted that the DPRK might miss the deadline. However, as the prophecy became a fact, Washington sounded a pragmatic note against any knee-jerk reaction of discontinuing the six-party talks that have been in progress since 2003.

It was in this context that the DPRK, in a New Year comment channelled through the ruling party organs, reaffirmed its demand that the U.S. end its long-entrenched military presence across the RoK. In renewing this call, also indirectly linked to the American nuclear umbrella for the RoK, the DPRK remained silent about missing its deadline for a promised nuclear arms-related declaration. There was a political message behind the act of shining the spotlight on Washington’s role in regard to the RoK when the issue in prime focus was actually the DPRK’s promised declaration.

In simple terms, the DPRK’s message was that the Korean peninsula de-nuclearisation would require military-related actions by the U.S. as well.

For long, the DPRK has insisted that the U.S. should not deploy any of its nuclear weapons or the related delivery systems on the territories, including maritime zones, under the RoK’s sovereign jurisdiction. Equally consistently in recent years, Washington, for its part, has maintained that the RoK is free of American nuclear weapons and the collateral delivery systems. However, the DPRK tends to view the current strategic dynamics on the Korean peninsula in U.S.-centred terms. While continuing to deploy its slightly-depleted military forces on the RoK territory, the U.S., in Pyongyang’s perspective, remains committed to providing Seoul with a nuclear umbrella for the foreseeable future.

Not so far addressed seriously is the question whether the U.S., even if it withdraws its military forces and machinery from the RoK, will continue to protect it under the existing system of an “extended nuclear deterrence.” Under this formulation, the U.S. is said to have unfurled its nuclear umbrella over the RoK without actually using its territory, for a number of years now, for deploying atomic arms and the related delivery systems.

Pyongyang’s concerns

 

 

Evident from the latest comment by the DPRK are its serious worries about being asked to de-nuclearise itself, without so much as the U.S. indicating any willingness to withdraw from the RoK at any time. This aspect, more than the DPRK’s perceived reluctance to “come clean,” should account for the current stalemate over the declaration issue. The U.S. and its allies, however, point out that the DPRK does not want to disclose its suspected uranium enrichment programme.

Under the six-party deal, now being implemented, the DPRK had agreed to take steps towards nuclear disarmament and secure, as compensation, energy aid and humanitarian supplies from the other five countries. In doing so, Pyongyang did not insist that its own total de-nuclearisation would be conditional upon the disbanding of the RoK-based U.S. military forces.

The strategic options open to DPRK leader Kim Jong-il cannot be missed, though, in the U.S.-led euphoria over his cooperation in shutting down the nuclear facilities at Yongbyon and “disabling” them in a process now on. A total disclosure of all of Mr. Kim’s nuclear programmes is integral to the existing deal. However, the eventual “dismantlement” of the DPRK’s nuclear-weapons capabilities, in terms of fissile materials, technical infrastructure as also arms stockpiles and methods of production, is yet to be negotiated.

This has offered Mr. Kim a window of opportunity to press, from now onwards, for a U.S.-free Korean peninsula as the final price for an eventual nuclear-weapons-free domain.

Two new political realities define this emerging situation. U.S. President George W. Bush wrote a rare personal letter to Mr. Kim about a month ago, urging him to recognise the importance of making a correct declaration. The real significance of that letter, though, was the sign that Mr. Bush was finally willing to abandon his ill-advised theory of an “axis of evil” that portrayed the Kim “regime” as a coordinate that needed to be removed or reformed.

Mr. Kim also has to reckon with the victory of Lee Myung-bak, an acknowledged “hawk” on matters relating to the DPRK, in the RoK presidential poll on December 19 last year. Mr. Lee will assume office on February 25, but the DPRK has already begun to look at its sums afresh in the strategic domain.

In 2001, Kongdan Oh and Ralph C. Hassig, experts on the DPRK nuclear issue, assessed the issue of “guessing right and guessing wrong about engagement” with Mr. Kim. The U.S. and its allies now find that he is keeping them guessing at a crucial stage in the actual engagement itself.

 

 Evergreen revolution

 

This refers to the article “Agricultural strategy, internal security and sovereignty” (Jan. 1). The numerous employment programmes will not make any difference to unemployment in the skilled and unskilled sectors. An evergreen revolution with knowledge-based agriculture and the necessary market support should be launched at the earliest. A proper market mechanism for agricultural produce alone can bring naxalites into the mainstream.

Will our policymakers heed the advice that grain is a better catalyst of peace than gun?

S. Kasimayan,

Madurai

 

* * *

 

The article suggests ways to mitigate the suffering of farmers and marginalised sections. The valuable suggestions made by M.S. Swaminathan should be implemented in letter and spirit by the government, if farmers’ woes are to be redressed.

 

S.V.K. Chandran,

Thiruvananthapuram

 

* * *

 

Professor Swaminathan has brilliantly advocated the inherent link between rural prosperity and internal security of the nation.

 

Another aspect that needs attention is distribution of irrigated water among farmers, given the widespread disparities that exist among them in terms of income, assets and social status.

Manish Manglani,

New Delhi

 Signs of stability and maturity

 

For the Indian stock markets, 2007 was an exceptional year, not merely because of the phenomenal rise of the benchmark stock indices, the Sensex and the Nifty. The Sensex climbed from 12,500 in early January — itself seen to be reflecting healthy valuations — to close at 20,257 at the end of the year. The Nifty too set up new records and ended the year at 6,138. The strong performance of the domestic stock markets is part of the recent trend of Asian and other emerging markets coming into their own. The slowing down of the U.S. economy along with the persistent weakness of the American dollar has caused fund managers to seek more lucrative but safe avenues elsewhere. India and a few other markets filled the bill ideally. While foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have always been the dominant force behind the rise in market valuations, their motivations are now more varied. Besides, the successful economic growth story, with an average annual GDP growth rate of 9 per cent and above, remains intact. The onset of the sub-prime crisis in the United States in September, with strong negative connotations for the financial systems of the developed world, was the time when India along with a few other markets emerged as sanctuaries attracting large investments from across the globe. The Sensex went up from 16,000 to 20,000 in a matter of three months.

However, the important messages of the year 2007 go beyond the role of the foreign institutional investors. When the final tally is made it will be seen that, although the FIIs will be the single largest group of investors in the Indian markets, they are less dominant than in the recent past. Domestic financial institutions, led by the public sector LIC and the mutual funds, have invested substantial amounts and, on many occasions, taken positions that neutralised the FII actions, as they did remarkably in November and December when the FIIs pulled some $5 billion out of Indian stocks. Indian financial institutions were able to check what would have been a precipitous fall. The domestic retail investor base remains weak but volatility, which has been a worrisome feature, is showing signs of moderating. Insurance companies have overtaken mutual funds as the second largest category of investors. With a variety of investors having divergent objectives and different time horizons operating in the field and with no single category driving the prices, the Indian stock markets seem to be moving towards a greater degree of stability and maturity. For the new year, there cannot be a more salutary message.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Printer friendly page  

 South Africa headed for leadership change?

 

M.S. Prabhakara

 

 

 

The election of Jacob Zuma as the African National Congress president is certainly a setback to Thabo Mbeki and may mark the beginning of the decline of his political authority.

 

 

 

 

 

Despite the acrimony of the bruising electoral battles at the 52nd national conference of the African National Congress (December 16-19) at Polokwane, it would be wrong to see the outcome as the beginning of the ANC’s end as a movement and political party. However, it was certainly a setback to the incumbent ANC president, Thabo Mbeki, and may even mark the beginning of the decline of his political authority even though he will remain President of South Africa till A pril 2009. This position invests him with executive power that, according to his rival, Jacob Zuma’s supporters, is already being misused to hobble Mr. Zuma and curb his political ambitions, if not destroy him politically.

The scale and near-totality of the rejection of Mr. Mbeki and his supporters by the national conference are truly immense. Not merely did he lose the contest for ANC president to Mr. Zuma, the ANC deputy president whom he sacked as the country’s Deputy President in June 2005; all the other candidates for the remaining five top party executive positions (deputy president, national chairperson, secretary general, treasurer general and deputy secretary general), openly identified with Mr. Mbeki, lost to known Zuma supporters. Further, the outcome of the election to the powerful 80-member National Executive Committee (NEC), ‘the highest organ of the ANC between Conferences [with] the authority to lead the organisation,’ a day later, emphatically reconfirmed the overwhelming support Mr. Zuma enjoys in the organisation. Again, almost all known Mbeki supporters were defeated, including three of the five who had formed the Mbeki ‘ticket’ — a rather inaccurate American importation — for the six top positions.

Among the notable and vocal Mbeki supporters who failed to retain their seats in the powerful NEC were Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, who was appointed Deputy President of the country after Mr. Zuma was sacked; ANC national chairperson Mosiuoa ‘Terror’ Lekota, who earlier lost the contest for secretary general; Smuts Ngoynyama, head of the ANC president’s office; Frank Chikane, director general in the presidency; Essop Pahad, Cabinet Minister in the presidency; Ronnie Kasrils, Minister for Intelligence; Charles Nqkula, Safety and Security Minister, who was earlier replaced as chairperson of the South African Communist Party (SACP) by Gwede Mantshse and was now the new ANC secretary general. However, Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, the Foreign Minister who Mr. Mbeki favoured for deputy president but lost the contest, and Joel Netshithenze, a close Mbeki advisor who had lost the contest for national chairperson, managed to retain their NEC seats.

Significantly, while most ministers dealing with the economy failed to retain their seats, Trevor Manuel, Finance Minister and main driver of the macroeconomic policy, which was firmly opposed by both the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the SACP who backed Mr. Zuma, retained his seat, albeit at a lowly 57th position, in contrast to the first position he secured at the 2002 national conference in Stellenbosch.

This growth strategy, encapsulated in the June 1996 document, Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR), under President Nelson Mandela has, from its inception, been contested by Cosatu and the SACP, partners of the ANC at the political level even if not formally in the government as Cosatu and SACP members. Even sections of the ANC are known to be opposed to GEAR. However, the ANC-SACP-Cosatu tripartite alliance, forged during the struggle against apartheid, continues to be operative, though in the years since liberation it has been fraught with tension, mainly because of differences over the macroeconomic policy. The alliance has not broken down, despite the open differences over the Zuma issue, and the wish-fulfilling prognoses of the dominant sections of the media.

Considering the outcome, which was evident in the very composition of the nearly 4,000 delegates elected from the branches, most of them Zuma supporters, one wonders why Mr. Mbeki, with two terms as ANC president, decided to enter the fray at all. The reason could well be his genuine conviction that Mr. Zuma, whose personality flaws are more apparent than those of his peers in the ANC, was not fit to be his successor as head of the party and the state. The ‘irretrievable breakdown’ between the two which, according to analysts, goes back to the days following the unbanning of the ANC and other people’s organisations and the return of the ‘exiles’, prominent among whom was Mr. Mbeki, was prefigured in developments in the party and government well before the prosecution and conviction of Mr. Zuma’s financial adviser, Schabir Sheikh, in June 2005 on charges of bribery and corruption, the proximate factor that led to Mr. Zuma’s dismissal as South Africa’s Deputy President. (See Signs of Decay, Frontline, 13 January 2006.)

Part of the case against Sheikh was that he brokered a bribe of rand 5,00,000 from the local subsidiary of a French company involved in the 1998-99 multibillion-rand arms deal on behalf of Mr. Zuma, in expectation of special favours in the defence deal. Sheikh was also charged with paying bribes to Mr. Zuma to advance his business interests.

However, while Sheikh was convicted, the prosecution of Mr. Zuma, initiated following Sheikh’s conviction, collapsed on procedural grounds. Undaunted, the National Prosecuting Authority, a constitutional structure which Zuma supporters maintain has been consistently misused by the state (meaning President Mbeki himself) to persecute Mr. Zuma, renewed its efforts to build an unassailable case. Mr. Zuma, with backing from two of his strong allies in the tripartite alliance, Cosatu and the SACP, as well as the ANC Youth League and indeed from within the ANC itself — proven in the Polokwane outcome — vigorously defended himself against these accusations.

The ANC’s national conference was held in the backdrop of these developments over the past two years. However, his very triumph in Polokwane has, to no one’s surprise, exacerbated Mr. Zuma’s legal problems. Within days of the conclusion of the conference, the Directorate of Special Operations (Scorpions), the striking arm of the NPA, indicted (technically, arrested), Mr. Zuma on charges of corruption, fraud, money-laundering, racketeering and several other charges. According to one report, the indictment included 354 corrupt and illegal payments made by way of bribes received by Mr. Zuma accounting to over rand four million. Both Cosatu and the ANC Youth League have strongly condemned this indictment, in particular its ‘peculiar timing’ so soon after Mr. Zuma’s triumph at Polokwane. Reiterating its well-known stand on the seemingly ceaseless attempts by the NPA to secure Mr. Zuma’s conviction, Cosatu said the renewed allegations meant that his human rights, including the right to a speedy and fair trial, were being “systematically and grossly violated.” Using even stronger language, ANC Youth League president Fikile Mbalula said the decision to reinstate the charges and indeed the very case against Mr. Zuma were being “led by Mbeki.”

Normatively, the NPA is a structure functioning independently of the executive, though only the most innocent will believe that such high-profile prosecutions as that of the ANC president are launched without political clearance.

Article 179 (5) (a) of South Africa’s Constitution explicitly lays down that in determining the ‘prosecution policy,’ “the National Director of Public Prosecutions [now NPA] must determine, with the concurrence of the Cabinet member responsible for the administration of justice, and after consulting the Directors of Public Prosecutions, prosecution policy, which must be observed in the prosecution process” (emphasis added). In other words, the determination of the prosecution policy requiring the concurrence of the executive is an executive decision, and not simply a notionally independent legal initiative.

Expectedly, the acting head of the NPA has strongly refuted suggestions that the decision was influenced by President Mbeki. In an interview soon after the national conference, Mr. Mbeki too said: “If they [the National Prosecuting Authority] think they have a case, they should proceed [against Zuma] … they haven’t said anything to me.”

However, even if the prosecution were to proceed and Mr. Zuma’s trial, as announced by the NPA, were to begin on August 14, it would not be able to stop him in his tracks. For, Mr. Zuma has repeatedly said he does not consider an indictment that amounts to little more than allegations a conviction; that he will step down as ANC president only if he is convicted. Given South Africa’s legal system — even the NPA, presumably anxious to secure a conviction, has set the date for the beginning of the trial seven-and-a-half months from now — and the avenues for appeals and revisions at the level of the Supreme Court of Appeal and the Constitutional Court, the legal process one way or the other is unlikely to conclude before Mr. Mbeki’s term ends. The whole political dynamics will have then changed. It has already changed, as is evident in calls by the Zuma supporters that the ANC must assert its authority, even to the extent, if necessary, of ‘redeploying’ persons in the executive.

This raises complex constitutional questions for, the President is elected by members of the National Assembly who have attained their positions by virtue of nomination by their political parties. While the ANC can tinker with the list of its MPs, deploying if considered necessary a member of the National Assembly to a Provincial Assembly, such freedom is not available in respect of the members of the executive. The president is elected by the National Assembly, and the rest of the executive (ministers and deputy ministers) are appointed by the president.

Constitutionally speaking, the next few months will be a dance on eggshells in South Africa.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Printer friendly page  

Corruption has blighted Kenyan voters’ hopes

 

Meera Selva

 

 

 

 

 

---

There is a sense that the post-election bloodshed could have been averted if the politicians had stepped down when their time had passed.

---

 

 

These were meant to be Kenya’s golden days. A booming economy, a mobile phone for every man, woman and child, a robust and lively press. It is a tragedy for the country and the whole of Africa that a few days after Kenya’s elections, curfews are being imposed, gangs of young men are fighting on the streets, security police are storming through slums looking for agitators, and disfigured corpses are being discovered around the country. As ever, there is a sense that this bloodshed could have been averted if politicians had stepped down when their time has passed.

Kenya had high hopes when Mwai Kibaki moved into the presidential office in December 2002. Kenyan politics is still defined by tribe, and although Mr. Kibaki belonged to the dominant Kikuyu tribe, he had formed an alliance with Raila Odinga, who delivered the votes of the rival Luo and promised a new era of post-tribal politics in Kenya.

But corruption, the disease that has blighted Kenyan politics, crept back in as Ministers began siphoning off public funds and awarding contracts to suspect companies, confident that their President was too weak or ineffectual to stop them. And with corruption came the desire to stay in power.

 

Referendum

 

 

In 2005, the government held a referendum to strengthen the role of President. Enraged, Mr. Odinga left the Cabinet and set up a rival coalition to campaign for a no vote, and won. In the euphoria of the victory, he set up a rival party, the Orange Democratic Movement, to compete in last week’s elections.

He is now right to be furious about the way the election has been run. The irresponsibility and cynicism of Kenya’s leaders over the last year is a betrayal of the people who voted them in five years ago with glad hearts. — ©Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Printer friendly page  

Communal mischief

 

The unbiased editorial “Tackling communal mischief in Orissa” (Dec. 31) is an excellent analysis, with facts and figures, of the origin and spread of communal violence in Orissa particularly during the Christmas season. Christianity does not believe in forced conversions. As rightly pointed out, the communal outfits are targeting the religious freedom guaranteed under the Constitution. The VHP is intolerant of the peaceful work being done by the minorities in Orissa.

J. Eden Alexander,

Thanjavur

 

* * *

 

The attack on churches, prayer houses and Christian schools in Orissa is most barbaric and deserves condemnation in strongest terms. The attacks are a clear manifestation of the growing tendency to keep the minority community insecure. The State government should lose no time in identifying the culprits, and should take immediate steps to bring them to book.

 

S.R. Krishnamurthy,

Thanjavur

 

* * *

 

The editorial says Bajrang Dal activists burnt to death Australian missionary Graham Staines. The Justice D.P. Wadhwa Commission which probed the killing ruled out in its report the involvement of any organisation. Not a single person convicted for the murder was a member of the Bajrang Dal.

 

Manmath Deshpande,

Nagpur

 

 Social threat

 

I was surprised on reading the article “The social threat” (Open Page, Dec. 30) which was biased. The author laments the absence of gender consciousness and cites the portrayal of women in television serials among other things to make her point. Why does she miss the point that men too are portrayed badly? They too are portrayed as stupid, violent, irresponsible and promiscuous.

The issue is the wrong portrayal of the entire society. While violence against men is justified, society comes down heavily on violence against women. The reason — the respect society has for them.

Suraj Yadav,

Pune

 

* * *

 

I completely disagree with the portion of the article that refers to gender consciousness. Bad portrayal is not unique to women; men too are depicted by television serial and movie makers as rapists and murderers. I wish the author had been sensitive to that aspect as well instead of making it appear that women alone are victims of increased television viewing. I, for one, have been hurt many times on seeing men portrayed as brainless, idiots, morons and criminals.

 

Rohan Dharesh,

Bangalore

‘If in combating terrorism we undermine values, we are giving up too much’

 

Anita Joshua

 

 

 

Stephen Toope, president of the University of British Columbia (UBC), on education and his primary calling — human rights. Excerpts from an interview:

 

 

 

 

 

 

— Photo: R.V. Moorthy

Stephen Toope: “Governments and NGOs should try and find ways where around certain issues they can build confidence by working together.”

 

Your university stresses a lot on global citizenship. Is it possible post-9/11 when people are getting xenophobic?

 

 

It’s hard but that’s precisely why we have to do it. Post-9/11, there has been a tendency — because of fear — to focus on security concerns that actually generate repression and a lack of engagement across cultures. As universities, we have an even more important role to resist that.

Post-9/11, nations seem to be working overtime to acquire a ‘hard state’ identity.

 

 

We can’t as a set of societies around the world allow ourselves to be governed by fear. It’s hard to come up with rules that will eliminate all possibility of threat. Frankly, it’s not possible. We have to acknowledge that we cannot prevent all threat, all risk in any society. And when we try to do it, we create such regressive and intrusive rules that we actually undermine the very democratic principles that our societies say they want to uphold. It’s not that I want people to be hurt. Terrorism is not the right response to political challenges. But, if one tries to go so far in combating terrorism that we undermine the values we claim to uphold, we are giving up too much. Western societies are doing that, particularly the United States. The United Kingdom, too, has become a very intrusive, monitoring society. I’m surprised the English have allowed themselves to get so drawn into that.

There is a clamour in India currently for hanging a ‘terrorist’...

 

 

There’s very little research to show that capital punishment is effective. So, even if you don’t want to talk about the moral considerations of how it is that states should behave to their own populations, there are a fair set of questions about whether it actually accomplishes any rational policy goal. And, if it doesn’t, then the government should ask itself why it should have capital punishment.

You have headed a number of human rights NGOs. Why is there seldom any meeting ground between governments and NGOs?

 

 

I’m always struck by the lack of confidence on the part of governments when they deal with the NGO community. In Canada, we’ve historically had a pretty collaborative relationship between NGOs and the government. Still, there are moments when you have to criticise. As soon as that happens, the government gets nervous and they don’t like it. All around the world governments don’t like being criticised. There’s nothing unusual about that. What is sad is when governments can’t find the places where there can be cooperation. In India, there should be places of cooperation on gender issues and issues related to minorities and indigenous groups. There are going to be areas of conflict; inevitably on security issues. I’ve seen it in Kashmir when I was with the U.N. Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances. We had cases of disappearances in Indian Occupied or Indian Controlled Kashmir.

The government, although it cooperated, was very uncomfortable about those discussions. That will always be the case. But, governments and NGOs should try and find ways where around certain issues they can build confidence by working together.

Has the U.N. lost its relevance; not just on bigger political issues but on developmental matters where its writ doesn’t go far?

 

 

I strongly believe in multilateralism. If the U.N. didn’t exist, you would have to invent some kind of organisation that provides a forum for all societies to talk to one another. At the same time, I’ve had enough dealing with the U.N. to know that it can be very frustrating; it’s a big bureaucracy. We have to understand that the U.N. is not an independent political actor. The U.N. can’t do anything unless it’s allowed to act by member states. We’ve seen not just big picture questions like Iraq but even in smaller areas that a lot of member states have been increasingly reluctant to give leeway to the U.N. to act. Even India, in areas of human rights, for example, has been very, very controlling. It’s not necessarily healthy because the U.N. is potentially a forum for dialogue and can be a forum for action in specific areas. Look at the immunisation programme. Without the U.N, we wouldn’t have made the progress we have on this front. So, if we give it up, we do so at great risk.

Coming back to UBC, would you like to set up an offshore campus in India?

 

 

No. They are very expensive and the model requires high degrees of subsidisation. Countries that may get into this may find more and more expectations for subsidisation. I wonder whether that’s a good way to spend national resources. Besides, there are always promises that the best scientists and the leading professors would spend a part of the year on these campuses. It doesn’t usually work that way. Scientists are very dependent on the success of their labs. It’s expensive to set up labs. So, they’re not going to have two completely separate processes operating in different countries usually. It’s not easy for anyone to spend a part of their life every year in a different country. Often what happens is that people who get hired in these secondary campuses are not the leading people.

I prefer strong partnerships between universities so that we can develop really serious intellectual relationships crossing barriers of culture and barriers of political difference.

 

Political dynasts and martyrdom

 

Dynastic politics is South Asia’s common currency. Whether it is Sri Lanka or India or Bangladesh or Pakistan, the dynastic principle seems effortlessly to defy the republicanism of constitutions, political systems, and democratic processes. It mocks the spirit of freedom struggles and movements against dictatorial rule. It seems peculiarly at home in parties that claim to be pro-poor, have ‘roti, kapda, makan’ (bread, clothing, shelter) as their mobilisi ng slogan, and tirelessly chant the mantra of popular democracy. The principle of dynastic privileging in the democratic arena naturally breeds a sense of entitlement to the republican throne — even among the most improbable of presumptive heirs. The tragic irony of 19-year-old Oxford student, Bilawal Zardari — catapulted by a brutal killing and the sacred principle of dynastic succession to the ‘chairmanship’ of the Pakistan People’s Party — extolling democracy as the best ‘revenge’ on those who assassinated his mother and urging that the party be run “democratically … for the poor and downtrodden people” of his country will be an enduring memory of 2007. Equally striking was what the young man said at the press conference about the sacrificial principle in dynastic politics: his father, Asif Ali Zardari, would not be succeeding to the top post (as his mother had willed) and he was taking up the job because “the chairmanship of the party is a position occupied by martyrs, and we do not know for how long my father will be able to keep his position.” It is a terrible thought but it can be substantiated with facts: in more than one South Asian case, dynastic successors have fallen victim to assassins’ bullets or bombs.

The tragic sacrifices, in turn, inspire millions of people, generate groundswells of sympathy, bring about sharp swings in the public mood, and power political parties to win elections. The political situation in Pakistan, caught in a maelstrom, has been transformed overnight by the martyrdom of Benazir Bhutto, a courageous but deeply flawed political leader whose record in opposition was far more creditable than her performance in office. Towards the end of her life, her popularity in Pakistan clearly suffered from the impression that she had struck a less than honourable deal with the discredited dictator, Pervez Musharraf, and that, unlike her chief political rival, Nawaz Sharif, she was willing to contest elections under dubious conditions in order to have a third term as Prime Minister. Post-Benazir, a PPP dominated by Asif Zardari is poised to make a clean sweep of the parliamentary election, which is scheduled for January 8 and cannot, in any case, be put off by more than a few weeks. Even though they are likely to be the losers, the Pakistan Muslim League (N) and its chief, Mr. Sharif, have done the right thing in agreeing to reverse their decision to boycott the polls. Paradoxically, as Bilawal Bhutto Zardari might have implied, the martyrdom of his mother promises to provide a democratic and perhaps even bloodless way out of the deep crisis in which Pakistan finds itself.

 

 An end to the stalemate

 

Belgium’s new interim dispensation, headed by the outgoing liberal Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt and drawn from rival parties representing the two main linguistic regions, ends a six-month political stalemate. The deadlock in the formation of government by the victors in the June 2007 elections — constituents of the so-called “orange-blue” umbrella coalition — reflects the strains experienced by the Belgians in the country’s evolution f rom a unitary to a federal system. Talks on a common programme broke down on at least four occasions and the Flemish Christian Democrat leader and potential prime minister had to step down twice as the official negotiator. His party’s cohabitation with the far-right secessionist and anti-immigrant ally on an agenda of self-rule for the Dutch-speaking Flanders in the north is at the root of the current crisis.

Another sticking point in the conservative-led coalition has been the demand for the bifurcation of the electoral district of the Brussels Capital Region, where French is the language of the majority and where the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation has its headquarters. After gaining independence from the Netherlands in 1830, Belgium’s predominantly French and Dutch populations co-existed in the cosy political comfort of the uniquely Belgian consociational model of democracy, characterised by mutual accommodation among political elites. This phase of innocence eventually gave way to the assertion of competing demands for linguistic and cultural autonomy from the mid-20th century, culminating in a series of constitutional reforms from 1970 that led towards a federation of power-sharing arrangements. Extreme nationalist forces have sought to exploit the economic backwardness of the French-dominated areas for articulating separatist claims of the prosperous Flanders. To suggest a break-up of the country, as commentators have tended to do, is perhaps premature, if not downright naïve, and it exaggerates the importance of the far-right that is a fringe element. Belgium’s formidable centrist and left forces may well rise to contain this misapprehension

 Agricultural strategy, internal security & sovereignty

 

M.S. Swaminathan

 

 

 

 

 

---

If the National Policy for Farmers 2007 is implemented in letter and spirit by the Central and State governments, we can say goodbye to the era of farmers’ suicides.

---

 

 

The year 2007 ended with some significant steps in areas relating to internal security and food sovereignty. In November 2007, alarmed by the persistence of agrarian distress in several parts of the country resulting in those engaged in a life-sustaining profession taking their own lives, the Government of India placed a National Policy for Farmers in Parliament. The document is based on the draft submitted by the National Commission on Farmers in October 2006. This Policy , the first of its kind in the history of either colonial or independent India, calls for a paradigm shift from a commodity-centred to a human-centred approach in agricultural planning and programmes. The aim of the Policy is to stimulate attitudes and actions that should result in assessing agricultural progress in terms of improvement in the income of farm families not only to meet their consumption requirements, but also to enhance their capacity to invest in farm-related activities. The National Policy for Farmers has for the first time recognised the “need to focus on the economic well being of the farmers, rather than just on production.” If this Policy is implemented in letter and spirit by the Central and State governments, we can say goodbye to the era of farmers’ suicides.

Another area where some recent policy decisions were announced relates to containing the threat to internal security caused by the spread of Naxalite movements. Here, the major focus has been on strengthening police and para-military forces and providing them with better arms and equipment. While this is important, we should learn lessons from the tragic human consequences of the U.S.-led strategies to contain terrorism. History teaches us that violence breeds violence. Even as the Chief Minister’s Conference on Internal Security announced the decision to strengthen the police-centric approach to contain the Naxalite danger, there was a report that Naxalite leaders have also decided to modernise their weapon power. Where will this end?

A third development is in the area of food sovereignty. India’s decision to import wheat is facing problems related to both cost and quality. The international prices of food grains are going up, partly due to the steep increase in the price of petroleum products and the consequent desire to produce more bio-fuels, leading to the diversion of prime farm land from food to fuel production. In his book, Hand of Destiny, C. Subramaniam, who was Minister for Food and Agriculture from 1964 to 1967, has described vividly the humiliation he had to undergo while seeking urgent food shipment under the PL 480 programme of the U.S. Indira Gandhi’s decision to build substantial food reserves was related to her clear understanding of the relationship between food self-reliance and national sovereignty.

What should we do in 2008 to concurrently strengthen internal security and national sovereignty? The means to both lies in accelerated agricultural advance based on conservation farming, or what I have been referring to as the “ever-green revolution” pathway of improving productivity in perpetuity without associated ecological harm.

Let me take the example of Jharkhand, a Naxalite hotspot, and examine what needs to be done to avoid the gradual collapse of a democratic system of governance.

Of Jharkhand’s total population of 27 million, nearly 21 million, or 78 per cent live in villages. Nearly 49 per cent of the population lives below the poverty line, and India’s poverty line is probably the most austerely defined in the world. In some districts like Gumla and Simdega, where Naxalite activity is serious, more than 85 per cent of the predominantly tribal workforce depends on crop and animal husbandry and minor forest produce for its livelihood. Over 80 per cent of the farm holdings belong to the small and marginal farmer category. More than 80 per cent of the average annual rainfall of 1300 mm to 1400 mm is received between June and September, when farmers cultivate crops such as paddy, maize, pulses and oilseeds. Productivity is low and the marketable surplus is consequently modest. Systematic steps to harvest and store the rainwater during the South West monsoon period and to use the conserved water for a second October to March crop are yet to be initiated. Although the groundwater availability is satisfactory, tube-well irrigation is rare. The availability of electricity as well as rural communications are poor. As a result, most of the land remains fallow from October to May. This in turn results in seasonal unemployment, affecting nearly half the population of Jharkhand. What are the implications of nearly one crore people remaining without work for over six months in a year?

The National Rural Employment Guarantee Programme provides some relief, but this programme provides opportunities only for unskilled work. Thanks to the expansion of opportunities for education, more and more young women and men are becoming educated, but there is no corresponding growth in opportunities for skilled employment. In the two million hectares of idle land during winter and summer months and in the ten million idle hands of cultivators, we can find seeds of resentment and disillusionment with the current priorities in development, thereby creating conditions conducive for recruitment to the Naxalite cadre.

Guns will not solve the problem without coincident efforts to grow two blades of grass where only one blade grew before. Unless agricultural development and the police pathway of strengthening internal security are integrated, we will see the growth of violence and, kidnapping and the worsening of law and order in States such as Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and the other States confronted with the problem of crores of men and women who do not know where their next meal will come from. A second crop, particularly a high-value and low water-requiring one such as pulses, oilseeds, medicinal plants, vegetables or fodder crops, will make all the difference between poverty-induced under-nutrition and adequate nutrition and viable livelihoods for millions of farm families now depending upon a single crop. The single monsoon season crop also faces risks like drought and floods.

Effective rainwater harvesting, sustainable use of groundwater and good irrigation water management will help raise at least two good crops, as shown by the residents of Hiware Bazar in Ahmednagar district, who received the 2007 National Water Prize and where no one remains below the poverty line. If groundwater can also be tapped with diesel or solar pumps (in the absence of electricity), even 3 crops can be raised.

What we urgently need in Naxalite affected areas, is an Irrigation for Internal Security Programme. This can be undertaken with funds from Bharat Nirman, the National Food Security and Horticulture Missions and the Rs. 25,000 crore Rashtiya Krishi Vikas Yojana.

The Irrigation for Internal Security Programme should have three dimensions. First, the productivity of current kharif crops like paddy should be doubled with a proper mix of technology, services and pricing and marketing policies. Secondly, one more additional crop, which can fetch the maximum income per unit of water, should be grown using harvested or groundwater. Finally, non-farm employment and income-earning opportunities like sericulture, the production of vegetables, flowers and mushrooms, agro-processing and other market-driven enterprises should be enlarged. Youth will be attracted to agriculture only if brain (that is, technology) and brawn can be combined in farm work.

Under conditions of small farms and fragmented holdings, Jal Swaraj or water security can be achieved only through group endeavour in rain water harvesting and sustainable and equitable use. Lift irrigation using hand-operated treadle pumps can provide crop life-saving irrigation. Community tube wells and community nurseries of location-specific varieties of crop plants will help to improve both crop productivity and profitability. Education, social mobilisation and regulation will all be necessary to promote scientific watershed development and water management. Along the watershed, market driven microenterprises supported by micro-credit can be promoted, leading to the emergence of bioindustrial watersheds. For this purpose, Gram Sabhas should organise Pani Panchayats that can help to ensure effective community cooperation in water saving and sharing.

It will be wrong to ignore the multi-dimensional nature of the Naxalite problem. However, as a single step, creating opportunities for employment from October to May through community managed minor irrigation programmes, leading to year-round work and income security, will make the largest contribution to peace and security. Just as the Government of India has introduced special programmes in 33 districts affected by severe agrarian crisis, it will be prudent to introduce immediately an Irrigation for Internal Security programme, so that there will be work for millions of tribal and rural families from October to May 2008-09. Such a programme will also lead to the production of additional food grains and thereby strengthen food sovereignty.

As stressed in the National Policy for Farmers, there is need for a change in the mindset of those living in shining India towards those producing their food in suffering India. A beginning can be made in 2008 to achieve an attitudinal revolution by recognising the contributions of outstanding farm women and men through “National Sovereignty Saviour Awards.” This will help to underline the pivotal role of farm families in safeguarding internal security and external respect.

The major constraint encountered in implementing the special packages for farmers’ suicide prone districts is the near impossibility of bringing convergence and synergy among the numerous programmes operated by different government departments. The Irrigation for Internal Security Programme may meet with the same fate, unless government, private and academic sectors and civil society organisations work together as Members of a Peace and Security symphony orchestra. This will also be in the enlightened self-interest of politicians, industrialists, public servants, the police and the general public. Grain is a better catalyst of peace and goodwill than gun.

(Professor M.S. Swaminathan is Member of Parliament (Rajya Sabha) and former Chairman, National Commission on Farmers.)

A year of hard decisions statecraft

 

Harish Khare

 

 

 

 

 

---

Beginning January 2008, the country will drift into election mode. It is up to the Congress leadership to decide whether it wants to be on top of the momentum or be swept along.

---

 

 

Benazir Bhutto has already displaced Narendra Modi from the magazine covers. Concerns and calculations have changed within a few days; nonetheless, the dangerous implications of the Modi victory in Gandhinagar and equally troublesome downstream effects of the Bhutto assassination in Rawalpindi will need to be dealt with competently and confidently, that too in a manner as not to aggravate further our collective travails or to erode further our democratic institutions. That simply means that the next year will make exacting demands on those who choose to be our rulers and redeemers. And, as it were, all the decisions, hard ones, are for the ruling establishment to make.

The first and foremost decision the Manmohan Singh-Sonia Gandhi duo, along with whomsoever it deems fit to consult, will need to take is when to have the elections to the next Lok Sabha. This is the traditional prerogative of the Prime Minister in a cabinet system of government; but, more than a constitutional strategy, the timing of the general elections is the supreme political decision available to a ruling party. Not only will the Congress leadership need to decide the timing of the next Lok Sabha elections, the decision will also involve on what issues, under whose leadership, and in whose company to approach the electorate. If there is one lesson to be learnt from the Gujarat experience, it is that an effective electoral strategy hinges on manufacturing a credible narrative and an equally credible narrator.

In other words, the Congress leadership will need to tell the country unequivocally as to who its prime ministerial mascot at the time of the next Lok Sabha elections is. The principal opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, has already announced its prime ministerial candidate, and the collective energies of the National Democratic Alliance would gravitate towards L.K. Advani’s prime ministerial ambitions. The Congress will not be able to ignore the public expectations over the prime ministerial leadership question; it cannot repeat its 2004 formulations that the elected Congress MPs would choose the next Prime Minister.

This takes us into the very heart of the Congress priestly code: the fiction has to be maintained that Ms Gandhi is the only leader who generates any kind of popular and electoral appeal. The sub-theme of this priestly code is that the only other person who can be permitted to make any claims of charisma is young Rahul Gandhi.

Leadership dilemma

 

 

The lack of ambiguity on the leadership hierarchy could itself become an asset to a political organisation, but for familiar reasons the Congress has managed to convert the Rahul Gandhi opportunity into a liability. Let us reframe the Congress leadership dilemma: what to do with Dr. Singh? Any hint of Dr. Singh’s presence at the top of the prime ministerial line-up is bound to bring out the worst instinct among senior Congress leaders, who have spent a lifetime of intrigue in the service of the Nehru-Gandhi family. At the same time, the party cannot possibly disown a serving Prime Minister whose personal integrity and clean image stand out as the shinning attributes in an otherwise uninspiring establishment. No major scandal has erupted around Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Admitted, yes, Dr. Singh’s is the persona that cannot be easily marketed at the election time.

But, Ms Gandhi, having made the “supreme sacrifice” in May 2004 cannot now possibly tell the country that she would be amenable to being made Prime Minister. She can be trusted to have come to terms with her own limitations as well as to have acquired a reasonably decent idea of how complex the prime ministerial job is.

Still, the Congress has the option to dump Dr. Singh and boldly opt for Rahul Gandhi as its prime ministerial candidate. On paper, a standoff between an 80-year-old Mr. Advani and a 40-year-old Rahul Gandhi could be an extremely attractive electoral proposition; the country is young and no longer seems willing to be mired in old memories of the freedom struggle or in ancient myths of the Ramayana or the Mahabharata. The Advani-Rahul contrast can be marketed creatively, except that the young man seems to be totally impervious to the demands of the democratic leadership. He has not even given an indication that he has the burning desire to want the job, leave alone providing any inspirational flashes. Leadership is not a part time assignment but a consuming affair that leaves very little room for personal indulgences.

The leadership issue apart, the Congress will need to be clear-headed about its relationship with the Left between now and the next Lok Sabha elections. As it were, even without the disagreement over the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal there has been little political warmth between the Left and the Congress. In fact, it would be foolish for the Congress leadership to ignore the simple fact that there is a convergence between the BJP and the Left: both want a weak Congress, in the short term as well as in the long term. Both have done their bit in weakening the Congress; both have reduced the UPA government into a bumbling proposition; and, both have done their very best to heap ridicule on the Prime Minister. To be fair, neither the BJP nor the Left is under any obligation to help the Congress regain its earlier political dominance. Given this unvarnished play of realities, the Congress leadership will need to factor in the future of the terms of its relationship with the Left when it takes a decision about the next Lok Sabha elections. The Congress cannot possibly hope to win the electorate’s confidence by telling the nation that the best it can offer is more of the same — divided authority and checkmated decision-making at the Centre. Even if the Congress decides to maintain diplomatic silence on its ties with the Left after the next Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led opposition can be expected to make it into an election issue.

If anything, the continuous turmoil and uncertainty in our neighbourhood should suggest that the electorate — especially key stake-holders such as the middle classes and the corporate business houses — will want to see a reasonably coherent governing arrangement in New Delhi. People have never voted back a government that has given the impression of being internally distracted or otherwise hobbled when it comes to taking hard decisions. Even in 1999, the voters opted for the National Democratic Alliance notwithstanding its colossal failure to detect what was happening in Kargil; the voters preferred the Vajpayee-led “working” government because the Sonia Gandhi-led opposition was deemed even less capable of providing stability at the Centre.

The Gujarat outcome has understandably produced despondency as also expectedly reinforced timidity among the second-rate voices that crowd the core of the decision-making apparatus in New Delhi. Yet the Congress leadership has to make up its mind: does it want to remain content to serve out the next 16 months before being voted out of power or to reinvent itself over the next 12 months as an electorally saleable proposition. If the Congress leadership does take the hard decision that it still has the ideas and the energy to help the polity find a working governing arrangement, then it will have to address itself to the deepening sense of disquiet in the country at large. Nine per cent growth is all right. All the more reason that the middle classes need the assurance that their economic prosperity will not be jeopardised on account of governmental instability, lawlessness or failing institutions.

Simply put, the country will need to feel confident that its security is in more competent hands. This ties up with the larger requirement of assuring the country that the government of the day has some idea how to deal effectively with terrorism. The government has neither been able to make the moral case for caring for the minorities — including the Sachar Committee recommendations — nor has it convinced the country that the government is not pitifully quagmired in the “appeasement” at the expense of the simple and unambiguous requirement of enforcing the rule of law. Depending on the ability or inability of the Congress leadership to take hard decisions, the coming year could end up deciding irreversibly the future of India as an emerging power in an increasingly uncertain world. The Indian state would need to be protected against unhelpful players abroad as also against drift and indecision at home.

 

Most important election of our lifetime’

 

Michael Tomasky

 

 

 

 

 

---

Whichever candidates the voters nominate, the choice before Americans in November 2008 will be stark indeed.

---

 

 

 

— PHOTO: AP

Republican presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee at a rally in Indianola, Iowa on Saturday.

 

The best news as 2008 dawns, of course, is that this most endless of presidential campaigns now finally reaches a point at which something actually happens. Finally the people will speak, starting on Thursday in Iowa. So what will they say?

The races in both parties have developed along very unexpected lines, making this probably the most fascinating presidential election in decades. Let us start with the Republicans. Here we have the most unpopular sitting President since Richard Nixon. Significant majorities of his countrymen have long since concluded that they made a mistake in electing him; that he is not up to the job; that he basically lied them into a war; that his domestic policies have been at best no great shakes; and that the conservative ideology to which he has been in thrall has not served the country well, to put it mildly.

And yet, by and large, the Republican candidates are running on exactly the same policies that George W. Bush has pursued. All the major Republican candidates want to “stay the course” in Iraq, denouncing any discussion of withdrawal as evidence of pusillanimity. All see the fight against terrorism in more or less Bushian terms. All want to make the Bush tax cuts, scheduled to sunset in 2010, permanent — even John McCain, who at the time voted against them. All have promised the leaders of the Christian Right that they will appoint Supreme Court judges “in the mould of” Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas.

What this euphemistic language means is that whatever a candidate’s previous positions on abortion and gay rights — Rudy Giuliani, for instance, has supported both — the leaders of the religious conservative movement have exacted commitments from all the Grand Old Party candidates to appoint the kind of judges they want, and that matters far more than past positions.

Healthcare priority

 

 

There’s more. Healthcare is a priority in this election. But to hear these Republicans, you’d never know it. Their healthcare plans range from cynical to inadequate. Climate change? They barely acknowledge the problem and are particularly loathe to acknowledging that human activity has contributed to it. They continue to insist, as Republicans since Ronald Reagan have, that the only real domestic enemy the American people face is the federal government, which they continue to want to starve.

It is pretty astonishing, really — we’re at the tail end of a failed presidency, and the people running to succeed it are promising to continue its failed policies.

Now, many observers would say, well, they’re just pandering to their party’s right-wing base, and once one of them secures the nomination, he will tack to the centre. Undoubtedly, he will, for tactical reasons. But the real question is how the next Republican will govern should he happen to win. And the answer to that question is that there’s every reason to assume that he will be just as a conservative as Mr. Bush for one simple reason: the interest groups that run the GOP will not brook much deviation from the standard line.

Key interest groups

 

 

Those interest groups are three. The neocons run foreign policy — the Iraq disaster has not affected their influence in the GOP one whit. The theocons run social policy. And the radical anti-taxers run domestic policy. Until forces inside the GOP rise up to challenge these interests, any Republican administration will be roughly as conservative as Mr. Bush. The candidates have slightly different theories of stasis, they will tinker around this edge or that, but that’s about all you can say.

On the Democratic side, there is far more divergence. Not so much on policy — they are all for universal or nearly universal healthcare, for getting out of Iraq, for doing more for unions, for bringing some equity and progressivity to our taxation system and so on. If you’d asked me a year ago what the major Democrats’ positions on the leading issues would be, I would not have guessed that they’d be this uniformly liberal.

What they differ on is how they and the country will accomplish these things. The astute analyst and writer, Mark Schmitt, was the first to identify this phenomenon, naming the Democratic race the “theory of change” primary. John Edwards’ theory of change is that the system is corrupt, spoiled by corporate greed, and so the way to get change is to wage a kind of class war against it. Barack Obama’s theory of change is to ask independents and conservatives of good faith to work with him on encircling resistant forces and changing the system. Hillary Clinton’s theory of change is that the system is failing Americans in certain particular respects and that it is best massaged by someone with years of experience working within it.

The Democratic caucus-goers of Iowa will tell us on Thursday night which of these theories, retailed to them at close range for many months, they have embraced, although the outcome seems likely to be close, so the question won’t yet be settled. Republican caucus-goers seem more likely to tell us that they like Mike Huckabee’s version of stasis. But even that will not reveal much, because Iowa’s GOP caucus-goers are heavily weighted toward religious conservatives such as Mr. Huckabee.

Whichever theory of change Democratic voters nominate, and whichever theory of statis Republican voters select, the choice before Americans next November will be stark. In 2004, many Americans, particularly liberals fearful about a second Bush term, took to calling that election “the most important of my lifetime.” And it was, for a while. Now this one is.

(Michael Tomasky is editor of Guardian America.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

— ©Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2007 

Subcontinent politics

 

The appointment of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari as PPP chairman is an emotional, distress reaction, often witnessed in the subcontinent which proves that the region is yet to mature as a democracy. Politics in South Asia still remains personality, not programme, oriented. There are a few political parties in India like the Left and the BJP which have not succumbed to family-centric politics so far. By making a teenager head the biggest political party in Pakistan, which is supposed to be the second most dangerous territory after Iraq, the PPP leaders are not doing any good to the bereaved family of Benazir Bhutto or the people of Pakistan.

Rettavayal S. Krishnaswamy,

Chennai

 

* * *

 

The PPP’s decision shows that major political parties in the subcontinent prefer familial succession to a truly democratically-elected leader. Several parties in India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan squander away every opportunity to do away with the practice of dynastic succession in the event of a vacuum caused by the exit of a popular leader. This practice will not foster true democratic values in the parties. It is difficult to comprehend how they can convince the electorate of their commitment to democratic values.

P. Prasand Thampy,

Thiruvalla

 

* * *

 

The appointment of a political novice as party chairman, overlooking other senior members, smacks of sycophancy. Even more ridiculous is the disclosure that Benazir wrote a political will saying her husband should succeed her as party leader. The principle of democracy stands negated when political leaders begin to treat their parties as their own property and fail to recognise the people who have toiled for years. A part of the blame is also due to the senior leaders themselves, who seek to ride the sympathy wave, generated by their leaders’ assassination, to power.

C.P. Prasanth Gopal,

Chennai

 

* * *

 

Besides adding to the list of tragic end of leaders in the Nehru-Gandhi and Bhutto families, Benazir’s assassination has exposed the harsh political realities prevalent in India and Pakistan. The PPP and the Congress have both been unable to look beyond the families of its leaders. In both the cases, the individual became the face of the party to its countrymen.

Both the parties did not develop second-rung leaders who could assume leadership on merit. After losing Benazir in tragic circumstances, the PPP is forcing the leadership on her son because he has the famous Bhutto surname. The Congress and the PPP need to understand that individuals and a family name do not make a party.

Krishna Kumar,

Ahmedabad

 

* * *

 

Bilawal’s appointment has sent the message that in South Asian countries such as India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan, top political posts rest heavily on family legacy. The tendency does not augur well for healthy politics.

Jetling Yellosa,

Warangal

 

* * *

 

In her will, Benazir nominated her husband to succeed her as PPP leader. When alive, she assumed the title of the party’s chairperson for life. When she could not run even her party democratically, how can anyone describe her as a great democrat? Her death is certainly tragic but let us not become emotional and describe her in terms that she does not deserve, given that she ran one of the most corrupt governments in Pakistan.

Mohd. Salahuddin,

Mumbai

 

* * *

 

After all the eulogies showered on Benazir as a champion of democracy, her will came as an anti-climax. The anointment of her teenage son as PPP leader, with no role for the party’s rank and file, is a negation of democracy and a clear evidence of the grip that political dynasties have on our destinies in the subcontinent, be it in politics, movies or any other aspect of our lives.

M. Rao,

Ollur

 

* * *

 

The PPP’s decision to appoint the 19-year-old as chairman of the party is a reflection of South Asia’s political reality, marked by dynastic politics. True, Pakistan does not have a long democratic tradition. But when even democratic India is not immune to the attraction of political dynasties, Bilawal taking over the reins was along expected lines.

J.S. Acharya,

Hyderabad

 

* * *

 

Although Bilawal’s appointment as PPP leader may pass off as situational expediency, the retrograde tendency, similar to Rajiv Gandhi’s coronation in our country, is prevalent largely in South Asia. The inherent feudal attitude behind this circumscribes the creation and growth of political parties based on certain ideologies. Only parties based on a strong secular economic agenda can contribute to a dynamically evolving democracy.

Kasim Sait,

 

The assassination

 

The ongoing row over the manner in which Benazir was killed is pointless. The fact that an armed assailant was able to have such close access to her exposes the huge security lapse. I wonder why the Pakistan government is making statements that are going to be of no help to it.

Meenakshi Alagesan,

Karaikudi

 

* * *

 

Islamabad’s claim that Benazir died not of bullet injuries but of hitting her head against the sunroof of her vehicle is ridiculous. Until a world body extramural to Pakistan is appointed to probe the real cause of the killing, the incident will in perpetuity remain a whodunit.

H. Narayanan,

New Delhi

 

* * *

 

Why did the Pakistan government fail to provide Benazir an adequate security cover? President Pervez Musharraf is certainly in for hard times as international and domestic pressure increases on him and Pakistan sinks into chaos.

Anuj Surana,

Chennai

 

* * *

 

Television footage and pictures in the print media are an obvious pointer to the government’s apathy towards Benazir’s security. The presence of an armed assassin and a suicide bomber within a few metres of her car exposes a huge chink in the security armour. The very tragic and shameful incident has definitely put President Musharraf, darling of George W. Bush, under the scanner.

Md. Shad Jamal,

Puducherry

 

* * *

 

There is a remarkable coincidence between the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi and Benazir Bhutto. Both were assassinated before the elections (while campaigning) just as it appeared that they were on the threshold of being elected to power again. Both were former Prime Ministers, wards of former Prime Ministers who died unnatural deaths, and hailed from prominent political families.

S. Meiyappan,

Chennai